Here comes the US election

The US general election (including the presidential election and election of some governors and members of the congress) will be held on Tuesday. This election has been called a historical election from many aspects. The total spending on this election is a record on the history of US election campaigns. According to CRP Institute, the spending on presidential election campaigns in Washington has reached the legendary number of 5/3 billion dollars which shows a 27 percent increase in spending compared to the last presidential election held. According to the polls, the African-American Black senator of the democrat party-Barack Obama- has a high chance of victory in winning the White House.

Even Sen. John Mc Cain-the republicans’ candidate- has admitted Obama’s being 6 percents ahead on the polls. According to Mc Cain, the media has assumed republicans’ defeat on the presidential election but they have forgotten that the recent economic problems have helped increase Obama’s popularity.

Obama has proposed a plan of tax cuts for those creating job opportunities. He has also talked about a plan to stop the confiscation of houses whose owner has not paid his bank loans. The two plans have helped Obama improve its status in polls.

According to the polls, two third of the US voters believe that Obama is a better option to handle the US economic crisis than Mc Cain. Anyhow, it seems that the democrats’ candidate is now clearly ahead of its republican rival.

Obama has a very good position in states traditionally backing the democrats. In such states like California, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan, Washington, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland, Massachusetts, and New Jersey he has much more support than the other democrat candidates (John Kerry in 2004 and Al Gore in 1992 & 1996) had in the past.

But the republicans and their candidate - John Mc Cain-have a very different situation. In states traditionally supporting the republicans, like Texas, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, North Carolina, Louisiana, Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, and Oklahoma he does not have the same chance as the previous republican candidates(George Bush junior in 2000 and 2004 and George Bush senior in 1992 had mush more support in traditionally republican states).

If there are no last minute surprises, the democrats will replace republicans in the White House. But it should not be forgotten that the last minute surprises really count on US elections. In 2004, it was the threatening Osama Bin Laden’s video which led to John Kerry’s defeat against George Bush. On 2000, Al Gore who was the front runner in polls was unable to win the White House due to the decree of electoral council. At the same time, there are undecided voters which constitute 14 percent of the voters and will be influential in election results.

If the republicans and their candidate be defeated in US presidential election, one would assume that after a period of war and violence especially on Iraq and Afghanistan, a new era would begin. This optimistic view has been evident in different polls done in European, African, Asian and Latin American countries and in all of them, people are looking forward for Obama’s election. It seems that the anti-Bush policies of the democrats’ candidate and his slogans-which are in contrast to Bush’s- have caused such global enthusiasm towards Obama.  

 But even if Mc Cain and the republicans be defeated in presidential election, there would still be many questions and expectations from Obama. How much would the democrats be distancing themselves from Bush policies? What would be their approach towards Iraq and Afghanistan? What would be the US diplomacy towards North Korea, Iran, Syria and Venezuela? How would the US interact with Europe, Russia or the Palestine? Answering these questions require waiting for the results of the US election rather than waiting for Obama’s policies at work. The republicans will not be easily leaving the White House and kissing the power goodbye. They have created this one polar system of power and they want to keep it.