Countries’ Disintegration, Erdogan’s New Power-Seeking Tool

Recently, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary General of the Lebanese Hezbollah, has stated that some Arab countries are on the verge of disintegration and the Islamic nations must resist against disintegrating plans designed for western Asia. What is your assessment of these statements? 

In my opinion, Mr. Nasrallah attempts to highlight the threat of disintegration in the region, particularly with regard to Syria, to dissuade Arab states from continuing their support for Bashar Assad's opposition. Nevertheless, right now, countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey are militarily supporting Assad's opposition and these supports have weakened the government of Syria which is an ally of the Lebanese Hezbollah. Nasrollah is concerned that with the downfall of Bashar Assad, the position of Hezbollah in Lebanon would also be threatened and weakened. Thus, I believe that highlighting the disintegration of the Islamic countries is aimed at threatening and preventing Turkey and Arab countries from continuing this trend. 

Which countries of the region are threatened by disintegration? 

At the present time and considering developments in recent years in Iraq and Syria, it is only the issue of the Kurds which could lead to disintegration. The ongoing crisis in Syria and the subsequent deadlock has given rise to the issue that perhaps the only solution to end violence in this country would be its disintegration. But in my opinion, this issue cannot be applied to Iraq, for it is true that there are differences between the Iraqi government and the Kurdistan province, but this does not mean that this country is on the verge of disintegration. I believe that the differences in Iraq are political and religious, and not ethnic and tribal. That is why the issue of Iraq is not the same as Syria's. During recent years, Iraq has been able to reduce the possibility of disintegration in this country by recognizing the rights of the ethnic minorities, especially the Kurds.

During recent days, Noori Maleki, Iraq's Prime Minister, has accused Erdogan, Turkey's Prime Minister, of seeking to disintegrate Syria and Iraq. Is this statement correct in your opinion?

Due to the special conditions that were created in Turkey and the consequent situation in the region during recent years, Mr. Erdogan felt that he could use this atmosphere to become the leader of the region. When this approach was joined with the ideas of Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkey's Foreign Minister, a new Ottamanism was created. There is no doubt that the Arab Spring developments helped Turkey in the beginning, but Mohammad Morsi's coming to power overshadowed Erdogan's leadership. Nevertheless, considering Morsi's domestic problems and the instability of this country, Erdogan has attempted to take advantage of Syria's crisis to stabilize his situation. Certainly, if countries like Syria and Iraq are disintegrated, Turkey will better be able to pursue its Neo-Ottoman ideas but it should not be forgotten that Turkey itself is confronted with the problem of the Kurds and the disintegration of these two countries could also lead the Turkish Kurds towards separation from this country. 

Last Thursday, two Kurdish legislators visited Ocalan in prison where he is spending his life sentence and it is said that they have reached positive results. How related can this event be with other developments in the region?

There is no doubt that this event is related to other developments in the region. It seems that Erdogan is attempting to somehow solve the problems of the Turkish Kurds. Undoubtedly, the issue of the PKK and Abdullah Ocalan takes a large part of Erdogan's energy and the resolution of this problem will help Erdogan in his regional activities. 

Therefore, might Turkey have a plan to disintegrate the neighboring countries and establish Kurdistan?

Erdogan might have various inclinations but this does not mean that such a thing would happen. In my opinion, this path depends on international consensus and regional support which does not exist now. I believe geographical changes in the region, at least for the time being, are not possible. It does not seem that even the West and NATO agree with this idea.

What is the West's approach with regard to the disintegration of other countries?

The West and the US in particular have supported freedom-seeking movements of countries following WWI and Wilson’s Fourteen Points.  This issue has led to the disintegration of some countries. The reason was that the disintegration of countries created an open atmosphere for the economic activities of the West. In fact, the West intended to hold the economic world in its own hands and for new markets to be formed for the expansion of their trade.

To what extent would Obama agree with this matter? 

Within the next few days, Obama will officially begin his second presidential term. Obama is faced with three serious issues. These three crises are: the Syrian crisis, Iran's atomic dossier, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. It seems that the crisis in Syria will be on top of Obama's agenda. The US approach with regard to Syria will be to weaken the crisis and not to enflame it. Any project to disintegrate countries could intensify the crisis in the region. Therefore, it does not seem that Obama would agree with any disintegration plan, at least in the near future.