Iran in 1395: Post-Relief Strategy-Making
The year 1394 ended amidst numerous bitter and sweet developments for the people of Iran, the Middle East and the world. Last year was a year full of hope for Iranians wherein many foreign policy deadlocks were broken with the prudence and diplomacy of the 11th administration. One of these locks was the unnecessary crisis of Iran’s nuclear program which placed our country under sanctions and in international isolation. Thus, one of the most important developments of the past year was the achievement of a nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 which led to the lifting of sanctions and annulment of Security Council resolutions which were adopted against Iran and Iran’s return to its real status in regional and international relations. This agreement which was reached after long discussions and negotiations between Iran and the world powers provides vast opportunities for Iran’s trade and economy due to the lifting of sanctions and limitations in the banking system and the export of oil.
Nonetheless, it is not only the economy which will blossom after the implementation of the JCPOA; Iran’s foreign policy will also gradually return to its real status in the international scene. Following the adoption and implementation of the JCPOA, the power and stability of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the region, the balanced and peaceful approach of the 11th administration and economic and trade opportunities, Iran has become the center of attention for other countries. Besides the competition between different European trade delegations and the visits made by numerous European political figures, Iran’s tourism has also been paid attention to.
On this basis, among eastern powers, China, which has been Iran’s ally during the sanctions era, is interested in the expansion of relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The hostile attitude and accusations made by the western countries against Iran have also been reduced after the nuclear agreement and they now stress Iran’s vital role in the resolution of regional crises. Inviting Iran in the conferences related to the Syrian crisis and emphasizing its role in the Middle East were the new approaches of the West with regard to Iran after the JCPOA and Iran has become the center of the fight against terrorism.
Nonetheless, the year 1394 was not a hopeful year for the people of the region and the world. One of the most bitter events of this year was the worsening of the crises in Iraq and Syria. On one hand, civil wars have destroyed the infrastructure of both countries and postponed their path towards development. On the other hand, insecurity has led to the mass migration of war refugees to neighboring and European countries. The pictures of these refugees showed the violation of their rights upon arrival in these European countries.
These are not the only consequences of the crises in Syria and Iraq. The weakening of the governments of these two countries provided a suitable atmosphere for the growth of terrorist groups particularly ISIS. These radical groups were, thus, able to expand their territories in Iraq, Syria and Libya and also launch extra-regional terrorist attacks and create an atmosphere of fear in the US and Europe. The horrifying terrorist attacks in Paris were one of the shocking events of last year which showed that terrorism is not limited to the Middle East. It also indicated that when a radical idea is formed and supported as a tool to overthrow governments, its fire will reach their supporters as well. As a result of these attacks, western countries showed more determination in their fight against terrorism. They also led to the adoption of the Security Council resolution in drawing a road map for the diplomatic resolution of the Syrian crisis and cutting the financial resources of ISIS.
Western countries were not the only countries which sought ways to end the crisis in Syria. Last year was the year for Russia to show its power in the military and diplomatic relations of the Middle East and present its proposals for the resolution of this region’s crises. While claiming that the western countries are not serious in resolving these crises and even helping these terrorist groups, Putin decided to have a military presence in Syria and turn the world into a bipolar system.
Year 1394 was the worst year for the unity and solidarity of the world of Islam. During the first days of this year, Saudi Arabia, which had made hasty decisions in its foreign policy after the changes made in its government, openly interfered in the internal affairs of Yemen and launched an attack against it and, besides killing the Muslim people of this country and destroying its infrastructure, caused the radical groups of Yemen to strengthen. On the other hand, further concentration of Saudi officials on foreign issues particularly Yemen led to their mismanagement of the Hajj ceremonies which led to the death of many Muslims from different countries and protests of Islamic countries including Iran. The execution of Sheikh Nimr in Saudi Arabia was another issue which further affected the already cold relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and led to the bitter incident of the attack against the Saudi embassy in Iran. Despite Iran’s attempts in condemning this incident, Saudi Arabia, in pursuance of its hostile policies, used it against Iran; even though only four countries from among 57 Muslim countries of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council decided to cut their relations with Iran. On the other hand, the differences between the oil-rich Islamic countries were also reflected in the oil markets and due to the lack of collaboration in the production ceiling, the price of oil reached its lowest in the last 13 years.
On this basis, year 1394 ended while the world and the Middle East are not more secure than the past. Despite their demands, many people from the Middle East still suffer from their unpopular governments. Terrorist groups have expanded and their methods have become more hostile and violent. More importantly, lack of unity and solidarity among the Islamic countries and their different positions have further led to the growing role and influence of the eastern and western powers. But under such hopeless conditions of the region, the situation of the Islamic Republic of Iran is different; Iran has gloriously held his head high amidst the fire and ashes of the Middle East and is determined to open the locks of this region with its prudence and wisdom.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry which, by mobilizing all its capabilities, was able to overcome the nuclear issue through a diplomatic dialogue, is now in a position to pursue this method in the regional and international scene. During the last days of 1394, the Islamic Republic of Iran experienced a peaceful transfer of power by holding a successful and safe election with high participation of the people. Iran proved to the world that not only was its foreign policy astonishing for the world, but its internal methods could also be used as an example for the countries of the region. Through its active diplomacy, Iran can now provide the grounds for a better atmosphere in the Middle East.
The Islamic Republic of Iran must first make great efforts to unite the Islamic countries and, by holding different conferences and inviting the heads of these countries, create an atmosphere to resolve their differences. There is no doubt that confidence-building measures taken by Iran and the policy of détente which changed the approach of the western countries with regard to Iran will be helpful in resolving our differences with the Islamic states and finding the common points. The establishment of a stable and secure region, the return of an economic approach in OPEC and balancing the oil market, removing the excuses of Saudi Arabia and Turkey in introducing Iran as a threat will be the results of Iran’s efforts in taking steps in resolving the differences between the Islamic countries.
The next step should be the deepening of the development-seeking foreign policy of Iran which will be presented in the expansion of political and economic relations with different countries of the world. The result would be the transformation of the Islamic Republic of Iran into an active power in different areas. This policy will cause Iran to play a significant role in the resolution of regional crises and the fight against terrorism and improvement of economic and political relations with other countries of the world. Through diplomacy and dialogue, Iran could safeguard its national interests and help regional and international peace and stability.