The three crucial elections in the US, Israel and Iran

Three crucial elections are going to be held in the US, Israel and Iran. In Iran and the US, two presidents are to be elected and in Israel, a new prime minister. These three elections can give a new face to the political stage of the Middle East and its actors.

The new US president is elected on Tuesday, the Israeli prime minister in the next few months, and the new Iranian president at the end of the spring. The importance of these three elections is not only in their domestic ramifications, but also in their influence on the political and security situation of the Middle East.

If John Mc Cain is the winner of the US presidential election, the changes in Bush-like policies are not much plausible. But in case of Barack Obama being elected as the new US president and the democrats gaining a majority in the US senate, the world will be witnessing a new US government which is less willing to exploit military strategies of George Bush on foreign policy. In such a way, the US will be heading towards a more political, legal and economic diplomacy regarding its friends and foes. (The only exception in this regard may be the new military strategies on Afghanistan and Iraq). According to this policy, Iran will be a less plausible target of military raids in US policies.

Right now, it seems that the dominant discourses in the US are the necessity of managing domestic challenges, expanding the interactions with other countries, changing the neo-conservative policies, and putting an end to consequent wars.

But in Israel, there is no dominant discourse. The distribution of the Knesset’s 120 seats between several minor and major parties is the best indication of this dispersion. Even the most hopeful parties do not know whether they would be able to secure more than 20 or 30 seats in the Knesset, and this means the establishment of a new cabinet in which both peace supporters and war mongers would be present. The extremist parties of Shas and Likud would not be able to form a cabinet without the help of other parties and this is the same story for parties like Kadima and Labor. Even if there is a political reconciliation to form the cabinet, there would be no hope of putting an end to the disagreements. Such a cabinet would be so incongruous that it will neither let go of war nor continue with the negotiations. This means just a continuation of the present futile situation. Only a strong cabinet can help Israel make strategic decisions and this seems so far away in the time being.

But the third crucial election is the Iranian presidential election. The Iranian president’s authority is not that vast to give him the final word on policies towards the US and the Middle East process. But during their periods of holding power, the two main political groups in Iran have sent two very different signals to the world. Based on his political inclinations, the new Iranian president would have great influence on domestic, regional and international policies of the government.

Anyhow, the important point in such situation is not the individual result of each of these three elections. It is the total conclusion of the three of them and especially the results of the US and Iranian elections which matter most. In such a way, the challenges facing Iran and the US should be managed and controlled but the prerequisite to do that is the presence of a strong will in the two countries to solve old problems, and this is much dependent on the presidential election results on both countries.