Nothing Has Changed for Better
ElBaradei’s latest report may not have a favorable impact on Iran-Five plus One September negotiations. Commentary by Seyyed Jalal Sadatian.
Since the release of IAEA’s latest report on Iran’s nuclear activities, speculations over its impact on September negotiations of Five plus One have become rife. In Iran, officials in charge of the nuclear case have expressed their satisfaction with the content of the report. Seyyed Jalal Sadatian, international affairs analyst has commented on the repercussions of the report for the future of Iran’s nuclear program:
Optimistic comments after ElBaradei’s last report are mostly expressed by Iranian officials and state-run media. However, before the release of the report many analysts knew that the last account of IAEA Director General would not be that satisfying.
From the viewpoint of IAEA authorities the realistic points –and those are called the negative points by Iranian analysts- override the positive ones. One of the particulars mentioned by ElBaradei is Iran ongoing uranium enrichment, though the process has slowed down. In fact, ElBaradei has habitually left the discussion open and that is what both Iranian and foreign analysts expected.
The report will cause an awkward situation for the upcoming September nuclear talks between Iran and Five plus One. Iran believes that the entire decisions made against it are political. With post-election developments it may expect West’s decision to become further politicized. I can not think of a congenial atmosphere in next week’s negotiations, something which could bring harder days for the Iranian administration and prompt heavier sanctions. Plus, it does not seem that Iran’s constructive measures such as continuing cooperation with IAEA and allowing for extended inspection of nuclear facilities could affect Five plus One decisions.
Russia and China have lent Iran support during its challenge with West over the nuclear program. Meanwhile, their economic interests urge them to keep Iran as a major financial partner and try to perform a role as moderators between Iran and West. However, Iran’s current state and global pressures may force Russia and China to draw back and cease supporting Iran.
Optimistic comments after ElBaradei’s last report are mostly expressed by Iranian officials and state-run media. However, before the release of the report many analysts knew that the last account of IAEA Director General would not be that satisfying.
From the viewpoint of IAEA authorities the realistic points –and those are called the negative points by Iranian analysts- override the positive ones. One of the particulars mentioned by ElBaradei is Iran ongoing uranium enrichment, though the process has slowed down. In fact, ElBaradei has habitually left the discussion open and that is what both Iranian and foreign analysts expected.
The report will cause an awkward situation for the upcoming September nuclear talks between Iran and Five plus One. Iran believes that the entire decisions made against it are political. With post-election developments it may expect West’s decision to become further politicized. I can not think of a congenial atmosphere in next week’s negotiations, something which could bring harder days for the Iranian administration and prompt heavier sanctions. Plus, it does not seem that Iran’s constructive measures such as continuing cooperation with IAEA and allowing for extended inspection of nuclear facilities could affect Five plus One decisions.
Russia and China have lent Iran support during its challenge with West over the nuclear program. Meanwhile, their economic interests urge them to keep Iran as a major financial partner and try to perform a role as moderators between Iran and West. However, Iran’s current state and global pressures may force Russia and China to draw back and cease supporting Iran.