Who Will Become the Next Speaker of Iran’s Parliament?

(Ali Larijani and Mohammad-Reza Aref attending the first unofficial meeting of the Tenth Parliament representative-elects.)

A critical choice indeed. It can be seen as an endgame between the Reformists and the Principlists where each side’s victory could have quite meaningful implications for a sandwiched President Rouhani and his administration. The hard-fought battle between the two camps have entered a very new phase of proselytization. A little history might establish it as the sides’ inexorable fate just before the final curtain.

Reformism in Iran was cornered rather forcibly for what has been called "radical moves" of its adherents, especially after the disputed 2009 presidential race. The Reformists’ marginalization from corridors of power in turn led to the formation of radical Principlist groups including most notoriously a faction called Paydari (Resistance). When radicals established their power under Ahmadinejad’s administration, the remaining Reformists put a step back from their reform agenda and found allies in moderate conservatives, including former adversaries Hashemi Rafsanjani, Nategh Nouri, and Ali Larijani to save the country from what they presumed to be an abyss of backwardedness and corruption.

When the Guardian Council barred former president Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani from running for president in the 2013 election, supposedly based on age limits, few believed his plan to go down the road, hand in hand with another former president, of playing foil for the Principlist-turned-moderate Hassan Rouhani would work. Rouhani’s hairbreadth victory was an alarming indicator for the Principlist camp, of the Reformists’ social base when it comes to ballots. Alarmed by this reality, Principlists spared no effort in blocking the new moderate administration’s attempts to mend the country’s economy, either through reconciliation with the world or by tax reforms within the country. They also did their best to sabotage efforts to improve the cultural atmosphere and civil rights conditions, hoping to render, in the public’s eyes, the administration and the whole notion of moderation useless at the end of the day.

Principlists have long lost patience for the administration’s first term to end, looking forward to prevent Rouhani’s reelection in the next year’s race. Rewind a little and you see Rouhani’s allies have achieved great gains in the parliamentary election, despite sweeping disqualifications, monopolized nation-wide media and pressures imposed during their campaigns. And that could mean the end of Principlism, at least for now.

Nonetheless, the line-up of the parliament to come is not that easy to figure. Even though official results have come out, both sides still insist to have won a majority. In fact, it takes a quick look into a spectroscope, to see the next Majlis, to be fair, is a hodgepodge of ‘independent’ new faces, Principlists, Reformists and moderates and that means complication that might well go on until the very end. With the latter two’s coalition and the potential in the independents, Rouhani hopes his administration will not have to worry, at least as much as it has, about much-needed legislation in its last year. Before that however, comes an inevitable showdown when the Majlis will vote on the new Speaker.

The main candidates are sitting Speaker Ali Larijani and former Vice President Mohammad-Reza Aref. The former is a firmly established political figure known for his ability to cut paths within the establishment. Given the assumption by many that the next Majlis will be divided between proponents and opponents of the nuclear deal, at least until the JCPOA’s implementation remains a concerning issues for the country, we should not forget Larijani’s role in wrapping up the ninth parliament’s debates over the agreement, where he paved the way for the seal of approval on Rouhani administration’s greatest achievement in diplomacy. And that distanced Principlists from him, leading to his isolated campaign in the city of Qom where he surprisingly finished second to a candidate from Paydari. On the other side stands Mohammad-Reza Aref, one of the few Reformists still able to pass through the Guardian Council’s fine-grained sieve. Aref stepped down in favor of Rouhani back in the 2013 presidential race, giving away millions of his anticipated ballots into Rouhani’s boxes. Bear in mind that he also represents more than two million votes cast in Tehran, hence the most popular MP already. Aref’s last shot at political leadership, as it has been called, will be Rouhani’s last real chance to pay homage to his Reformist supporters and persuade them to continue backing him for an otherwise almost impossible reelection. However, both Larijani and Aref are good and bad options for President Rouhani.

While it is far from a chest-thumping competition for the two, as it appears, the camps behind them have no reason to let go. Seeking a real comeback, Reformists are in sheer need of getting their voice heard, not only on the President’s Tweeter account but in the top decision-making spaces left for them. On the flipside, their belief that they could grease the wheels for Rouhani’s intended reforms could turn up to be a mere pipe dream if it happens to be the Sixth Majlis replayed. Despite all doubts, they have no choice but to step forward voraciously, as the young generation behind them expects them to.

The Principlists, now exceptionally left with the minimal choice of resorting to Larijani, know losing in the game might well end up with a vacuum in which they would have to resort to their very impossible option: the return of Ahmadinejad. Their umbrella coalition now needs to embrace moderates to help keep the Larijani gem inside their cohort. If they fail to do so, perhaps the only way ahead will be the double-edged sword of further radicalization.

The misty reports on what side has won a majority of seats in the next parliament are now mirrored in the mysterious possibilities of choosing the speaker. Although the MPs are the ones who will decide, the Rouhani administration will also have to deal with the problem of side-taking inherent in the very idea of moderation in order to lobby while it has time. So far, the administration has shown weak signals in favor of Aref and this is bold.