Red Book Revision: What Is Behind Turkey’s Gesture?
Iran, Greece, Russia and Syria. Four countries with a common feature: they are now out of Turkey’s national security document, or the so-called Red Book. And how do they differ from Israel? The Jewish state is actually in the document.
On one level, the new changes in the document can be explained with regard to the dynamics of Turkey’s domestic politics: in a subtle fashion, the civil branch of power has now succeeded in marginalizing the once-powerful military.
Tel Aviv has infuriated Ankara over Gaza, especially over the violent attack on the Freedom Flotilla in May. The Turks have come to the conclusion that relations with Israel may not be worth the price. Not only does Israel not economically benefit the Turks, but also it can impede their relations with the Muslim World.
The Turks have also shown less interest in joining the European Union in the recent years, with the knowledge that the EU is reluctant to embrace it as a full member. Ankara’s tilt toward the East is perhaps a consequence of this perception. Turkey is meanwhile aware of the fact that Western countries refrain from supporting it over security vicissitudes, such as its battle against rebel Kurds in the south-eastern region of the country. Iran is a more trustworthy partner in quelling the Kurdish separatists’ revolt—something Ankara recognizes.
The Turks have now adopted a more realistic attitude toward their security concerns and the result has been removing Iran, Syria, and even Russia from the list of their enemies. Ankara knows that in case of a security crisis, it needs the full support of its neighbors, especially Iran, to preserve its territorial integrity (and Turkey is host to a remarkable Shi’a minority –the Alevi sect, to be precise- which it has kept from statistical surveys, while unofficial data estimates their population to be as much as 10 million).
All these factors impel Turkey to dismantle its Cold War mentality and to begin playing a more realistic and wiser game. In fact, Ankara has now decided to sit on the fence, a revived legacy of the Ottoman era.
Iran’s nuclear program is not a security threat to Turkey in the short term, though in the long run it has the potential to become a serious concern. Drawing on a theory of Security Puzzle, the security statuses of countries have reverse relations. Thus, reinforced security for Iran is equal to less security for its neighbors. Turkey’s opposition to Iran’s nuclear program in further advanced stages can be predicted, even now.
Another important point of the revised Red Book is the removal of the names of some Islamic groups from the list of terrorist organizations. Is Turkey really embarking on an era of political liberalization? Perhaps. But this move appears to be more of a political gesture to encourage these radical groups to adopt more moderate attitudes toward Islam, and more importantly, to remove Turkey from their list of potential targets. In this way, Turkey will also no longer be a traitor to other Muslim countries.
The economy may also help to explain revisions in the Red Book. The Turks are dependent on Russia and Iran for their energy demands. Moreover, they are the hosts of the most strategic pipelines that pass through their territory to enter Europe. Considering the importance of keeping these pipelines safe, Turkey clearly prefers to establish closer ties with its neighbors. This might even be an opportunity for Turkey to manipulate political-economic affairs in a broad region.
Makan Eidipour is a Turkey affairs analyst.