Hamas Must Make A Deadly Israel Calculation

The rocket fire from Gaza into Israel had been steadily increasing, not just over the past two weeks, but the past three years.

In the aftermath of Israel’s punitive ground and air offensive in Gaza in 2008 the rate of missiles from into Israel, which had been increasing, fell away substantially.

In 2009, 310 missiles were fired, in 2010 there were 400, in 2011 - 850, and so far this year around 1,200.

The 2012 statistic is similar to the level in 2008 which triggered Operation Cast Lead.

On Monday, the Israeli government issued a very pointed statement saying that if rocket fire continued it would hold Hamas responsible.

The Israelis knew that most of the missiles were fired by groups such as Islamic Jihad, but they were warning Hamas that as the governing power in Gaza it would targeted if more missiles were fired.

It was no surprise when, after several more missiles fell in Israel, the IDF went after the Hamas military leader Ahmed Jibril and other Hamas targets including police stations.

Israel will continue to target Hamas as well as other groups in Gaza and there is likely to be 'collateral damage'.

The Israelis may well be using what are called 'precision weapons', but Gaza is so crowded with people, and the militant groups deliberately hide among the civilians, that its probable there will be civilian casualties. There is no cover for the Gaza civilians in which to shelter.

On the other side of the border, about a million Israelis, within range of the rockets, will spend the next few days in bunkers.

The schools are closed and economic activity will slow dramatically.

In many ways, the next move belongs to Hamas. It has a very difficult, indeed deadly, calculation to make.

The Israeli air strikes are to tell Hamas they will be hammered, if rocket fire continues.

But for Hamas to survive it has to be seen to be 'the resistor'. If not it will cede that title to even more radical Islamist groups. So it is probable there will be return fire.

Hamas also has the very deep pockets of Qatar to help them. This flare-up comes shortly after the Emir visited Gaza promising massive support. If Gaza suffers the way it did four years ago, the Qataris will help Hamas rebuild.

The missiles fired from Gaza are indiscriminate. They do not have guidance systems and thus are not precise. They are fired towards Israeli towns with the intention of causing as many civilian casualties as possible. However, they usually fall in open ground.

The calculation Hamas has to make is how many missiles it allows to be fired. There is a number, and they don't know what it is, above which will trigger a ground operation by the IDF similar to Operation Cast Lead.

Every missile fired carries the risk of triggering the ground attack because if there is a single Israeli civilian fatality caused by rocket fire, the IDF will probably go in.