West Stops Only When Sure
Punitive measures will continue until West becomes sure that Iran will not achieve nuclear weapons. Commentary by Mohammad Hosein Malaek, Iran’s former ambassador to China and Russia and European affairs analyst
EU-Israel relations have had their share of ups and downs. Human rights issues, treatment of Palestinians and now the construction of Jewish settlements in the Occupied Territories are the major causes of contention between the European Union and Israel.
The nature of EU-Israel relations is different from US- harmonic Israel ties. While the Iranian foreign minister is visiting Turkey, Europeans are still calling Tehran to give an answer to Five plus One proposal. They also want Iran to give a response outside the general framework it always considers, one which includes regional issues such as the future of Palestine. Five plus One wants Tehran to focus exactly on the nuclear program, issues such as the centrifuges, their product etc.
The quality of dealing with Iran will definitely be on the agenda of Five plus One September meeting. The meeting which will be attended by Iran’s representative provides a situation for West to know more what the nature of current political state in Iran is and what Tehran’s arguments in defending its nuclear program are.
Investigations and negotiations carried out by 5+1 representatives have been briefed and handed to the group’s foreign ministers. With such a report taking a unanimous stance on Iran’s nuclear case will become easier. At the end of Five plus One conference, the group will find out if Iran is ready to continue the negotiations, if the pressures will change Iran’s behavior or if they can help continue the talks etc.
Iran’s consent for visiting the Arak heavy water production plant a few weeks before the September conference shows that Tehran is taking the upcoming meeting seriously and has apparently become more flexible. West will consider this as a positive point though Tehran emphasizes that it has always been a committed IAEA member and has never stalled the inspections.
Iran’s latest measure shows its readiness to allow IAEA stretch its inspections. That will definitely help the progress of negotiations. On the other hand, the appointment of Mr. Salehi as head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization has some advantages. He knows the ropes in diplomatic bargain and can use his international links to advance Iran’s nuclear interests.
It would be much better if the whole nuclear case was assigned to the Atomic Energy Organization. But with National Security Council remaining in charge of the case and the Atomic Energy Organization still a subordinate, facing further problems is predictable.
Currently, the only actual threat against Iran is Israel’s military strike. But how prone is Iran to military threats? Apparently not so much. Military attack is the ’stick’ always used against Iran but it is so unlikely to be realized.
Sanctions are a more serious story. As a result of the economic sanctions the real value of one U.S. dollar in Iran is around 25-40 cents. That means that the sanctions have had a %60 effect. They have caused Iran many problems. West is aware of the impact of sanctions on Iran’s economic and political structure and within their long-term view, punitive measures will end only when they have become sure that Iran will not achieve nuclear weapons.
The nature of EU-Israel relations is different from US- harmonic Israel ties. While the Iranian foreign minister is visiting Turkey, Europeans are still calling Tehran to give an answer to Five plus One proposal. They also want Iran to give a response outside the general framework it always considers, one which includes regional issues such as the future of Palestine. Five plus One wants Tehran to focus exactly on the nuclear program, issues such as the centrifuges, their product etc.
The quality of dealing with Iran will definitely be on the agenda of Five plus One September meeting. The meeting which will be attended by Iran’s representative provides a situation for West to know more what the nature of current political state in Iran is and what Tehran’s arguments in defending its nuclear program are.
Investigations and negotiations carried out by 5+1 representatives have been briefed and handed to the group’s foreign ministers. With such a report taking a unanimous stance on Iran’s nuclear case will become easier. At the end of Five plus One conference, the group will find out if Iran is ready to continue the negotiations, if the pressures will change Iran’s behavior or if they can help continue the talks etc.
Iran’s consent for visiting the Arak heavy water production plant a few weeks before the September conference shows that Tehran is taking the upcoming meeting seriously and has apparently become more flexible. West will consider this as a positive point though Tehran emphasizes that it has always been a committed IAEA member and has never stalled the inspections.
Iran’s latest measure shows its readiness to allow IAEA stretch its inspections. That will definitely help the progress of negotiations. On the other hand, the appointment of Mr. Salehi as head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization has some advantages. He knows the ropes in diplomatic bargain and can use his international links to advance Iran’s nuclear interests.
It would be much better if the whole nuclear case was assigned to the Atomic Energy Organization. But with National Security Council remaining in charge of the case and the Atomic Energy Organization still a subordinate, facing further problems is predictable.
Currently, the only actual threat against Iran is Israel’s military strike. But how prone is Iran to military threats? Apparently not so much. Military attack is the ’stick’ always used against Iran but it is so unlikely to be realized.
Sanctions are a more serious story. As a result of the economic sanctions the real value of one U.S. dollar in Iran is around 25-40 cents. That means that the sanctions have had a %60 effect. They have caused Iran many problems. West is aware of the impact of sanctions on Iran’s economic and political structure and within their long-term view, punitive measures will end only when they have become sure that Iran will not achieve nuclear weapons.