Keep Up Ties with Russia

I believe that Iran can not have any strategic allies. Our country has a unique feature and that is it can't move beyond a certain level in its relations with other countries. We are significantly different from other nations as to ethnicity, religion or language. Take Russia, Syria and Venezuela for example, the countries we cooperate with but can not regard them as strategic allies.

 

This is true especially for Russia. Russians are the symbol of barbarism and atrocity inside Iran. This stems from Iran-Russia wars in the 19^th century after which Iran ceded an important part of its territory in Caucasus. No Iranian can ever forget these wars and the sorrow is reflected in Azeri music and literature.

 

So we are not Russia's strategic ally but we do have strategic relations with this country. It is within this framework that we follow cooperation with Russians in nuclear and defense affairs, Central Asia and Caucasus, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and north-south corridor. The two countries also collaborate in oil and gas industry, satellite and space technology and cement, Russian timber and paper trade. There is also economic cooperation between Iranian and Russian provinces.

 

I believe that these strategic ties are a result of Russians' outlook. They think that they're still a superpower. But let's not forget that according to the latest estimates, Russia has got the most powerful ground forces in the world, followed by China and the United States. They also possess advanced technology of aerial defense systems and torpedoes.

 

Russians know how to influence global developments. Their relation with Iran is based on this awareness. Sometime we mistakenly think that Russians will never help us. This is as wrong as thinking that they will definitely fulfill their promise about Bushehr nuclear power plant. In other words, we should know that there are factors that influence Russia's behavior in global stage.

 

U.S.-Russia ties are also highly important. Russians, particularly after 9/11, found out that containing Americans is not that easy. They understood that when Americans talk about war against terrorism, they mean it. Although they doubted United States' definition of terrorism, later they came on board and claimed that they, too, had this problem: the Chechnyans. They even accepted to cooperate with Americans on terrorism.

 

However, they don't regard Iran as a terrorist state since that'll hamper their ambition to become a superpower. In defense affairs, especially missiles and aerial defense system, the Russians are truly helping Iran, but this doesn't mean that they don't provide Iran's opponents with these technologies. As we saw, they provided Iraq, and probably Saudi Arabia, with Scud missiles.

 

In my opinion Iran must keep up its limited but friendly relations with Russia. However, this depends on Iran's potential. Naturally, the more Iran becomes active in potential areas, the more Russians will become interested. On the other hand, if Iran neglects the potentials, Russians will easily disregard our interests.

 

For example, up to now unfortunately we have not followed a certain policy for Caspian Sea's legal regime. Since 1992 when the first Caspian summit was held in Tehran, we have changed our stance repeatedly. At first we asked for condominium, and then we supported partition.

 

When Kazakhstan claimed a 28% share of the Caspian Sea, we accepted their claim but asked for a 20% share for ourselves. Now we have returned to the principle of condominium that is based on 1921 and 1949 treaties. These treaties have explicitly addressed that the sea is shared between the two countries (Iran and Russia/USSR) and that they cooperate in exploitation everything in the sea. Of course shared use doesn't mean 50-50 use and this idea, which was promoted during Reformists' rule, was wrong and just aroused Iranians' expectations.

 

What are the Russians ought to now? They have a dual approach towards exploitations in the Caspian Sea. They support condominium for surface of the sea and partition for the bed. Iran has not accepted this procedure though I think it's reasonable.

 

Up to now other littoral states have demarcated their share to a large extent. Kazakhstan and Russia signed a border agreement in 1998. This contract was finalized by Putin and Nazarbayev in 2001. A similar contract was signed between Putin and Heydar Aliyev in 2000 and in 1996 Turkmens and Kazakhs fixed their border, so 53% of the sea has remained that has to be divided between three countries. That means a 17.5% share for our country.

 

We can't expect Russia to serve interests of Iran all the time, but in some occasions they can be helpful to us. For instance Russia doesn't permit fleet under the flag of any other country to enter the Caspian, otherwise American fleet were now moving in this sea. For this reason, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan's joint maneuvers with United States are performed outside the Caspian Sea. Since there are no foreign military forces in this sea, I think the Islamic Republic of Iran must show further tolerance and devise a model for partnership.

 

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization has an anti-terrorism agenda and doesn’t have any significant advantages for Iran. Our participation in its summit was a wise move, but repeated attendance can make others think that Iran needs to participate. As for transit cooperation with Russia, I must say that using the north-south corridor (Nostrak) will in some cases decrease the costs of transportation to one-third.

 

In Central Asia and Caucasus we have relatively acted better than Turkey. On the one hand Turkey is suspicious to some countries and on the other hand Russia believes that Turks are directing revolts in Chechnya. Also Saudi Arabia is encouraging radicalism through Turkey, but Iranians are not a suspect in these cases. In Tajikistan and more or less in Nagorno-Karabakh we have cooperated with Russians. In sum, Russia trusts Iran more than it trusts other countries.

 

As to expansion of bilateral ties, Russians are fully prepared and welcome this change. There was a time when Iran-Russia trade volume was around 100 million dollars. Later, this increased to 500 million dollars and currently it is 4 billion dollars. The best move of Mr. Rafsanjani during his visit to USSR was providing an opportunity for cooperation between provinces. Gilan Province's cooperation with Moscow is now more than its cooperation with Tehran. There is also cooperation between Ardebil Province and Dagestan Republic, and Mazandaran Province and Astrakhan.

 

Russia has got advanced defensive technology. Even during Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's reign before the revolution, Iranians believed that Russians' antiaircraft machinery work better than their American similar. At that time our antiaircraft system was Russian and our transportation system belonged to East Germany. Of course our fighter planes and the electronic system of army were American.

 

Russia is still the second exporter of arms in the world. Even U.S. allies such as Saudi Arabia and some European countries tend to buy Russian weapons. These weapons are cheaper than the American version and Russia doesn't impose any conditions on their purchase.

 

The last area of mutual interest is transportation. Currently the Khazar Sea Shipping Lines has ordered construction of four ships to Russians. The truth is that Russians are taking use of the Caspian 10 times as we do and we should try to narrow this gap.

 

The important point here is that of sanction. U.S. and Security Council sanctions force us to focus on our assets in the Caspian Sea and consolidate of our cooperation with Russia. If any sanction is going to be imposed on Iran, it will be enforced through our southern borders, that is, Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Increase of cooperation through Volga, Volga-Don Canal, the Black Sea and Sea of Azov must be taken into consideration. Russians also intend to build a canal towards the Persian Gulf and I suggest we should collaborate in this project.

 

In 2002 After the Ashgabat Summit which Mr. Khatami attended, Russia performed a maneuver in the Caspian Sea. What they sought by this maneuver, and generally by their military presence in the Caspian Sea, was preparedness to quell likely threats. They also want to have access to Chechnya. I don’t think Russians ever aim to attack Iran through the Caspian because Iran is not their enemy in this region. Of course some believe that Russians performed this maneuver because Iran had carried out a maneuver earlier.

 

There was a time when Iran-USSR ties were so strained that Russians even rejected our fully beneficial proposals. From that point we have reached to a level that we sign multi-billion dollar contracts in defense and nuclear affairs. In fact, one of the landmark achievements of Islamic Republic's foreign policy is the shift in Iran-Russia ties.

 

This is a result of Iran's attempts and I think the Supreme Leader and Mr. Rafsanjani believe in strong ties with Russia. Some others think Russia is not a powerful country since it suffers problems which it can't overcome. True that everyday a group of people die from hunger in Moscow but that's not a good reason to claim that Russia is a weak country.

 

There are three approaches towards Iran-Russia ties: 1. strategic ties with Russia, 2. normal relations with Russia, and 3. avoiding contact with Russia. Even our financial system blocks the payment of Russians' invoice because the expert body of government tends to cooperate with West.

 

I believe that Russia is still one of the most important countries for Iran, not because of the commodities they sell us, but because of their struggle with America in the international stage and the differences they have with West. Therefore we must have close relations with our neighbor even if this is costly for us.

 

However, we can change the level of our relations whenever we want. For example, during Mr. Rafsanjani's presidency we followed an actual policy of exporting goods to Russia. Even a great load of our products had medium technology, however; they were welcomed by the Russian Muslims due to Islamic and historical reasons.

 

But how does Russia benefit from friendly relations with Iran? The answer is Russia can become an international actor only when it has Iran by its side. According to an agreement between Chernomyrdin and Al Gore, Russians promised not to cooperate with Iran but they backtracked. This means that Russia has not accepted United States' hegemony in the global order. So Iran-Russia have mutually beneficial relations.

 

By saying all these I meant to say that we have to keep our relations with Russia at the current level, though we know they don't fulfill their promises at times and we are aware of the limits of their cooperation. They will never state that attacking Iran is attacking Russia. Not only Russia but no other country will do so for us.

 

Next point is that we must keep in mind that Russia doesn’t want to have an anti-American country, but an independent country by its side. China-Russia partnership is based on the same outlook. China is not anti-American but independent country and has close cooperation with independent France, as does Russia with other independent countries.

 

But if they have friendly relations in many areas, Iran and Russia are definitely contenders when it comes to energy. Despite U.S. pressures –that wants Baku-Ceyhan-Tblisi to be the only pipeline of the Caspian Sea- Russians constructed the Tengiz-Novorossiysk pipeline. They also cause troubles for Kazakhstan by alternating the tariffs.

 

After 9/11 Putin signed a strategic agreement with the United States and permitted this country to use Russia and Central Asian countries' territory in war against terrorism. In fact Russia gave this permission under two conditions: first to recognize Chechnyans as terrorists and second to invest in energy. However, Russia's view towards energy is still that of an empire.

 Putin believes that what the Tsar did with military forces, he has to do with energy and pipeline. That's why Russians are investing in Turkmenistan, Armenia and Uzbekistan. They have also controlled the oil and gas industry of Eastern and Central Europe. I think that Putin's empire is based on two pillars: oil and gas, and military security. Russia controls all the energy network of this region. Such a wise policy I believe.