Ankara and the Ramifications of Crisis in Damascus

What is your analysis of the recent explosion in Ankara? Is Turkey moving towards unrest?

Yes. See, when a country like Turkey which, following the coming to power of the Erdogan government, has based its foreign policy on zero crisis with its neighbors, which has led to immediate economic development in Turkey and as a result widespread domestic peace in the political economic atmosphere, changes its policy and moves towards supporting the terrorist movement against one of its neighboring countries and engages itself in a military and political crisis, it will naturally involve its domestic atmosphere with radicalism; particularly because Turkey has defined a vast role for itself in the crisis in Syria including the recruitment, training, and arming of radical forces from around the world and dispatching them to its neighboring country. This issue has led to strong disagreements inside Turkey and these disagreements provide the foundations of radical behavior, especially that the major issue for radical movements in the world of Islam is the US and wherever they find an open space, they take advantage of the opportunity. At the present time, they have found a suitable ground in Turkey and it is obvious that Turkey will be involved in such matters.

You mentioned Turkey's foreign policy after the coming to power of the Justice and Development Party in Turkey based on zero problems with neighbors. Do you believe that Turkey's foreign policy has changed during recent years and Turkey has retreated from the concept of zero problems with its neighbors?

Yes. It can be said that Turkey's policies have changed during the last two years. These changes in Turkey's policy can be seen with regard to Iraq and Syria. Changes in Turkey's policy regarding Iran can also be seen but in a weaker form. Furthermore, the same situation exists in relation with Greece and Cyprus and serious changes have also occurred in these areas. Nevertheless, due to the sensitivities of the issues of Iraq, Syria, and Iran, changes in Turkey's foreign policy with regard to Greece and Cyprus are not paid attention to. Therefore, it must be concluded that such changes have taken place in Turkey's foreign policy.

What is the reason behind these changes?

These changes have occurred due to changes made in Turkey's foreign policy with regard to Syria. When the first protests in Syria took place about two years ago, Turkey thought that these protests would lead to rapid developments in Syria. In fact, Turkey's analysis was that these developments had reached Syria following the wave of Islamic awakening in the Arab states and that it could create structural development in this country with little investment. Turkey hoped that with structural changes in Syria and the coming to power of a government closer to it, it would provide the grounds for the development of its foreign policy towards the Middle East and North Africa. This strategic mistake has caused Turkey to enter a crisis which has been going on since two years ago.

How has Turkey’s approach with regard to Syria impacted this country’s relations with Iraq, causing them to become so damaged?

Following the prolongation of the Syrian crisis and the formation of some kind of independence for the Syrian Kurds, the problems with the Kurds have again been highlighted in Turkey. To cover these problems, Turkey has been forced to change its foreign policy with regard to the Kurds and improve its relations with the Kurdistan province in Iraq and follow a positive approach. Thus, this measure has created a huge crisis with Iraq's central government. The issue of giving asylum to Tariq al-Hashimi, Iraq's vice-president who was being prosecuted in Iraq on charges of terrorist activities, enflamed this issue.

Thus, in your opinion, has Turkey's policy with regard to the Kurds changed?

No major and strategic changes have taken place in this policy. The crisis of the Kurds in Turkey is a structural crisis and that is why this crisis has been going on for more than thirty years and it does not seem that it will be solved any time soon. The changes which happen in Turkey’s foreign policy are not sustainable. In this case also, as soon as the crisis in Syria is downgraded or ended or changed in form, the policies of the Turkish government with regard to Kurdish issues will again fundamentally be changed. Therefore, the Kurdish crisis is structural, historical, and ethnic and cannot easily be solved.

Why then did Turkey follow this approach with regard to the government of Iraq?

This approach is pursued due to the ideological inclination of Turkey's foreign policy where religion is dominant. In fact, it should be said that inclination towards ethnicism with emphasis on supporting the Sunnis and the idea of neo-Ottomanism have joined hands in Turkey's foreign policy and transformed the stable and unchallenging foreign policy of the country into a challenging foreign policy. The consequences of this challenging foreign policy have even been transferred to Turkey's relations with Russia and have created problems. Thus, this crisis in Turkey's foreign policy has emerged and as time passes, the problems of this country's foreign policy will grow more and more.

Considering these problems, is it possible that the Erdogan government will ignore this policy and return to the previous one and reduce challenges with its neighbors?

No, I don't think so. This government has stepped onto a path, where returning is unimaginable. Particularly, it must be pointed out that the intelligence agents of the Turkish government are a combination of active terrorists in Syria and anti-government movements in that country which continuously give false information to Turkey and draw an incorrect path for it and cause Turkey to, unintentionally, become more involved in the Syrian crisis. Hence, retreating from this policy, in my opinion, is not possible. And the government of Turkey, as it has become involved in this crisis during the past two years, will be more involved with the hope of solving this crisis in the near future. As long as this government is in power in Turkey, there will be no changes in its foreign policy.

Considering the fact that you believe Turkey will continue this trend, is it possible that tensions in Turkey's relations with Iran could grow?

In my opinion, tensions in Iran-Turkey relations will not grow more than the present level; because both sides know that increasing the present crisis will multiply problems for both countries. Therefore, it is not logical, neither for Turkey nor for Iran, to intensify the crises in the region. Therefore, in their competitions in Syria and Iraq, both sides practically confront each other indirectly and they make efforts to prevent serious impacts of tensions on their direct relations. In my opinion, both sides will also observe this level in the future.