The Incomplete Test of Democracy
Voter bases and manipulations in the presidential election of Afghanistan. By Houman Dolati
Let me start with a personal definition of election: I believe that election is an emotional norm, especially in societies with new-born democracy. The latest instance of this emotional norm occurred in Iran. A massive turnout took place in order to send a certain candidate to the presidential house.
The quality of election in Afghanistan was not the same however. The problems in the electoral procedure significantly decreased the number of participants and turned the presidential poll into an incomplete practice of democracy. This phenomenon calls for an analysis. With the course of events, a runoff had to be held.
The second round of election may shake the mentality of those who looked at Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah as West puppets. These people will admit that they are the ones deciding Afghanistan’s destiny. I believe that the spread of this belief will help a larger participation in the runoff. However, this is not the sufficient condition. The Afghan society calls for its own solution and is not comparable to any other society.
The present generations of Afghanistan have experience utter suffering. Ethnocentrism and adherence to the verdict of tribal leaders is still a constituent of Afghans’ decision-making mental mechanism. However, the runoff will facilitate the road to a democracy that is similar to successful international instances.
In my opinion, Karzai is the certain winner of the second round, and he may even a massive vote. If he managed to gain an initial 55% of votes in the first round, which went below the required fifty percent after a recount, in the runoff he will mincemeat Abdullah Abdullah. The voter base of Dr. Abdullah, that is, the Tajik community, has fully supported him and his votes cannot go higher.
It was much better if Abdullah Abdullah, a modern democrat indeed whose mindset is different from the mainstream mentality of Afghan society, accepted the result of election and prepared himself for the next presidential competition. Facts and figures show a 20% margin between his votes and that of Hamed Karzai; and that vote-gap is when the pro-Karzai Pashtun-dominated southern parts of Afghanistan showed a low turnout while the highest rate of participation was seen in northern provinces such as Badakhshan or Panjshir, the traditional powerbase of Mujahedeen and Abdullah.
The runoff participation rate will not be different from the first round, that is, a figure around fifty percent. Even with an optimistic attitude the rate will not increase in future elections. The votes Abdullah Abdullah gained in this election demonstrated his full potential, unlike Karzai who deserved more votes in the first round. Four million will be the likely number of votes for Karzai in the next round, with Bashardust’s votes going to Karzai’s basket.
There are various types of violation in the electoral procedure. One is governmental which is not negligible at all. No democratic, free-thinking mind would accept the manipulation of votes by those who are responsible for administering and monitoring the poll. Another type of violation I tend to call tribal. In that case, tribal leaders urge people to vote for a certain candidate. Not only Karzai’s, but also Abdullah and Ahmadzai’s votes were tainted by this kind of violation. But we saw that the commission in charge of investigating the complaints dealing with these violations with rationality and through accurate statistical methods.
The quality of election in Afghanistan was not the same however. The problems in the electoral procedure significantly decreased the number of participants and turned the presidential poll into an incomplete practice of democracy. This phenomenon calls for an analysis. With the course of events, a runoff had to be held.
The second round of election may shake the mentality of those who looked at Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah as West puppets. These people will admit that they are the ones deciding Afghanistan’s destiny. I believe that the spread of this belief will help a larger participation in the runoff. However, this is not the sufficient condition. The Afghan society calls for its own solution and is not comparable to any other society.
The present generations of Afghanistan have experience utter suffering. Ethnocentrism and adherence to the verdict of tribal leaders is still a constituent of Afghans’ decision-making mental mechanism. However, the runoff will facilitate the road to a democracy that is similar to successful international instances.
In my opinion, Karzai is the certain winner of the second round, and he may even a massive vote. If he managed to gain an initial 55% of votes in the first round, which went below the required fifty percent after a recount, in the runoff he will mincemeat Abdullah Abdullah. The voter base of Dr. Abdullah, that is, the Tajik community, has fully supported him and his votes cannot go higher.
It was much better if Abdullah Abdullah, a modern democrat indeed whose mindset is different from the mainstream mentality of Afghan society, accepted the result of election and prepared himself for the next presidential competition. Facts and figures show a 20% margin between his votes and that of Hamed Karzai; and that vote-gap is when the pro-Karzai Pashtun-dominated southern parts of Afghanistan showed a low turnout while the highest rate of participation was seen in northern provinces such as Badakhshan or Panjshir, the traditional powerbase of Mujahedeen and Abdullah.
The runoff participation rate will not be different from the first round, that is, a figure around fifty percent. Even with an optimistic attitude the rate will not increase in future elections. The votes Abdullah Abdullah gained in this election demonstrated his full potential, unlike Karzai who deserved more votes in the first round. Four million will be the likely number of votes for Karzai in the next round, with Bashardust’s votes going to Karzai’s basket.
There are various types of violation in the electoral procedure. One is governmental which is not negligible at all. No democratic, free-thinking mind would accept the manipulation of votes by those who are responsible for administering and monitoring the poll. Another type of violation I tend to call tribal. In that case, tribal leaders urge people to vote for a certain candidate. Not only Karzai’s, but also Abdullah and Ahmadzai’s votes were tainted by this kind of violation. But we saw that the commission in charge of investigating the complaints dealing with these violations with rationality and through accurate statistical methods.