Saudi Arabia, the Loser in Yemen
Following the Islamic Awakening in the Middle East, the developments in this region have entered a new and critical stage. On one hand, the political and regional factions which were the result of the chain revolutions in 2011 and 2012 are now completed and, on the other hand, the revelation of relations between the extra-regional powers, particularly the US, with these factions have concerned the conservative Arab regimes led by Saudi Arabia.
Historically, the recent Saudi and Egyptian military aggression is not a new issue, because these two countries have, several times, attacked this poor country of the peninsula in support of their lackey governments in this country. The difference this time is the hastiness that Saudi Arabia showed in launching this military intervention in Yemen which is due to several internal and external reasons.
In the internal scene, Saudi Arabia is faced with the weakness of its old rulers, a legitimacy crisis and the possibility of out-of-control uprisings particularly by the Shiites of eastern Saudi Arabia. In the regional scene, Saudi Arabia has witnessed the collapse of the security boundaries surrounding itself which started in Bahrain and bore fruit in Yemen and frightened the royal family.
But in the international scene, we have witnessed the end of four decades of hostility between Iran and the US which has been achieved after more than a year of nuclear negotiations. If these negotiations lead to an agreement, and the signs are indicative of this result, then many of the equations which the conservative Arabs had drawn up for themselves will change.
On this basis, when the Ansarullah militia of Yemen moved towards Aden, in order to disrupt the possible coalition of Mansour Hadi with some governments of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council, Saudi Arabia lost its patience and officially launched air strikes against the defenseless people of Yemen with the help of the armies of Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Now that ten days have passed since the beginning of this assault, UNICEF, while condemning these attacks, has stated that 62 victims among the hundreds of civilian casualties of these attacks were children. Furthermore, many Islamic and human rights organizations and also political and religious figures have condemned these measures taken by Saudi Arabia and its allies which will deepen the rift between Muslims.
On the other hand, Mansour Hadi and his supporters who had planned his escape to Aden and the establishment of a government in exile, similar to what happened in Libya, failed in their attempts due to their misinterpretations of the positions of the political and ethnic groups in this country. This issue encouraged Saudi officials to speedily launch these imprudent attacks. Mansour Hadi had assumed that his entrance into Aden would be welcomed by the separatist al-Hirak movement and that Sunni tribes would pledge their allegiance to him and that he would have the support of the PGCC and some members of the Arab League. But this did not happen and Mansour Hadi fled to Riyadh when military forces of Yemen and the Ansarullah militia reached this city.
The most important question is, will Saudi Arabia succeed in returning the previous desirable conditions to Yemen through military intervention? Before answering this question, several points must be considered. Militarily, Saudi Arabia’s next step to return Mansour Hadi to power in Yemen should be the entrance of the Saudi army inside Yemeni territory. Although military strikes are necessary to destroy the military and logistic capabilities of Ansarullah, military ground attacks will be needed to complete this task. At the same time, the situation on the ground is not suitable for the entrance of Saudi forces and will not be beneficial for Saudi Arabia. The only geographical region through which Saudi Arabia would be able to enter its ground forces into Yemen is the mountainous northwestern regions of Saudi Arabia which are inhabited by the Shiites. The eastern borders of Saudi Arabia are deserts and easy to pass through but they do not have any military value. The Saudi army is a classic one and cannot fight the militia of Ansarullah in northern Yemen. Furthermore, the continuation of air strikes and the increasing number of civilian casualties and the destruction of Yemeni infrastructures will frustrate the public opinion of the region and the people of Yemen in particular. Thus Saudi Arabia will have to leave this attack without any achievement, only losing its expensive jetfighters.
Meanwhile, the success of Saudi Arabia in returning Mansour Hadi to Yemen would be a return to point zero, meaning the years after 2012 and the downfall of Ali Abdullah Saleh and the initiative of the Gulf Plan with the US’ support which was, in fact, the motivation behind the revolution of the Yemeni people. Thus, what is the winning card of Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies in Yemen except the al-Qaeda forces? Besides, the Yemenis, including the Sunnis, do not have a positive view of Hadi and his allies. The fact that, six months after the September 21 revolution and the entrance of Ansarullah forces to Sana’a, no serious protest has been seen shows that the people of Yemen are not in favor of the past conditions.
On the other hand, although the US has supported air strikes against Yemen, it does not seem that under the present conditions such support would resolve the problems of the region. Of course, it can be assumed that the US support is to prevent the increasing influence of Iran in Yemen. The US, which has a military base in the south of Yemen opposes the coming to power of a group which would be close to Iran. But it is faced with the paradox of the successful fight of Ansarullah against al-Qaeda as well and that is why it has been silent during the past few months.
Another reason behind the US support of this attack is the policy of burnt land which is an understanding with Saudi Arabia. That is why during recent days the economic infrastructures, refineries and oil sources have been attacked besides the military targets so that in case of the coming to power of a popular government and the failure of Saudi Arabia the future government would be faced with numerous problems and will have a hard time meeting popular demands.
Conclusion
The spread of militarism in Yemen will not only fail to respond to the people’s accumulative demands, but it will also prepare the ground for new crises in the Middle East and intensify the differences between the Muslims. Although Ansarullah, as the political branch of the Houthis, does not represent all the people of Yemen, it represents the real demands of the Yemeni people which are the equal distribution of political power, fair distribution of economic resources and the establishment of security. The bitter experience of years of foreign intervention by the US and Saudi Arabia in Yemen has led to the feeling of xenophobia in this country. Therefore, although it is too early to predict the result of these attacks against Yemen, it is certain that Saudi Arabia and its allies do not have a justifiable option to return Mansour Hadi to Yemen. On the contrary, it seems that Saudi Arabia is pursuing a path which would prepare the ground for regional conflicts. At the same time, in the case of the military victory of Ansarullah, this group needs to interact with other political and ethnic groups of Yemen in order to be able to establish an inclusive government which would have the support of all political factions and would not be harmed by the interference of conservative Arab governments.