Compassionate Vote?

18 August 2010 | 19:08 Code : 7843 General category

Why did Russia support the fourth sanction resolution against Iran? By Bahram Amir Ahmadian.

“Moscow and Beijing’s vote in favor of the fourth sanction resolution against Iran was out of compassion. They wanted to avert a bigger threat against Iran.” Although later denied, these comments quoted from Iran’s foreign ministry officials in a joint meeting with MPs sparked off controversy. Collated with Moscow’s refusal to deliver S300 air defense systems and its opposition to Iran’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, they truly words sound ironic.

Bahram Amir-Ahmadian, Russian affairs analyst commented on the issue for Iranian Diplomacy:

Fact One: Moscow has tried to alleviate the four UNSC sanction resolutions issued against Iran’s nuclear program. Fact Two: Iran holds only a one-percent share of Russia’s foreign trade exchange. Conclusion: Iran should not repose excessive trust in Moscow.

Within the recent years –particularly since Medvedev’s rise to presidency- Moscow has moved closer to West. Within this context, one can give better meaning to Kremlin’s refusal to deliver the advanced S300 air defense systems for which Iran has paid in advance. The post-resolution international atmosphere can also explain Russians’ hesitation.

Two days after UNSC adopted the fourth sanction resolution against Iran, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov denied Iran’s full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). There is little for Iran to lament over rejection of full-membership nevertheless. Unlike what some diplomatic observers in Iran believe, Shanghai Cooperation Organization cannot serves as a regional rival to NATO. The pillars of this organization, namely China and Russia, have extensive trade ties with the West which stops them from turning the organization into a NATO nemesis. Moreover, SCO’s key foci are economy and security affairs, with an eye on the developments in Central Asia. Whatever Iran aims to gain in this region can be gained even without promotion from an observer status to full-membership. Iran’s full membership in SCO could also fall at odds with its commitments to the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM).

More complicated than ever, Tehran-Moscow ties have now transformed into a multi-variable equation, each party looking at it –and trying to solve it- via a different method. Iran could nevertheless eliminate Russia from the equation if it ameliorates relations with West. Obviously, as long as it can take advantage of strained relations, Kremlin will counter efforts for amelioration of ties between Iran and West.

In its quest for a developed status, Iran needs to import modern technology. While West refuses to supply Iran with advanced know-how, Russians appear as the generous ones. In aerospace industry, ballistic missiles and other military technologies, Iran has received Moscow’s aid.

Nevertheless, ‘national forces’ are Iran’s best supporters on the diplomatic stage. Like any other country, Russia supports Iran as long as its own interests are served. It may be too late, but Tehran should finally learn the oft-quoted saying that in diplomacy, a nation doesn’t have permanent friends or enemies, but permanent interests. Rational –and not sentimental- diplomacy is what Tehran needs at the moment.