Why Turkey Interferes in Iraq’s Domestic Affairs

Verbal disputes between Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Noori al-Maleki, the Prime Ministers of Turkey and Iraq, have caused tensions in relations between the two countries and might have even more negative ramifications in the future.

In some cases, harsh words were expressed by Davutoglu and Erdogan with regard to Iraqi affairs, mainly after the issue of Tariq al-Hashimi who sought asylum in Turkey. Following this issue, tension was created in relations between these two countries and now it has reached a point that Iraqi officials and Noori al-Maleki himself accuse Turkey of interfering in Iraq's domestic affairs. In his latest statements, al-Maleki has pointed out that Turkey seeks Iraq's disintegration. These statements are related to Turkey's measures regarding Iraq's domestic issues, including the relations Turkey has established with the Iraq’s political and ethnic groups. These relations have been strengthened with the Kurds and some movements like the al-Iraqiya movement. At the same time, Turkey has strengthened its relations with other groups like that of Muqtada Sadr and all of these trends indicate that Erdogan is pursuing new tactics with regard to Iraq. It was last week that Erdogan, in a statement which was heavily covered in Iraqi media, encouraged the Kurds and the al-Iraqiya movement to file a complaint against Noori al-Maleki based on charges of tribalism and sectarianism in the UN. Erdogan's statements, proclaiming that Maleki rules over the minority, were so strongly reflected in Iraq that demonstrations were held in protest to his remarks. The issue that was emphasized in Iraq was that Erdogan had called the Iraqi Shiites a minority while they make up 60% of this country's population. But the question is what elements have caused a change in Turkey's view of Iraq and some countries of the region or what elements influenced the tension between Turkey and Iraq.

I believe that a major part of Turkey's foreign policy with regard to Iraq is related to the change of priorities and concepts in Turkey and the Justice and Development Party. It means that the present policy of Turkey is to expand its influence in neighboring countries and the Middle East based on both ideology and economy. In other words, the Middle East has gone through fundamental social and political changes and besides developments in Egypt and other countries, Syria is undergoing changes and Turkey's policy is regime change in this neighboring country. It seems that Turkey has defined a line in its view of neighboring countries and the Middle East which suits its ideological and economic interests. Apart from this issue, Turkey's economic relations with Middle Eastern countries can be studied in another way. But if Turkey's change of outlook is considered, Iraq is not an exception and it seems that Turkey follows two objectives in Iraq: 

1. Iraq is Turkey's important neighboring country with which it has security friction, a part of which is related to the presence of the PKK in Iraq. The issue of the Kurds and their new political situation affects Turkey's policies. Therefore, there are signs of change in Turkey's view of Iraq. It seems that through strengthening its relations with the Kurds, Turkey tries to minimize the influence of the PKK in Turkey and provide a middle path to end the fear of its influence in Iraq. This is while Iraq's central government has less of an effect in regional developments. But Turkey believes that nowadays the Kurds are in a position to be more influential in the region. By strengthening its relations with the Kurds, Turkey seeks to challenge the Noori al-Maleki government. This issue can be analyzed in the positions and statements made by Turkish officials with regard to the Kurdish region and other groups in Iraq. 

2. Turkey intends to gain considerable influence in the political structure of Iraq. Its aim is to play an important role in Iraq's developments. Turkey has, hitherto, played a less significant role compared with other players like Iran. Changing the political structure or factions in Iraq is an important role for Turkey and Turkey's closeness with al-Iraqiya, Sunni groups, Kurds, and even some Shiite factions must be assessed within the same framework. It can more accurately be said that Turkey's encouragements direct them towards a new political structure in Iraq in order to fight against the al-Maleki government and create a new political coalition for Iraq's future elections so that Turkey's political, economic, and military influence in this country expands. Turkish officials believe that as long as Maleki is in power, this objective will not be fulfilled and today Turkey does not play a significant role in Iraq.

Therefore, changes in Turkey's approach with regard to Iraq during the past year were not solely related to its support of Tariq al-Hashimi; it pursues rather a higher horizon to impact the political and governmental structures of Iraq, parallel to attempts made by Saudi Arabia. It seems that Turkey's policy with regard to Iraq is similar to that of the Saudis in some parts, particularly in its positions regarding the Sunnis and some Sunni tribes in the al-Anbar region have become dependent on foreign support. Furthermore, during the last few days in demonstrations by Sunni groups in al-Anbar, Mosul, and some central cities of Iraq, the residents of which are Sunnis, the slogan that was chanted was that Maleki pays no attention to the Sunnis and their reference has been to the arrest of Rafe al-Essawi's guards and the provocations in recent days as well as to the issue of Tariq al-Hashimi. The Sunnis consider the issue from a political point of view and accuse Maleki of belittling the Sunnis, not paying attention to their needs and putting them on the sidelines of power. The view from outside of Iraq is the same, particularly in Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Maleki's record has not been supported by other Iraqi factions. For example, the Kurds are also of the opinion that Maleki has monopolized power and does not pay any attention to other factions. Consequently, the intensification of tensions between Kurdistan and the Iraqi government is caused by the domestic atmosphere of Iraq and the existing disputes in the Maleki government as well as outside views with regard to their positions. Thus, it seems that the Kurds who were among the supporters of Noori al- Maleki in the formation of his 1st and 2nd governments have separated themselves from Maleki and established close relations with al-Iraqiya and even Muqtada Sadr. All these issues indicate that we should expect a new political structure in Iraq.