Anything Else In Your Sleeve?
A second uranium enrichment facility was Iran’s trump card a few days before nuclear talks with Five plus One. But is Iran out of stunts?
Iranian diplomacy: Holding Iran-West talks in Istanbul would give Iran the upper hand in negotiations some Iranian political observers believed, due to the geographical proximity of Turkey to Iran.
Using their algorithm, we can argue that when Javier Solana announced Geneva as the host of Five plus One’s next round of talks on Iran’s nuclear program, it meant that Europe will be further parted from Iran and closer to the United States. Nevertheless, such an argument is neither rational nor adequate to conjecture the proceeding of October 1st talks. What makes impasse a more plausible outcome is that part of Solana’s remarks that seemed to be uttered from a confident stance: freeze for freeze.
While Europe and the United States have already defined their nuclear solution, Iran is still at square one and insists that the first of October negotiations should not be about its nuclear program.
History of the parleys between Iran and Five plus One fails to picture an upbeat image. Dialogue takes place when two sides agree to discuss a common issue. Otherwise, in a situation where every party talks about what it preferred topic, it would pretty much like two deaf people talking to each other.
Aware of this fact, the United States and Europe have not limited themselves to the October negotiations with Iran. Rapprochement with Russia, showing more flexibility towards Iran (on the controversial elections and three detained Americans etc.) and not supporting Israel’s hawkish policies against Tehran are just some of the tactics employed to build a more reliable consensus vis-à-vis Tehran.
EU High Representative for the Common Foreign & Security Policy Javier Solana has asserted that Five plus One is committed to solving Iran’s case and the group remains united on this issue. Chief European negotiator also added that if Tehran failed to freeze its uranium enrichment program, Russia and China would not oppose tougher economic sanctions. With the latest news coming from Tehran-Qom highway and Iran’s second uranium enrichment facility, Russia and China seem to be out of excuses to block sanctions against Iran.
The groundwork laid for united action against Iran has emboldened Solana to talk of approval of Russia and China, the two countries benefitting economic ties with Tehran, (thus) constantly opposing direct confrontation and calling for constructive dialogue. Iran’s supporters now seem to be ready to cooperate with other members of Iran Six Group.
At such a circumstance, we should wait to see how Iran carries on the game until the October talks and what it does to maintain the rift between six world powers. After paying a heavy price in both domestic and international arena, it is unlikely that Tehran accepts moratorium on uranium enrichment. The latest news on Qom facility was a blow to West and has rendered it staggered and angry.
Regional issues (Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan) are expected to be Tehran’s pro quos in the negotiations. Cooperation in solving these regional problems may convince West to withdraw its stance on the nuclear issue. Iran’s nuclear package with the broad issues it addressed was an attempt to open new fronts in negotiations. This is exactly opposed to West’s viewpoint that considers Iran’s nuclear program as the essence of talks. However, what we see is another nail in the coffin of reconciliation between Tehran and West, and another step towards more stringent sanctions; unless Tehran has saved its powers for the last week to gain height and shock Five plus One before the parley.
Announcing the existence of a second uranium enrichment facility near Qom is Tehran’s trump on the threshold of talks with Five plus One. West has not yet responded to it in an effective way. The question is: was the Qom enrichment site Iran’s last card before the historic face-off or the Islamic Republic has still got something up its sleeve? A few days have remained to the first of October and all signs indicate an all-out confrontation. Wouldn’t China –Iran’s oil partner that has strangely dominated Iran’s market during the past months- bail Iran out? Is Iran ready to take one step back? Or West will accept a low-level nuclearized Iran?
Using their algorithm, we can argue that when Javier Solana announced Geneva as the host of Five plus One’s next round of talks on Iran’s nuclear program, it meant that Europe will be further parted from Iran and closer to the United States. Nevertheless, such an argument is neither rational nor adequate to conjecture the proceeding of October 1st talks. What makes impasse a more plausible outcome is that part of Solana’s remarks that seemed to be uttered from a confident stance: freeze for freeze.
While Europe and the United States have already defined their nuclear solution, Iran is still at square one and insists that the first of October negotiations should not be about its nuclear program.
History of the parleys between Iran and Five plus One fails to picture an upbeat image. Dialogue takes place when two sides agree to discuss a common issue. Otherwise, in a situation where every party talks about what it preferred topic, it would pretty much like two deaf people talking to each other.
Aware of this fact, the United States and Europe have not limited themselves to the October negotiations with Iran. Rapprochement with Russia, showing more flexibility towards Iran (on the controversial elections and three detained Americans etc.) and not supporting Israel’s hawkish policies against Tehran are just some of the tactics employed to build a more reliable consensus vis-à-vis Tehran.
EU High Representative for the Common Foreign & Security Policy Javier Solana has asserted that Five plus One is committed to solving Iran’s case and the group remains united on this issue. Chief European negotiator also added that if Tehran failed to freeze its uranium enrichment program, Russia and China would not oppose tougher economic sanctions. With the latest news coming from Tehran-Qom highway and Iran’s second uranium enrichment facility, Russia and China seem to be out of excuses to block sanctions against Iran.
The groundwork laid for united action against Iran has emboldened Solana to talk of approval of Russia and China, the two countries benefitting economic ties with Tehran, (thus) constantly opposing direct confrontation and calling for constructive dialogue. Iran’s supporters now seem to be ready to cooperate with other members of Iran Six Group.
At such a circumstance, we should wait to see how Iran carries on the game until the October talks and what it does to maintain the rift between six world powers. After paying a heavy price in both domestic and international arena, it is unlikely that Tehran accepts moratorium on uranium enrichment. The latest news on Qom facility was a blow to West and has rendered it staggered and angry.
Regional issues (Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan) are expected to be Tehran’s pro quos in the negotiations. Cooperation in solving these regional problems may convince West to withdraw its stance on the nuclear issue. Iran’s nuclear package with the broad issues it addressed was an attempt to open new fronts in negotiations. This is exactly opposed to West’s viewpoint that considers Iran’s nuclear program as the essence of talks. However, what we see is another nail in the coffin of reconciliation between Tehran and West, and another step towards more stringent sanctions; unless Tehran has saved its powers for the last week to gain height and shock Five plus One before the parley.
Announcing the existence of a second uranium enrichment facility near Qom is Tehran’s trump on the threshold of talks with Five plus One. West has not yet responded to it in an effective way. The question is: was the Qom enrichment site Iran’s last card before the historic face-off or the Islamic Republic has still got something up its sleeve? A few days have remained to the first of October and all signs indicate an all-out confrontation. Wouldn’t China –Iran’s oil partner that has strangely dominated Iran’s market during the past months- bail Iran out? Is Iran ready to take one step back? Or West will accept a low-level nuclearized Iran?