How does a European Turkey influence Iran

 

Since the beginning of the nineteenth century in their foreign affairs, all countries are encountered with first, the international community structure and second, with a large number of different countries, both of which have direct impact on goals and policies of a country.

But among all the countries that play a role in the international scene, neighboring countries are most important. That’s because any development in these countries, whether positive or negative such as stability and instability, power or weakness and wealth and poverty have a direct influence on the condition of a country.

A glance on Iran-Turkey ties shows that both countries have monitored the developments of each other closely. The rise of the Ottoman Empire was approximately concurrent with rise of Safavid dynasty in Iran and power equilibrium, war and peace between these two countries were part and parcel of their policy-making in international scene and their relationships with other powers of that time.

With the beginning of the nineteenth century when both countries became acquainted with Western civilization and culture and decided to choose West as a model for development, they witnessed each other’s mutual impact in social and cultural issues and in westernization race.

Issue of the Gulkhana decree by the Ottoman Sultan that could be a beginning for formulation of a constitution and a preliminary condition for political development in the Ottoman Empire was concurrent with Amir Kabir and Mirza Hussein Khan Sepahsalar’s reforms in Iran.

Since then both countries’ societies are raising a pro-West elite class that triggered the constitutional revolution of Iran and Young Turks Revolution in the Ottoman Empire. Failure of democratic options in both Iran and Ottoman Empire moved both countries towards authoritative development and modernization which are best exemplified in the governments of Reza Shah and Ataturk.

In a republic there is always a chance for gradual development but a monarchy, if not constitutional, will leave revolution as the only possible option for reform. At the end of the 20^th century by different paths both countries have attained a guided democracy which is valuable at any scale considering all those existing dictatorships of the third world.

The different routes that Iran and Turkey selected have profoundly influenced their policies. It’s a long time that Turkey is getting prepared to enter the global era but Islamic Iran is resisting against it.

The reason underlying this difference is the step-by-step westernization process in Turkey and Iran’s reaction to this phenomenon that led to the Islamic Revolution on 1979.

Turkey doesn’t doubt westernization at any rate and even asks for joining the EU. There is entire unity between the Turkish nation and state on this issue and even both secular and religious parties agree on this and this iron will is going to turn Turkey into a European country which is also West’s gate toward the Islamic East.

Although we believe that a Muslim Turkey will not enter the Christian Europe (not only the founders of EU, Jean Monet and Schumann were religious Christians but all those who have discussed Europe’s unity –Victor Hugo, Abe de Sainte Pierre, Tsar Alexander etc.- have stressed merely on Christianity) but it will be its high-level partner. Even all the European countries or figures that oppose Turkey’s membership within EU agree upon this fact that Turkey is a trustworthy and high-level partner and a good friend of West.

Suppose that Turkey joins EU in a few years; then what would be its impact on Iran? As we talked about the history of Iran-Turkey ties and their watchfulness towards each other in past, we should consider that the two countries’ mutual impact in the contemporary era and future will not wane.

Firstly, Turkey’s membership will bring with itself a remarkable economic growth for the country that will be envied by most of its neighbors. Just as Spain that witnessed a noticeable economic boom 10 years after it joined EU, Turkey will experience heavy investments by other European Union members.

This leap accompanied by ease of law, consolidation of democracy through participation and valid elections, cooperation between Turkish and European parties (political development in general), scientific interactions and acceptance of Turk students in high-profile universities of Europe, opening branches of European universities in Turkey will bring great scientific and cultural progress for this country which will not be experienced by any of the neighboring countries.

The Europeans describe EU as a peace-bringing machine and claim that there is peace between the 30 members of this union. Therefore Turkey will establish friendly ties with 30 countries as soon as it joins the union.

In its foreign affairs, since Turkey can’t decide singly anymore and its relationships with many of the neighboring and Middle Eastern countries will be channeled through EU’s policies, those countries of the region that do not have friendly relationships with European countries will not be welcomed by Turkey and even their economic ties with Turkey may face serious problems.

If Iran’s current policies continue, its ties with a European Turkey will face severe damages more than any other Middle Eastern country since Turkey is Iran’s entrance gate to Europe and any strain in these ties will cause heavy loss.

Similarly if Iran-West ties improve, Turkey’s joining EU will be most beneficial for Iran. Not only Iran’s neighborhood with Europe will provide it a proximate route but it will positively affect Iran’s relationships with other neighboring powers such as Russia.

Next point is Iran’s regional status and its latent rivalry with Turkey. If Turkey becomes a member of EU it will outperform Iran. Not only European products will get in hands of our neighbors through Turkey, but also the political strength of Turkey as a NATO and EU member will attract countries such as Azerbaijan.

Another challenge Turkey’s membership will cause for Iran is its scientific-cultural development that will fuel civil demands of Iranians, especially youth. Political challenges of Iran will aggravate as that of Turkey reduce.

The Kurd of Turkey will enjoy more freedom and since then they’ll have privileges in the European Union as a minority and they won’t need a central government similar to Spain’s Catalans. Meanwhile, not only Iranian Kurds will become more dissatisfied but Iranian Azeri Turks will also seek becoming European by looking at Turkey as a model.

In general, Turkey’s progressive democracy will impact political demands of the Iranian society and Reinforced secularism of Turkey will challenge Iran’s political-theocratic regime and will further provoke the society.