Who Will Replace Hashemi Rafsanjani in the Expediency Council?

(Picture: Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Hassan Rouhani, Sadegh Larijani, and Akbar Nategh Noori during an Expediency Council meeting.)

Quite few would question the magnitude of the void left in Iran’s power structure with death of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. As the shock over his departure dies down, scores of politicians, commentators, and analysts have questioned if there would be an equal match to fill what is perhaps Rafsanjani’s most minor of all his major posts, as the head of the country’s Expediency Discernment Council, a decision-making forum, whose members are directly chosen by the Supreme Leader to arbitrate between the parliament and the Guardian Council. The council also acts as a major consultative body whose recommendations on long-term strategies are often only slightly revised by the Supreme Leader and notified as guidelines.

The first chairman, now Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei held office when he was appointed by founder of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini as the head of the Council. When the Assembly of Experts chose the former as the latter’s successor, Rafsanjani’s appointment as the chairman seemed axiomatic. The fact that Hashemi Rafsanjani was also Iran’s president at the time of appointment has apparently led to a misconception that presidency could help one receive chairmanship of the Council too. A portfolio proud of presidency may be a good start but it definitely takes more to preside a council that consists of the country’s highest-ranking officials.

The newly deceased Hashemi Rafsanjani was retained chairman ever since the end of the Iraqi-imposed war. Even though the 82-year-old Ayatollah’s death was unexpected for almost everyone, many already saw this as his last five-year term in the council (which will end in two months), for one reason, due to his increasing differences with Ayatollah Khamenei. Moreover, Hashemi Rafsanjani had already been sidelined over his subtle support for post-election protests in 2009, dubbed ‘sedition’ in official rhetoric. Chastised by hardliners for his approving silence during the days of sedition, he was even barred from running in the 2013 presidential race over the pretext of old age.

In spite of all the speculations before and after Hashemi’s death, no proposed sub seems to be able to win a nation-wide consensus, as did Hashemi. However, the inevitable is now fact and alternatives are already being discussed. Here are a few of the likeliest alternatives:

Akbar Nategh Noori

Probably the most credible alternative would be former parliament speaker and presidential candidate Nategh Noori, a veteran revolutionary and a father figure for many of the elites in the establishment. Of his qualification, the moderate website Fararu writes Nategh Noori has been so ‘immersed’ in his dedication to the establishment’s expediency that he has stood away from all political tugs of war, trying to warn of the consequences as a fence-sitter. As director of the Supreme Leader office’s audit bureau, Nategh Noori has attended the Expediency Council for years and his parliamentary background may come handy, as Majles is one of the main institutions constantly dealing with the Council. Calling him a disciple of Hashemi Rafsanjani that could best replace his guru, the Reformist Bahar daily suggests the Sheikh of Noor (a city in the northern province of Mazandaran) as the most competent alternative to Hashemi Rafsanjani, too.

Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi

Hashemi Shahroudi, ex-Judiciary Chief, boasts ijtihad, an Islamic term that denotes the ability to exert reasoning to solve religious issues, and is an elected member of the Assembly of Experts. The Iraqi-born ayatollah has also been a member of the Guardian Council and is now serving as the director of a board appointed by the Supreme Leader to settle disputes and regulate relations among the three branches of the government.

Hassan Rouhani

As Fararu has noted, apart from presidency, other things Hassan Rouhani has in common with the previous chiefs in the Council is his ijtihad and first-hand experience in the Assembly of Experts and the parliament. These are expected to boost his capability to mediate when differences occur, as he is aware of the mechanisms in the two elective institutions.

Hassan Khomeini

The grandson of Iran’s first Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini is hailed by many pro-reform and moderate voices as the embodiment of his grandfather’s charismatic character and revolutionary values. However, the conservatives have long accused him of deviating from the path of revolution. These allegations peaked when the Guardian Council blocked his candidacy for the Assembly of Experts election last year. Interestingly, the late Hashemi Rafsanjani turned out to be his most vocal supporter after disqualification. Hassan Khomeini has never been involved in politics, at least in its official sense. At best, he may serve as a memento of Hashemi’s middle ground policies, just in the same way he has been seen as a relic of the Ayatollah Khomeini’s era. No official prospects are seen for him in the immediate future.

Sadegh Amoli Larijani

Chief Magistrate Sadegh Amoli Larijani is junior to all other candidates for the post. His status as the Judiciary Chief is evidence that the Supreme Leader has confidence in him. While his brother Ali Larijani currently serves as Parliament Speaker, the administration in office has been involved in a number of public showdowns with the Chief Magistrate.

Ebrahim Raeisi

Hojatoleslam Ebrahim Raeisi who has been picked rather recently by the Supreme Leader as the official custodian of the holy shrine of Imam Reza is at the heart of speculations that find him a suitable pick for every major role in the country.

Other individuals like former foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati, former speaker of the parliament Gholamali Haddad Adel, Friday Prayers leader Ahmad Khatami, former Deputy Speaker Mohammad-Hassan Aboutorabi Fard, conservative cleric Gholamreza Mesbahi-Moghadam, and IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei have also been mooted here and there.

The weigh-in among different political factions will end in the coming weeks with the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s decree, and as the Expediency Council approaches the end of its five-year term.

Correction: An earlier version of the article incorrectly identified Hassan Khomeini as son-in-law of Ayatollah Khomeini. He is the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini.