How to Avoid the Next War with the US
The United States military build-up in Iran's vicinity is an ominous development that raises the spectre of a new inter-state war in the Middle East, similar to the 2002 invasion of Iraq. This means that the diplomatic rounds between the two countries is likely destined to fail and simply prove as catalysts for war. Iran is perceived to be at its weakest in decades, representing a divided nation with only 15 to 20 percent of the population solidly supporting the political system, while the rest is either hostile or at best indifferent, thus constituting one of the main vulnerabilities of the Islamic Republic, which is plagued with mass discontent, economic hardship, and political disunity. While it remains to be seen how the general population would react in the aftermath of a US military assault on Iran, it is a sure bet that because of the large-scale repression of protesters, the regime is unable to count on a popular support.
For sure, Iran will put up a fight and inflict some pain on its adversaries, but chances are that the US will dominate the theatre of conflict while incurring some costs, realistically speaking. Thus, war avoidance should be Iran's number one priority, and, to this effect, the following steps are highly recommended:
(a) Iran's willingness to suspend the uranium enrichment process, just as it did in 2004 in its European diplomacy.
(b) offering a non-aggression understanding with Israel, which is a UN member state.
(c) new transparency measures with the IAEA
(d) general amnesty for the political prisoners and an independent fact-finding commission to investigate and identify the culprits in the recent massacre of civilians.
(e) early and unfettered elections for the Parliament.
(f) release of all political prisoners.
(g) general amnesty for the protesters.
(h) compensation to the families of killed protesters.
(I) normalization of relations with the US;
(k) commercial agreements with the US;
(l) punishment of whoever has played a role in the repression of protesters.
It is doubtful at this stage that Iran's compromises above-mentioned would suffice to prevent a US attack on Iran. Nonetheless, the imperative of peace dictates no other course of action. The alternative of threading a combative attitude toward the US will in all likelihood result in a serious setback threatening Iran's unity and integrity. The worst mistake is to ignore the US arms build-up and ignore the fact that only one year ago, Trump proved that he is unmoved by threats from Iran. However, the same should not be said about US, which is prone to a 'rent a superpower' syndrome led by Israel.
In conclusion, it is time for a major political change in Iran, and the adoption of serious policy adjustments above-mentioned, otherwise the winds of war will soon blow over this ancient land, now threatened with war and dismemberment.