Iran Remains Extraordinary
On the days before the elections I said that the tenth presidential election will be influential in Iran’s foreign diplomacy and international decisions, and can determine the future of our nation. Whatever the real results of the election, Iranians have entered a new era, and the world has known how to treat Iran, the Middle East cat. However, the presidential elections contain mysteries which have occupied every analyst with their decoding.
Probably Arab countries of the Persian Gulf were most concerned about Iran’s domestic developments. Never have they liked their big northern neighbor to get peevish, fall at odds with its citizens and the world, and turn into a potential threat while it is already a regional power. Iran is not a threat for its neighbors with Ahmadinejad’s second term as president, nor would the presidency of another candidate bring peace of mind to Iran’s neighbors and the world. Most important of all are the doubts and mysteries raised with the elections and obscured Iran’s true profile from the world.
Robert Gibbs, White House spokesman, believes that Iranians’ demonstrations are a "ferment of productive change", that we are “witnessing something extraordinary. I think you’re witnessing something that many people might not have presumed or imagined … even a few weeks or a few days ago.” But more interesting are comments by Ian Kelly, State Department spokesman on 24th of June. Read his remarks to know how an American diplomat views Iran’s status quo (from U.S. State Department weblog):
QUESTION: -- and the Chinese and the Russian, she spoke with all the members of the P-5+1, do you plan any new sanction against Iran or any P-5+1 meeting?
MR. KELLY: Well, as far as the P-5+1 is concerned, of course, you know that Javier Solana sent out an invitation. We, of course, are waiting for an answer to that invitation, and we haven’t --
QUESTION: But you could meet without --
MR. KELLY: We haven’t received --
QUESTION: You could meet without them. You don’t – you have met several times without the Iranians.
MR. KELLY: Mm-hmm. As a matter of fact, well, there will be multilateral meetings in both Trieste and Corfu, and I’m sure we’ll discuss the issue of Iran there.
QUESTION: But the international meeting we heard about is not with the Russian and the Chinese. Apparently, they are not going to participate. So that’s why I’m curious to know.
MR. KELLY: Yeah. I’m not aware of a set P-5+1 meeting that’s planned. As I say, though, we are talking to them bilaterally, and of course, we talk to them multilaterally at the UN.
QUESTION: Ian, you just used the word, “evolving,” that the situation in Iran is evolving, which speaks of evolution. What do you observe to be the evolution of the situation in Iran?
MR. KELLY: Well, as you heard the President say yesterday, we don’t want to comment terribly much on the way that the political situation is evolving in Iran. What we’re seeing is very dramatic developments on the streets. We’re seeing the Iranian people who want their voices to be respected. We’re seeing these kinds of events happen every day.
QUESTION: Are you seeing the protests ebbing?
MR. KELLY: Am I seeing them ebbing?
QUESTION: Yeah.
MR. KELLY: I wouldn’t say that they’re ebbing, no.
QUESTION: Would you say that they’re – would you --
QUESTION: Did you see the renewed crackdown today on the street?
QUESTION: Excuse me. Would you say that they’re cresting?
MR. KELLY: I wouldn’t say that they’re cresting either.
QUESTION: So what is it that you – if you wouldn’t see that they’re ebbing, you see that they have maintained the same? Is that your observation?
MR. KELLY: No, I’m not going to pronounce how exactly that the situation – I’m not going to make a value judgment on whether or not they’re ebbing or cresting.
QUESTION: I’m not asking for a value judgment on – I’m asking for crowds and just assessments of whether or not the protests are – seem to be continuing at the same scale, scope, size, geographic location, and so forth.
MR. KELLY: Yeah. Well, we – as we’ve said on many occasions, and the President’s said too, we are hamstrung by the fact that the Iranian authorities have closed down the internet, have asked foreign journalists to leave. It is difficult for us to get good, control information on what happened.
QUESTION: So how can you say that they’re not ebbing?
MR. KELLY: I can’t say that they’re ebbing, I can’t say that they’re cresting. I don’t know that it’s necessarily productive for me to say one way or other to you, frankly.
QUESTION: Are you aware of the renewed crackdown or increased crackdown today on the streets of Tehran?
MR. KELLY: I’ve seen reports of it. I’ve seen reports of it on your network. And these reports, if they’re true, are absolutely appalling and deplorable. But again, it’s difficult for us to be able to confirm them.
Iran is still on the edge, even after the elections. On the brink of election, it could be said that we are standing at a turning point where elections could demonstrate the level of our development at the beginning of Islamic Republic’s fourth decade of life. But the election failed to do so and it did not mirror the reality of the Iranian society.
Exactly this issue, that is, the hidden face of Iran, is the world’s gravest concern. The rift among diplomats and among citizens has become widespread. Ultimately, the policies of the government are the basis of judgment for the world, but we can not overlook the reality that the view from outside on the Iranian society, and Iranian diplomacy, is fragmentary and rife with questions.
The election of either Ahmadinejad or another candidate was supposed to be meaningful. Even if Ahmadinejad and his allies put their foots down, marginalize their opponents and establish a homogeneous structure in Iran’s political stage, we should not forget that Iran’s political and social atmosphere has entered a new phase where developments will be unpredictable. The quality of elections and the intensity of protests will limit his maneuverability in foreign and domestic affairs.
Knowing about these facts, foreign powers will doubtfully look at the legitimacy of his government, and will use this weak point as a vantage. However, still they are facing an Iran they do not know, one which slips away from evaluation and prediction and as Gibbs has said is ’extraordinary’.
When Europe and the United States decided to postpone their relations and negotiations with Tehran to days after the elections, they believed that after the presidential poll, they will find out the true face of Iran. Three weeks after the elections, while we are approaching the inauguration, Iran is wearing more and more masks, again turning into a question mark for the world.