A Tense Lebanon Awaits Outcome of Regional Diplomacy
Lebanon is witnessing a flurry of regional diplomatic activity amid political tensions triggered by information that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon is planning to indict members of Hezbollah in the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
The Lebanese As Safir daily reported on July 28 that a Lebanese-Saudi-Syrian summit will take place on Friday in Lebanon between Saudi King Abdullah, Syrian President Bashar Assad and Lebanese President Michel Suleiman. The summit in Lebanon will follow a meeting in Syria between Abdullah and Assad. Qatari Prince Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani is also expected in Lebanon on Friday. In another sign of regional efforts to contain the situation in Lebanon As Safir also reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will visit Beirut before the start of the month of Ramadan.
The debate over the STL escalated after Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah disclosed at a press conference on July 22 that Prime Minister Saad Hariri informed him the STL is planning to indict “undisciplined” members of the Lebanese party. He has accused the tribunal of being biased and of lacking credibility since it has never looked into “the possibility that Israel is implicated” in Hariri’s assassination and described it as part of an “Israeli project”. The UN tribunal’s president, Antonio Cassese, has said he expects an indictment in the case between September and December.
Regional states are and will be playing a major role in calming tensions and observers are anticipating the impact that the high-level meetings will have on the direction the STL crisis in Lebanon will take.
Underlining such regional influence on the situation in Lebanon, As Safir newspaper publisher and editor-in-chief Talal Salman observed, in his July 26 editorial entitled “On the road…Awaiting help from Damascus”, that “the Lebanese were relieved to hear that the Saudi king will visit Damascus and then Beirut assuming that the meeting between King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz and President Bashar Assad will cover at length the extremely worrisome situation in Lebanon and it will – certainly – enable them to find a formula to end the tension…” (http://www.assafir.com/Article.aspx?EditionId=1603&ChannelId=37451&ArticleId=2789&Author=طلال%20سلمان)
The pan-Arab daily Al Hayat noted that the political tension in Lebanon over the tribunal has entered a “phase of calm” in anticipation of regional talks this week. It reported that “great efforts” by more than one regional country to “clam the domestic political rhetoric” especially that regional discussions require an atmosphere of “patience and containment of tensions”.
Saudi political writer Khalid al-Dakhil told Reuters on July 27 that the “king appears keen to deal with concerns that recent tensions could escalate if the (U.N.) court takes some decisive action in the Hariri murder case”. He said that the king’s visit to Lebanon “also aims at ascertaining the regional understandings Syria has with Saudis, Turks, the French …. to keep Lebanon stable and stay away from Lebanese internal political wrangling”.
Another point that Nasrallah has underlined is that fact that that for four years the tribunal has tried to pin the assassination on senior Syrian officials without offering tangible evidence to Syria’s involvement. Now however, the STL is no longer focused on Syria’s alleged role but has instead turned its attention to Hezbollah. Such a change can also be seen in light of the West’s move toward opening dialogue with Damascus and Washington’s attempt to depart from the Bush administration’s policy to isolate Syria and adopt a policy of engagement. Such a change naturally reflected on the political arena in Lebanon and saw a realignment of political alliances. Hariri, once the leader of the anti-Syrian coalition March 14, has started to ease tensions with Syria and to improve relations. In light of the US change of approach toward Syria, the rapprochement between Hariri and Syria on the one hand and Damascus and Riyadh on the other raise questions on the impact of recent developments on Hezbollah itself and how the party will handle the situation once the indictment is issued.
Al Hayat columnist Daoud Al-Sherian in a July 27 column said that Lebanon was about to embark on a new “Syrian phase but with different tools, that do not include Hezbollah or Hezbollah’s weapons”. He argued that Nasrallah’s speech shows that the part was living a state of “worry” that regional understandings could “come at its expense and position on the Lebanese stage”.
Other observers argued that the positions of Syria and Iran regarding the indictment will play a decisive role on Hezbollah’s status in Lebanon and on the domestic situation in general.
Columnist Emile Khoury of the rightist Lebanese daily An Nahar, wrote a column on June 27 entitled “Syria or Iran’s position will determine the direction of the indictment crisis … Will a committee of advocates be formed to review the content of the decision?” He argued that the “role during phase preceding and following the indictment could be for Syria or Syria and Iran together in response to Arab and international efforts. If there was an agreement to resolve the situation in Lebanon a picture will emerge and if there was no agreement another picture will emerge that will lead to a new realignment of the Lebanese … Israel will be observing and anticipating as a prelude to take its decision”. He concluded however that the widespread opinion is to “reach a settlement to the situation resulting from the indictment by not giving Israel the chance, through strife, to carry out its targets and plans not just in Lebanon but in the region”. (http://www.annahar.com/content.php?priority=5&table=makalat&type=makalat&day=Tue)
Commentators have also warned against civil strife saying that Israel will use it to its benefit. Underlining this threat, Salman warned that strife “has investors on the inside and the outside who are powerful, influential and represent the interests of influential states”. These warnings come amid escalating Israeli war rhetoric and blatant violations of Lebanese sovereignty and of Security Council Resolution 1701.
Al Akhbar newspaper chairman Ibrahim al-Amin described in a July 28 column the situation as an “open war”. He urged Hezbollah to launch a wide campaign that includes “all groups of the Lebanese people” and different political forces and “to address Arab and international sides, especially the public opinion, in the context of clarifying the truth of what is happening”. He said Hezbollah should “prepare the stage for any harsh step, to which Lebanon appears to be heading” unless the Saudi king moved to put an end to the “conspiracy against the resistance”. (http://www.al-akhbar.com/ar/node/199873)
What is certain at this point is that Hezbollah is facing a critical situation that must also be seen in its regional and international contexts.
The main project being orchestrated by the West is an attempt at breaking the resistance which is comprised of Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas. Thus, the security council’s new resolution against Iran and the extra sanctions of the United States of America and the European Union against Iran, the continuation of the siege of Gaza, the strengthening of Abbas in the West bank by the West and Russia, Russia’s greater level of cooperation with America against Iran, and suddenly and unexpectedly accusing Hezbollah as being involved in the assassination of Hariri, are all interconnected and reveal new multi-layered scenario conducted by the west against the anti-Zionist resistance.
America and Saudi Arabia are trying to remove Syria from the resistance, disarm Hezbollah in favor of Israel, remove the question of Palestinian refugees from the future Palestinian negotiations by giving them citizenship rights in different Arab counties, place Gaza under the control of Egypt and either place the West Bank under Palestinian control or place it as part of Jordan.
However, these plans of the West will be defeated, for Syria will not depart the axis of resistance until the Golan is returned to it, and returning the Golan is impossible for Israel; the sanctions will not result in a behavioral change in Iran and will not weaken Iran, just as 30 years of sanctions imposed on Iran until now have been ineffective and under them Iran has grown stronger; Hezbollah cannot be disarmed, neither through political pressure nor war, just as it was proved in the June 2006 war. Disarming Hezbollah is the red line of both the leadership of Hezbollah, Iran and Syria. Furthermore Gaza is also not occupiable and will not surrender just as years of siege and the 33 day war proved.
What is important to understand is that the West by reusing these old defeated methodologies greatly damage the possibility of peace in the region, and the region will once more return to chaos, without the west becoming the victor, rather, it will result in yet another defeat for the west, and will result in the awakening and uniting of the people of the region. “Then they schemed but Allah also schemed, and Allah is the best of Schemers.” (Holy Qur’an: 3:54)