Haftar, Libya’s New Ghaddafi

The coup d’état in Libya is a response to the conditions which have been created. The group which attempted a military attack in Benghazi and speedily expanded it to Tripoli had, intelligently and based on an accurate calculation, reached the conclusion that if they took such a measure, they would not be faced with serious protests inside the country and would be supported at the regional and international level. Their calculation is based on the idea that the people of Libya are dissatisfied with the government and the parliament due to their inability to establish security and form a new government and also the new constitution and demand a group or a force which could, at least, establish security in different cities and start the tasks which were stopped. Of course, this is the demand of the majority of the Libyans and this group has taken advantage of this incapability. This issue is also related to several internal and external elements.

At regional levels, both the US and Europe seek the revival of the increasing oil exports or, at least, something similar to the past. They are concerned about the halt of oil exports or its present reduction because that may impact the oil markets. That is why they demand the establishment of a structure or a system which could constantly take advantage of the oil. Of course, Libya has the capacity to host many investments and be the source of oil sales due to its suitable market. Right now, the western countries cannot ignore the Libyan shores in the Mediterranean Sea and its strategic situation. On the other hand, they feel threatened by the growth of Islamism in Libya because the cultural basis of this country is an Islamic one and if the people were left to themselves, they would move towards Islamism.

Therefore, the movement of the uprising group in Libya led by General Haftar has begun on the ground of the imagination of the support of the western countries and the Europeans and also the dissatisfaction of the people. It has been said that General Haftar has had meetings with the Americans and the heads of Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Kuwait and they have expressed their support because they would like to suppress the Qatari and Muslim Brotherhood Islamism. It has also been reported that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait have promised to help General Haftar in order to support the suppression of the branches of the Muslim Brotherhood. This is related to the point that the security of Egypt and the continuation of the coup d’état government depends on the Muslim Brotherhood groups not taking advantage of the situation in Libya. The only person who has openly supported the measures taken by this General has been Mr. al-Sisi and General Haftar has also named him in his remarks. Meanwhile, the neighboring countries including Algeria and Tunisia have cooperated in the establishment of forces in the Libyan borders so that the Islamic groups would not be able to escape from the hands of those groups which are supported by the West and Saudi Arabia and those groups that are active in the Libyan scene would be able to suppress the Islamists. It should be mentioned that the slogan of the suppression of the radical groups is an acceptable slogan. This has also been one of the intelligent measures taken by General Haftar. He has been able to use this slogan and introduce himself as a person who is suppressing these radical groups.

We are also witnessing that a collection of political, military and parliamentary sectors have reacted to this matter and joined General Haftar. In one operation, part of the Libyan Air Force was present and later a part of the ground forces and the navy also joined him. It can be said that the armed forces of Libya have no followers in Tripoli and the governmental sectors have also defended him.

A small part of the newly-established government, meaning the newly-appointed prime minister – Ahmed Maiteeq – and part of the parliament which is now closed, resisted against the attacks of General Haftar’s group and condemned his actions. On the other hand, General Haftar has shown that he is determined to take the central government, thus, he has named his group the national army and this is unprecedented in the history of Libya. During these two years, the operations which have been performed by different groups were only aimed at regional and ethnic objectives or defending against part of the region. But now General Haftar has named his army the ‘National Army’ and the operation ‘Dignity’ which is comprised of militant groups. He has not even denied the issue of taking control of the government. General Haftar has also called the government sectors illegal and has only approved one sector which is responsible for writing the new constitution.

At the same time, another group called the Libyan Shield has been created which acts as a shield against the National Army of General Haftar. Right now, these two groups have stood against each other. The Libyan Shield are the groups which do not have military collaboration with each other, and each one belongs to a region and their chances of success against General Haftar, who has been able to establish order among his forces, are slim. Nonetheless, these operations mean confrontation between these two groups; a group like Ansar al-Sharia and other fundamentalist groups who are inclined towards Qatar or are the members of the Muslim Brotherhood and have expressed their support of the official government of Libya and General Haftar’s group which seems to be more successful.

General Haftar is a person who has spent twenty years of his life in the US and has met with the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the western countries. In a statement issued at the end of last year, he declared the government and the parliament illegal and his operation is named a coup d’état. But since that statement was not welcomed, he entered the scene and took measures which many analysts in the region compared to the coup d’état of al-Sisi in Egypt. They say that the incident in Egypt has been repeated in Libya. General Haftar seeks to establish a secular government which would be supported by the western countries. Based on his slogans, the government would apparently be democratic, but its nature would be similar to that of Ghaddafi’s because Libya cannot tolerate the democracy which the Egyptians have experienced. The experience of democracy in Libya is weak and it could perhaps be said that considering the collection of the present conditions, General Haftar will be the future president of Libya.