Iran Needs to Make Strategic Decisions with regard to the US

The most important issue our foreign policy is faced with today is Obama's re-election as the US President and the management of future relations between Iran and the US. What should be paid attention to is how American analysts will deal with the Barack Obama phenomenon and the developments that happen in the US, for I believe that during Obama’s second term, the US will be confronted with huge developments.

When evaluating the results of the US election, we should not forget that the composition of the population in the US has greatly changed; it means that this composition is the main element and the most significant factor in Barack Obama's election victory. The results of this election show that the composition of the population has been very important in this decision. For example, in Florida, 150,000 Muslims participated in the presidential election and Muslims and religious and ethnic minorities have become important phenomena in the US election scene.

Therefore, if we follow an accurate approach with regard to these developments, we must consider Obama as a phenomenon after which other phenomena are emerging. It is this phenomenon which, contrary to the views of the decision-making elements of power in the US, led to the election of an African-American who will occupy the White House for the second time around. These decision-making elements of power were Caucasians who voted based on their ideology; Democrat or Republican Caucasians who in presidential campaigns talked about their own ideological views. Thus, despite very important and determining factors, Barack Obama reached power and it can be concluded that the US’ ideological Caucasians are no longer effective in the US presidential election; hence, they will not impact international relations and regional issues in the future. 

Another factor to be considered in the analysis of this development is the US’ economic situation; this means that the US economy is in a very bad situation, but this still did not prevent Obama from winning the election.

In fact, the question that is raised is why the Republicans put all their eggs in Mitt Romney’s basket and this candidate himself used all his financial resources in his competition with Obama but in the end was defeated. In other words, the costs the Republicans paid this time could not be compared with any of the previous presidential campaigns, yet it did not lead them to victory. What was the main reason behind Obama's victory over his rival? This is an important question which comes to the mind of any analyst and this whole process shows us that deep demographic changes are happening in the social structure of the US. 

Therefore, I believe that new factors are forming in the political decision-making scene of the US which differentiate today's US strategy from previous ones. That is why we see, for the first time, that Israel, during the US presidential campaign, did not support the ruling administration and stood by Mitt Romney and in the end tasted defeat. Traditionally, Democrats have been closer to the Israelis, but Netanyahu stood against Obama.

In my opinion, with his power today, Obama can create new developments in the US’ domestic and foreign issues. One of the threats against the US administration’s power is the influence of neo-cons in the power structure of this country, the results of which were two destructive wars. Right now, the same ideology threatens relations between the US and the world of Islam, and if Obama intends to remain true to his commitments, he must eliminate the neo-con ideology and radical forces that have risen from the ideologies of Bernard Lewis and Michael Ledeen and infiltrated the centers of power and decision-making of the US.

Hence, the basic question Iran is faced with today is whether or not US foreign policy within the next four years will be a continuation of Obama's foreign policy during his first term. In my opinion, and considering the visible signs, the foreign policy of Obama's second term can be defined differently from his first term. Today, Barack Obama's status is different from his first term, leading to the enhancement of his power; certainly, he is no longer concerned about his re-election, thus, he can easily make decisions. Therefore, it seems that Obama, with his demands and views, will be able to seriously impact the decision-making process in both domestic and foreign policies of the US. 

This question is historically important for Iran because in its confrontation with the US today, Iran has reached a point where it must choose between interaction and confrontation. This does not mean that the problems between Iran and the US will be easily solved in the near future; the history of relations between the two countries is filled with bitterness and difficulties and the problems between them cannot be forgotten. Despite these problems, if Iran intends to consider its national interests, it must, under the present circumstances, make strategic decisions to reach its goals in a shorter period of time. Therefore, Iran has reached a critical point which can determine the fate of the country's national interests and national life. I believe that the radical slogans which have been chanted by the present government are one of the major problems of our society today. Following the revolution, our country has experienced several presidents with different governments, but while the behavior of the former governments were revolutionary, they never chanted such radical and meaningless slogans, which not only have not borne any fruit for our people but their ramifications have targeted only the people. 

Of course, we should not be fooled by thinking that the US objective behind its support of certain groups is to help the process of democracy in the region. The Americans have always been faced with their own contradictions in the Middle East. Sometimes, in order to maintain and preserve their national interests, they have supported totalitarian regimes, and sometimes they speak of democracy and people's rights. For example, following the popular uprisings in the Arab countries, including Egypt and Tunisia, they removed their support from the rulers of these countries who for years were their allies in the region, and they had no choice but to stand alongside the people.

Therefore, in foreign policy issues, particularly with regard to our problems with the US, it must not be thought that if relations between Iran and the US are established today, all the problems of our country will be solved. It must be pointed out that if this relation is established, other serious problems will be created afterwards. Solving problems, demands, and misunderstandings, which have been formed during a long time, needs a long time as well. Thus, it should not be thought that the key to solving all of our problems today is related to the establishment of relations between Iran and the US; this incorrect view is very dangerous and threatens the independence of the Iranian nation.

The important point is that, in order to reduce foreign threats, we must take into account all of our domestic capacities and forces. Political ethics must be used to solve the problems of the people and the country, and the role of the people, the elite, and experts must be taken seriously in the decision-making process of the country.