Tehran and Cairo. Friends after Thirty Years?
Commentary by Dr. Morteza Musavi Khalkhali, Arab affairs analyst
In a meeting with the new head of the Egyptian interest section in Tehran Aleddin Hassan-Youssef, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said that Tehran-Cairo consultations are fruitful for regional states. Mottaki also invited his Egyptian counterpart Ahmed Aboul-Gheit to visit Tehran. Dr. Morteza Musavi Khalkhali, Arab affairs analyst tells Iranian Diplomacy about the prospect of Iran-Egypt relations:
No one can deny the role of Iran and Egypt as two major Muslim countries and key members of the Non-Alignment Movement. Up to a month ago, Egypt seemed hesitant to normalize ties with Iran. Nevertheless, regional circumstances, especially Iran’s influence in Iraq and Afghanistan and the specter of a united front formed by Iran, Turkey, Syria and Iraq has worried Egypt about losing its regional power.
Two political entities currently having troubles with Iran, i.e. Europe and Saudi Arabia, naturally grimace over the idea of Tehran and Cairo having normal ties. However, Egypt is intent to end up the thirty-year freeze. Even strategic Cairo-Washington bonds can’t stop Egypt from approaching Iran, since this once leader of the Arab world prioritizes national interests. Meanwhile, the Americans may have tacitly approved of Egypt moving in the normalization path.
But influential on Tehran-Cairo ties are Tehran-Riyadh relations. Possible resumption of relations between Tehran and Cairo and Tehran and Washington are grave concerns for the Saudi Arabians and potential threat to their national interests.
Iran is the spiritual leader of Muslim Shiites, whether they are Houthis fighting against the central Yemeni government near Saudi Arabian borders, the religious majority ruling Iraq or the minority dwelling in Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich eastern territory. There is a natural threat against Saudi Arabia’s traditional influence in the region with Iran’s diplomatic proceedings. Nevertheless, if the Saudis fail to reconstruct their relations with Iran sooner or later, the Egyptians are more than happy to take their place and end the thirty-year freeze.
As I mentioned before, the Egyptians are conspicuously worried with a possible quadrilateral alliance between Iran, Turkey, Syria and Iraq. Their consequent decision to improve ties with Tehran may encourage the Saudis to do the same.
All in all, the regional circumstances are in favor of Iran. The quadrilateral front has apparently been more than a normal threat for the Saudis and Egyptians, impelling them to reconstruct their relations with Iran. So far, like many other Arab countries, Egypt has disfavored the prospect of a possible Tehran-Washington rapprochement, but if Cairo expresses its readiness to resume relations with Iran, the United States’ intention to thaw the freeze in relatins with Iran may face less intense oppositions in the Arab World.
No one can deny the role of Iran and Egypt as two major Muslim countries and key members of the Non-Alignment Movement. Up to a month ago, Egypt seemed hesitant to normalize ties with Iran. Nevertheless, regional circumstances, especially Iran’s influence in Iraq and Afghanistan and the specter of a united front formed by Iran, Turkey, Syria and Iraq has worried Egypt about losing its regional power.
Two political entities currently having troubles with Iran, i.e. Europe and Saudi Arabia, naturally grimace over the idea of Tehran and Cairo having normal ties. However, Egypt is intent to end up the thirty-year freeze. Even strategic Cairo-Washington bonds can’t stop Egypt from approaching Iran, since this once leader of the Arab world prioritizes national interests. Meanwhile, the Americans may have tacitly approved of Egypt moving in the normalization path.
But influential on Tehran-Cairo ties are Tehran-Riyadh relations. Possible resumption of relations between Tehran and Cairo and Tehran and Washington are grave concerns for the Saudi Arabians and potential threat to their national interests.
Iran is the spiritual leader of Muslim Shiites, whether they are Houthis fighting against the central Yemeni government near Saudi Arabian borders, the religious majority ruling Iraq or the minority dwelling in Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich eastern territory. There is a natural threat against Saudi Arabia’s traditional influence in the region with Iran’s diplomatic proceedings. Nevertheless, if the Saudis fail to reconstruct their relations with Iran sooner or later, the Egyptians are more than happy to take their place and end the thirty-year freeze.
As I mentioned before, the Egyptians are conspicuously worried with a possible quadrilateral alliance between Iran, Turkey, Syria and Iraq. Their consequent decision to improve ties with Tehran may encourage the Saudis to do the same.
All in all, the regional circumstances are in favor of Iran. The quadrilateral front has apparently been more than a normal threat for the Saudis and Egyptians, impelling them to reconstruct their relations with Iran. So far, like many other Arab countries, Egypt has disfavored the prospect of a possible Tehran-Washington rapprochement, but if Cairo expresses its readiness to resume relations with Iran, the United States’ intention to thaw the freeze in relatins with Iran may face less intense oppositions in the Arab World.