Iran Has No Interests in Strained Relations
Interview with Hassan Beheshtipour, Caucasian affairs analyst. On Turkey-Armenia reconciliation and tensions between Azerbaijan and Turkey
Azerbaijan-Turkey relations went downhill the moment Turkey and Armenia put normalization of ties on their agenda. The frowning Azerbaijanis are trying to show their discontent to Turks in any way possible. The Turks, however, continued negotiations with the Armenians but to soothe their endeared neighbor, Turkish FM Ahmad Davutoglu said that at any situation, Azerbaijan’s interests are Turkey’s interests. Iranian Diplomacy has interviewed Hassan Beheshtipour, Caucasian affairs analyst:
The Turkish foreign minister says that Azerbaijan’s interests are Turkey’s interests. How valid can that be in diplomatic affairs?
The Turkey-Armenia rapprochement has both vigorous opponents and proponents. The normalization, even if it does not lead to reopening Turkey-Armenia borders, jeopardizes Azerbaijan’s situation. It would give the upper hand to Armenia, which is currently in struggle with Turkey and Azerbaijan on east and Georgia and South Ossetia on northeast. Iran has been Armenia’s only breathing space for long, and normalized Turkey-Armenia relations would give the Armenians further maneuverability. As long as the Nagorno-Karabakh issue remains unsolved, Azerbaijan will oppose the reconciliation.
Of course, the Azerbaijanis are not entitled to such expectations from Turkey since they had the chance to solve the problem long ago. The Nagorno-Karabakh dispute started in 1988 and culminated in 1991 with Armenians occupying 20% of Azerbaijan’s territory. Azeris could resolve the issue at that time but now they are asking the Turks to do it for them. Davutoglu’s comments are just diplomatic lip service. No country, including Turkey, prioritizes other nations’ interests.
How could strained Turkey-Azerbaijan relations affect Iran?
The relations are not strained, they have just become lukewarm. Mutual ties of these countries could never have an impact on a great country like Iran. Our interests lie in close ties between our neighbors; stormy relations will do it no good. They would just pave the way for the presence of extraregional actors.
What should Iran’s reaction be?
First, we should come out of the world of fantasies and step into the real one. It is just a mirage if we think that Turkey-Armenia rapprochement would bring Azerbaijan closer to Iran. We should seek warm ties between these countries. We should find out what serves our national interests, that is, the interests of the majority of Iranians.
Does intermediation between Turkey and Azerbaijan serve Iran’s interests?
That should be requested by all involved parties. May be Turkey and Azerbaijan do not need a broker. True it is that a serious conflict has occurred, but Iran’s intermediation cannot really improve the situation. A phone conversation between Iranian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers may be a good preliminary move. If our northern neighbor demands for Iran’s mediation, then it is time to step in. But as I said, Turkey-Azerbaijan relations have not turned that strained, so they do not need any mediators.
With a likely reconciliation with Turkey, could Armenia become less willing to strengthen its ties with Iran?
This is a more fundamental question. Iran and Armenia enjoy crucial mutual ties. Friendship with Armenia is critical for Iran’s international maneuverability. Iran’s influence in Caucasia and Armenia’s need to access Persian Gulf waters cement this relation. We should consider that Armenia has problems with nearly all its other neighbors.
While condemning both the Armenian genocide of early 20th century and the occupation of Azerbaijan’s territory, Iran has kept up warm ties with Armenia. The normalization of ties between Turkey and Armenia is both an opportunity and a threat for Iran. It may reinforce bilateral ties with the latter or it could mean Armenia’s move towards Turkey, hence less economic exchanges.
How do you predict the normalization process?
It will be lengthy. There is opposition not only in the Republic of Azerbaijan but also in Turkey. 1915-1918 massacres of the Ottoman era should be investigated. There are also opponents in Armenia. So it will not be a piece of cake. Azerbaijan’s opposition, however, may falter. We should wait and see if Turkey aims to discuss Nagorno-Karabakh in the negotiations. Armenia should also demonstrate its good will. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan would not remain silent as long as its territory is occupied by Armenia.
And the last question. What is Turkey seeking in normalization of ties with Armenia?
Turks have two objectives. First is paving the way for joining the European Union via normalization. Both the Armenian and Cypriot issues have been stumbling blocks for Turkey and the Christian identity of EU has made its members sensitive towards these two issues. Second is access to energy sources. Compared with Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia are better routes for Turkey, much cheaper and easier. Third, is getting into Armenia’s market. Turkey’s presence in this market is semi-official right now, but normalization would give Turkey a chance to secure its foothold, also in other parts of Caucasia such as Georgia where Armenians’ influence is not as strong.
The Turkish foreign minister says that Azerbaijan’s interests are Turkey’s interests. How valid can that be in diplomatic affairs?
The Turkey-Armenia rapprochement has both vigorous opponents and proponents. The normalization, even if it does not lead to reopening Turkey-Armenia borders, jeopardizes Azerbaijan’s situation. It would give the upper hand to Armenia, which is currently in struggle with Turkey and Azerbaijan on east and Georgia and South Ossetia on northeast. Iran has been Armenia’s only breathing space for long, and normalized Turkey-Armenia relations would give the Armenians further maneuverability. As long as the Nagorno-Karabakh issue remains unsolved, Azerbaijan will oppose the reconciliation.
Of course, the Azerbaijanis are not entitled to such expectations from Turkey since they had the chance to solve the problem long ago. The Nagorno-Karabakh dispute started in 1988 and culminated in 1991 with Armenians occupying 20% of Azerbaijan’s territory. Azeris could resolve the issue at that time but now they are asking the Turks to do it for them. Davutoglu’s comments are just diplomatic lip service. No country, including Turkey, prioritizes other nations’ interests.
How could strained Turkey-Azerbaijan relations affect Iran?
The relations are not strained, they have just become lukewarm. Mutual ties of these countries could never have an impact on a great country like Iran. Our interests lie in close ties between our neighbors; stormy relations will do it no good. They would just pave the way for the presence of extraregional actors.
What should Iran’s reaction be?
First, we should come out of the world of fantasies and step into the real one. It is just a mirage if we think that Turkey-Armenia rapprochement would bring Azerbaijan closer to Iran. We should seek warm ties between these countries. We should find out what serves our national interests, that is, the interests of the majority of Iranians.
Does intermediation between Turkey and Azerbaijan serve Iran’s interests?
That should be requested by all involved parties. May be Turkey and Azerbaijan do not need a broker. True it is that a serious conflict has occurred, but Iran’s intermediation cannot really improve the situation. A phone conversation between Iranian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers may be a good preliminary move. If our northern neighbor demands for Iran’s mediation, then it is time to step in. But as I said, Turkey-Azerbaijan relations have not turned that strained, so they do not need any mediators.
With a likely reconciliation with Turkey, could Armenia become less willing to strengthen its ties with Iran?
This is a more fundamental question. Iran and Armenia enjoy crucial mutual ties. Friendship with Armenia is critical for Iran’s international maneuverability. Iran’s influence in Caucasia and Armenia’s need to access Persian Gulf waters cement this relation. We should consider that Armenia has problems with nearly all its other neighbors.
While condemning both the Armenian genocide of early 20th century and the occupation of Azerbaijan’s territory, Iran has kept up warm ties with Armenia. The normalization of ties between Turkey and Armenia is both an opportunity and a threat for Iran. It may reinforce bilateral ties with the latter or it could mean Armenia’s move towards Turkey, hence less economic exchanges.
How do you predict the normalization process?
It will be lengthy. There is opposition not only in the Republic of Azerbaijan but also in Turkey. 1915-1918 massacres of the Ottoman era should be investigated. There are also opponents in Armenia. So it will not be a piece of cake. Azerbaijan’s opposition, however, may falter. We should wait and see if Turkey aims to discuss Nagorno-Karabakh in the negotiations. Armenia should also demonstrate its good will. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan would not remain silent as long as its territory is occupied by Armenia.
And the last question. What is Turkey seeking in normalization of ties with Armenia?
Turks have two objectives. First is paving the way for joining the European Union via normalization. Both the Armenian and Cypriot issues have been stumbling blocks for Turkey and the Christian identity of EU has made its members sensitive towards these two issues. Second is access to energy sources. Compared with Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia are better routes for Turkey, much cheaper and easier. Third, is getting into Armenia’s market. Turkey’s presence in this market is semi-official right now, but normalization would give Turkey a chance to secure its foothold, also in other parts of Caucasia such as Georgia where Armenians’ influence is not as strong.