Why Should We Be Worried about Turkey?
(Citizens pay tribute to the victims of the Ankara terrorist attack; Photo: EPA)
The terrorist attack that took place in Ankara last Saturday, the most violent in Turkey's history, has terrorized everyone: from Turkish citizens, to Middle Easterners to Europeans.
On Monday the 13th of October, Turkey's Ministry of Interior called ISIS members as the main suspects of the terror attack.
It is quite natural if the Turkish citizens are terrorized by the attack. The threat has now boomeranged. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the President of Turkey, and his AKP party, Hakan Fidan, Head of the National Intelligence Organization of Turkey (MIT), and other Turkish officials are feeling the threat closer than ever. Up until recently, Erdogan and Fidan insisted on backing ISIS, believing the group could serve their interests. Informed sources who have spoken on condition of anonymity to Iranian Diplomacy have stated that Ankara, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in particularly, has warned the Iraqi officials that the Popular Mobilization Forces should not step foot in Mosul, Iraq's second largest city now under the occupation of ISIS; otherwise, Turkey would intervene.
Apparently, Ankara aims to depict itself as the champion of the Sunni cause and capitalize on the terror spread by ISIS to attract support from Sunni states of the region. Rumors have spread that Ankara has suggested dividing Iraq into two zones of influence: south for the Iranians, and north for the Turks.
There is still no strong evidence about who launched the Saturday terrorist attack. However, the incident can change the geopolitical calculus in the region. Presuming that ISIS was behind the attack, Europe should feel ISIS breathing down its neck. Turkey is the gateway to Europe, and a terrorist attack in Ankara means terrorism is one step closer to the European continent.
But Turkey is not the only country that should be afraid. Iran has its own reasons for fear, not least because of policies followed by Turkey in the recent months vis-à-vis Iran.
Two days after the Ankara terrorist attack, BBC reported on Al-Qaida leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri's 20-minute message calling upon all the so-called 'jihadi' groups to unite against Iran. The authenticity of the message has not been verified yet, since it has been released only by BBC, yet, in case of authenticity, we should be doubly concerned. This is a sign that Iran's ideological and religious enemies are trying to reach consensus over attacking a single target.
There is no doubt that Al-Qaida, ISIS and other jihad groups find it much easier to compromise with Sunni and Arab states rather than Iran, an adherent to Shiite doctrines which they strongly despise.
How would Turkey shift its strategy regarding ISIS?
Let's not forget that Turkey views Iran as its potential rival and is engaged in a tough regional competition with Tehran. A number of Turkish media consistently claim that Iran and the PKK are hand in hand in undermining Turkey's national security; a dangerous attitude that could provoke Turkish citizens' sense of grudge against Iran and encourage Ankara and terrorist groups to focus on Tehran. Such a shift would most probably have the support of Arab states such as Saudi Arabia.