Iran and Russia’s Independent Steps to Safeguard Interests

There are reports that Iran and Russia have signed a 70 billion Euro economic cooperation agreement. Considering the volume of relations between Iran and Russia, is there the capacity of this amount of economic cooperation between the two countries?

Relations between Iran and Russia have expanded in the political arena during the past two years. Iran and Russia’s common outlook with regard to the issue of Syria has prepared the ground for political and economic cooperation which did not exist before. During the past two years, the visits made between the Iranian and Russian officials and regional consultations have increased. For example, regarding the situation in Iraq and following the emergence of Daesh in this country, cooperation between Tehran and Moscow grew. But the economic cooperation between the two countries has not been considerable due to the sanctions imposed against Iran and also the cooperation of the Russian companies with the western companies; although some Russian companies and entities have been sanctioned due to the crisis in Ukraine, the banks of this country still have transactions with western banks. If these companies decide to violate Iran’s sanctions, Russia will automatically be sanctioned as well. Therefore, under such conditions, pursuing economic cooperation will be difficult so long as the sanctions are not lifted. If the sanctions are lifted, then it would be easier for the Russian companies to interact with Iran. The assumption of some who think that Russia will break sanctions against itself by interacting with Iran is not correct and this capacity has not yet been created. Reaching this amount of economic cooperation needs time. The reason is that both parties should first be able to open LCs. At the same time, bank transactions must be established between the banks of the two countries because during the past years there have been no transactions due to the imposed sanctions. The volume of economic relations between Iran and Russia, which had been reduced to 2 billion dollars, cannot suddenly reach 100 billion dollars. First, the grounds for this volume of cooperation must be discovered and then operationalized. Although there is suitable capacity between the two countries, it will take between 5 to 10 years for this capacity to be activated. At the same time, sanctions must be lifted as well.

Within what framework will this level of economic cooperation between Iran and Russia be placed? Within the framework of a Russian win-lose game with the West or the game of Iran and the West over the nuclear issue?

Ant type of relation must be beneficial for both sides in order to be sustainable. If only one side is to benefit from the relation, then such relations would not be sustained. Therefore, those who are concerned about Russia deceiving Iran or believe that Russia imposes certain things on Iran are only skeptical about today’s realities. Iran and Russia are both independent countries and understand each other’s interests well and react at the proper time. For example, while Russia has good relations with Iran, it gave its positive votes to all seven resolutions which were proposed against Iran in the Security Council when it had interactions with the West. Why? Because it had a common outlook with them. Iran also acted similarly. On the issue of Ukraine, Iran did not support Russia in its differences with Ukraine. Iran considered its own interests because it intends to continue its good relations with both Ukraine and Russia and its relations with Ukraine must not be a victim to its relations with Russia. Hence, there should be mutual interests when they cooperate in the economic field. When we talk about mutual interests, it does not mean that they should be the same amount. There is no concern about the level of economic relations. Right now, the most important obstacle is the unilateral international sanctions against Iran. If these sanctions are lifted, then not only could Iran have better relations with Russia, but it could also establish good relations with other countries.

If the nuclear negotiations succeed and sanctions are lifted and relations between Russia and the West also improve, will this agreement still be valuable and provide Iran’s national interests?

Yes. Iran’s policy is not based on closeness with Russia due to a lack of good relations with the West. During the presidency of Mr. Khatami, Iran’s policy was to establish balanced relations with China, India, Russia, Japan and Korea, on one hand, and with the European Union and other countries, on the other, to normalize its relations. Therefore, the establishment of balanced relations with the East and the West, particularly in the economic area, is the policy of Mr. Rohani’s administration as well. We will not forget China and Russia if Iran’s relations with the West improve. Russia will neither make the conditions more difficult for us if Iran’s relations with the West grow, nor will it give concessions to Iran now that Moscow’s relations with the West are challenged. No special concession has been given to Iran by Russia due to its problems with the West. Iran and Russia’s moves are based on their interests. Countries do not have permanent friends or enemies; they rather have permanent interests and act upon them. Contradictory to the analysis of some Iranian experts, if sanctions are lifted, there will be no damage to the relations between Iran and Russia. At the same time, better grounds will be prepared for better relations with Russia and that would be better for Iran’s national interests. Furthermore, our hands will be more open for bargaining. When only China’s market is open to us and there is no other market, then the Chinese will have the upper hand compared to us.