Will the United States Take the Highway?
Commentary by Davoud Hermidas Bavand on post-election protests in Iran and Barack Obama’s situation regarding unconditional talks
The current atmosphere prevailing in the United States decision-making centers has put Obama in a predicament. Many have been pressing Obama to set a deadline for Iran and take drastic measures against this country. But Obama seems unwilling to abandon diplomacy vis-à-vis Iran. Davoud Hermidas Bavand, Iran-U.S. affairs analyst has commented on the issue:
Since stepping into White House, Barack Obama intended to engage in unconditional negotiations with Iran to solve the problems within two countries, especially the dispute over Iran’s nuclear technology. He started with congratulating Iranians for the New Year with a soothing tone. However, Iran’s response was not corresponding. Iranian leaders emphasized that they had received no proposal for talks from the United States and that Iran will be not lured.
With the post-election developments in Iran, a new atmosphere developed. The U.S. Congress, public opinion of Americans and Iranians (either expatriates or those inside Iran) put Obama in an uneasy state. The Congress has even passed an act on imposing sanctions against Iran in gasoline export. It will be enacted if Iran fails to meet the September deadline to start nuclear negotiations with West. Barack Obama is suddenly facing pressure from various directions. That is the reason he was forced to relinquish the demand for bilateral talks and return to Five Plus One multilateral negotiations.
With the situation developed by recent protests and Iran’s reaction to foreign countries’ remarks, Iran-U.S. talks will probably be held in an uneasy atmosphere. Meanwhile, Iran’s response bears import. We should wait and see if Iran gives a favorable answer to West or it will just discuss general issues such as international security and peace, fighting terrorism etc. If the latter occurs, a tougher sanction by UNSC will be awaiting Iran. In addition, the United States will continue its unilateral measures. The Iranian citizens will naturally suffer the hardship of measures such as the Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act. To toughen sanctions, American officials should also consider Russia and China. It is not clear yet if these two powers will follow the United States and China or they still prefer a weak resolution against Iran.
For the U.S. it will be easier to embark on unilateral measures which may witness Europe’s cooperation. UN Security Council’s resolutions will target nuclear technology and defense system, and related handlers and organizations. So far, surveillance of these items has been carried out in ports and airports and no inspection in free waters was considered. That may appear in the next resolution. Nevertheless, to be enacted all these punitive measures need the cooperation of five permanent UNSC members. For the United States and Europe, it will be easier to go after unilateral sanctions which do not need the consent of other countries.
Since stepping into White House, Barack Obama intended to engage in unconditional negotiations with Iran to solve the problems within two countries, especially the dispute over Iran’s nuclear technology. He started with congratulating Iranians for the New Year with a soothing tone. However, Iran’s response was not corresponding. Iranian leaders emphasized that they had received no proposal for talks from the United States and that Iran will be not lured.
With the post-election developments in Iran, a new atmosphere developed. The U.S. Congress, public opinion of Americans and Iranians (either expatriates or those inside Iran) put Obama in an uneasy state. The Congress has even passed an act on imposing sanctions against Iran in gasoline export. It will be enacted if Iran fails to meet the September deadline to start nuclear negotiations with West. Barack Obama is suddenly facing pressure from various directions. That is the reason he was forced to relinquish the demand for bilateral talks and return to Five Plus One multilateral negotiations.
With the situation developed by recent protests and Iran’s reaction to foreign countries’ remarks, Iran-U.S. talks will probably be held in an uneasy atmosphere. Meanwhile, Iran’s response bears import. We should wait and see if Iran gives a favorable answer to West or it will just discuss general issues such as international security and peace, fighting terrorism etc. If the latter occurs, a tougher sanction by UNSC will be awaiting Iran. In addition, the United States will continue its unilateral measures. The Iranian citizens will naturally suffer the hardship of measures such as the Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act. To toughen sanctions, American officials should also consider Russia and China. It is not clear yet if these two powers will follow the United States and China or they still prefer a weak resolution against Iran.
For the U.S. it will be easier to embark on unilateral measures which may witness Europe’s cooperation. UN Security Council’s resolutions will target nuclear technology and defense system, and related handlers and organizations. So far, surveillance of these items has been carried out in ports and airports and no inspection in free waters was considered. That may appear in the next resolution. Nevertheless, to be enacted all these punitive measures need the cooperation of five permanent UNSC members. For the United States and Europe, it will be easier to go after unilateral sanctions which do not need the consent of other countries.