1390: The Year to Launch the Bushehr Nuclear Plant

One of the most important developments in the field of bilateral relations between Iran and Russia was Russia’s vote in favor of the UN Security Council Resolution 1929, imposing new sanctions on Iran. Russian alignment with the West for the fourth resolution of the Security Council on wider sanctions against Iran, adopted on 9 June 2010, caused offense to Iran and was followed by the strong reactions of Iranian authorities. For the first time, the Iranian authorities strongly criticized this Russian behavior.

Adoption of Resolution 1929 was followed by other problems. Subsequently, Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, referring to the resolution, explicitly declared that Moscow would stop the delivery of S300 defense missiles to Iran, despite the contract between Iran and Russia (signed in 1384) for the sale of the missile systems to Iran. Relations between Iran and Russia were thus further damaged, and this was followed by reactions illustrating the cold bilateral relations.

Moreover, the issue of launching the Bushehr plant in ‘89 was of importance in bilateral relations because it was expected that the plant be commissioned and the produced electricity be utilized in the power grid. Although In the late ‘88 Russia had announced that the Bushehr nuclear plant would be launched in the spring of 1389, Vladimir Putin, the Russian Prime Minister, in the spring of 89, announced that the Bushehr reactor would be launched for peaceful purposes in the late summer of  ‘89.

Despite this, due to problems that once again arose, launching the plant was delayed. The cause of the postponement was the Stuxnet worm virus, and then it was announced that due to other technical reasons, it had been postponed yet again.

Based on the evaluation of many experts, relations between Iran and Russia are related to the relations between Russia and the U.S. In other words, the relations between the US and Russia in recent years have had a negative effect on the relations between Iran and Russia. Dmitry Medvedev’s strategy in those years was to revive the relations with US. The US was also interested in the relations, and Obama has taken major steps in that regard.

Many experts argue that the reconstruction of Russia-US relations have had negative effects on the relations between Iran and Russia, and consider the events that occurred in the past two years as their symptoms. Although the influence of the relations between Russia and US over Iran’s relations with Russia cannot be ignored, I think it should be noted that Russia has treated Iran with open hands.

Since there was a one-sided need by Iran of Russia, the Russians acted with open hands and formed their behavior toward Iran in the last two years. Those open hands mean that they did anything they liked. Namely, Russia’s strategy against Iran was adopted at the moment. It is not that the Russians have a long or medium term strategy on relations with Iran, but circumstances decide what attitude they will have with Iran.

Thus, anytime they want, they can sign or cancel contracts, and the Russians see no obstacles in their relations with Iran; whether legal, political or normative. Hence, they decide on issues at the moment. It can be said that relations between Iran and Russia in ‘89 were actually quite clear.

Due to the fact that the Russians act at the moment, according to the context, bilateral relations cannot be claimed to be able to be improved or worsened in 1390. However, the changes that occurred and are happening in the Middle East, and the governments formed in those countries, are factors that can affect the relations between Russia and the US on the one hand, and those between Russia and Iran on the other hand.

It is likely that by the fall of the West-oriented governments in the region, like Egypt and Tunisia, some conditions will prevail so that Russia will use its relations with Iran to have more influence in the Middle East. On the other hand, a situation can be considered where the Russians feel that if they pay more attention to Iran, Iran will act more freely in the region and more difficulties will arise for them in the future.

It is the future conditions that determine how Russia defines its own interests in connection with Iran at every moment and in how it acts. That view was a problem in bilateral relations and it does not seem that it will change in the future. Thus, with prospects of bilateral relations in 1390, it seems that Iran’s relations with Russia will not be so bad that they cause problems for both countries, and not so good so as to have stable relations between the two countries.

Regarding the issue of whether the Bushehr plant will finally be launched in the year ahead, as I mentioned before, fuel rods have entered into the heart of the plant but the Russians postpone launching as long as they can. But after the delivery of fuel rods, it seems that Russia can no longer postpone the launching with old excuses. Before, the Russians had mentioned economic and technical excuses that prevented completion of the Bushehr plant, which were somewhat acceptable. After a long period, the Russians were forced to take a step forward and deliver the fuel rods. In fact, the Russians will have delays in any processes of this project. It may take several years, depending on the process.

I think the technical discussions cannot take too long of a time. However excuses have already been made that the cooling engine had a problem or that the Stuxnet damage will last for a specific time, and eventually the Russians will be forced to complete the plant to retain any credibility. That said, they will delay it as long as is possible. So, it is my belief that in 1390, the Bushehr plant will be launched, and the electricity generated will be used.