Mixed Blessings
China, Russia and ElBaradei’s reports and their impact on Iran’s nuclear program in an interview with Ali Khorram
Obama’s recent meetings with Russian and Chinese presidents and ElBaradei’s remarks have developed a new situation for Iran’s nuclear dossier. Iranian Diplomacy has interview Ali Khorram, foreign affairs analyst on the ramifications of the recent developments:
How could Russia and China’s recent supportive remarks for the United States bring solidarity to Five plus One?
Iran is not the only country Obama extended his hand to, Russia, China and even Venezuela are his target. When Iran rejects the gesture, it should await strategic changes. In the past, the United States’ domineering policies drove China and Russia to use cards such as Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, and North Korea… to flex their muscles against the Americans and show that they don’t want anyone to threaten their interests.
But with Obama, there is a new policy. Obama set up the initiative to cultivate relations with Russia and China. So at such a situation, there is no need for China and Russia to use Iran as leverage against Washington. This time they use it for Washington and in order to strengthen their partnership. More is to come by Russia and China to wield the Iran card in order to appease the United States. Thus, Russia and China’s support for Iran is waning as they’re getting closer to the United States.
China and Russia had collaborated with the United States for the last three UN sanction resolutions against Iran. What makes it different this time?
It is true that they voted in favor of the sanctions, but they resisted until the last moment and tried to soften the tone of the resolutions. But there is no such guarantee at the present and these two countries may even propose further sanctions against Iran, as Medvedev’s recent remarks after his meeting with Putin demonstrate.
The new mode of affairs between Russia and the United States seems to have been the cause of another delay in running the Russia-constructed Bushehr nuclear power plant. Do you have the same idea?
Naturally Russia officials deny any connections between the delay and diplomatic developments. But the link is crystal clear. If it comes as a surprise for some inside Iran, that is because of their unfamiliarity with politics of the modern world. Every country is pursuing its own interests, using others as a card in order to achieve their goals. It is us that think Russia and China support us unconditionally. Clearly they have changing priorities in a changing world.
We can’t blame Russians or Chinese. At times their interests necessitate supporting Iran against Bush’s policies, while at another time they require using the Iran card to approach the Americans. We should be more careful about that.
How do you see ElBaradei’s latest report? How can it facilitate a consensus among Five plus One? It is also said that IAEA chief has had a secret meeting with Iranian officials.
The report had his trademark equivocality. Some parts of the report, for instance the possibility that Iran may have other unrevealed nuclear sites similar to Fordo, have provided some Five plus One members with an opportunity to advance their anti-Iran campaign in UN Security Council. This section of the report was so meaningful in my opinion.
Meanwhile, ElBaradei insists that Iran has not provided thorough, full responses to IAEA’s questions. This is another chance for UNSC and Five plus One to exert further pressure on Iran. Our nuclear officials may want to think of ElBaradei’s reports as ever-positive. That is their call. But ElBaradei’s reports have always tries to please Iran, while giving the opponents another chance to constrict Iran’s nuclear program.
How could Russia and China’s recent supportive remarks for the United States bring solidarity to Five plus One?
Iran is not the only country Obama extended his hand to, Russia, China and even Venezuela are his target. When Iran rejects the gesture, it should await strategic changes. In the past, the United States’ domineering policies drove China and Russia to use cards such as Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, and North Korea… to flex their muscles against the Americans and show that they don’t want anyone to threaten their interests.
But with Obama, there is a new policy. Obama set up the initiative to cultivate relations with Russia and China. So at such a situation, there is no need for China and Russia to use Iran as leverage against Washington. This time they use it for Washington and in order to strengthen their partnership. More is to come by Russia and China to wield the Iran card in order to appease the United States. Thus, Russia and China’s support for Iran is waning as they’re getting closer to the United States.
China and Russia had collaborated with the United States for the last three UN sanction resolutions against Iran. What makes it different this time?
It is true that they voted in favor of the sanctions, but they resisted until the last moment and tried to soften the tone of the resolutions. But there is no such guarantee at the present and these two countries may even propose further sanctions against Iran, as Medvedev’s recent remarks after his meeting with Putin demonstrate.
The new mode of affairs between Russia and the United States seems to have been the cause of another delay in running the Russia-constructed Bushehr nuclear power plant. Do you have the same idea?
Naturally Russia officials deny any connections between the delay and diplomatic developments. But the link is crystal clear. If it comes as a surprise for some inside Iran, that is because of their unfamiliarity with politics of the modern world. Every country is pursuing its own interests, using others as a card in order to achieve their goals. It is us that think Russia and China support us unconditionally. Clearly they have changing priorities in a changing world.
We can’t blame Russians or Chinese. At times their interests necessitate supporting Iran against Bush’s policies, while at another time they require using the Iran card to approach the Americans. We should be more careful about that.
How do you see ElBaradei’s latest report? How can it facilitate a consensus among Five plus One? It is also said that IAEA chief has had a secret meeting with Iranian officials.
The report had his trademark equivocality. Some parts of the report, for instance the possibility that Iran may have other unrevealed nuclear sites similar to Fordo, have provided some Five plus One members with an opportunity to advance their anti-Iran campaign in UN Security Council. This section of the report was so meaningful in my opinion.
Meanwhile, ElBaradei insists that Iran has not provided thorough, full responses to IAEA’s questions. This is another chance for UNSC and Five plus One to exert further pressure on Iran. Our nuclear officials may want to think of ElBaradei’s reports as ever-positive. That is their call. But ElBaradei’s reports have always tries to please Iran, while giving the opponents another chance to constrict Iran’s nuclear program.