Arabs Fear a Return to 1970s

GCC’s declaration shows that Arab countries of the Persian Gulf have common demands when it comes to Iran-U.S. negotiations. What is your assessment?

Generally, the Arab world has been always worried about Iran for religious and political reasons. Now that would aggravate if Iran turns into a nuclear power. On the other hand, Iran and GCC have problems over the [Iranian] triple islands. Arabs may want the United States to put this issue forward in its talks with Iran. Other Arab countries such as Egypt and Syria have also supported GCC’s stance over this territorial dispute. Meanwhile, last Tuesday the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said that these islands belong to Iran forever.

On the other hand, Washington may ask Tehran to stop meddling in Arabs’ internal affairs, since Iran has powerful leverage inside Arab countries and that seriously concerns America.

In Egypt and Saudi Arabia, Robert Gates denied any secret grand bargain between Iran and the United States. Why do Arab states ever think of that possibility?

The biggest problem for Arabs is that United States may make a deal with Iran on problematic issues, such as accepting it as a nuclear state. With Iran’s increasing regional influence, Arabs may become sidelined and return to their 1970s status and the rule of Shah, when Iran was United States’ key regional ally.

If United States accepts a nuclear Iran –though countries like Morocco, Egypt and UAE have already joined the nuclear club-, the nightmare of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s reign will come back to Arabs and the regional equilibrium will tilt towards Iran.

It seems that with their visit American officials are trying to ensure Arabs that their relations with the United States will remain the same, even if Tehran and Washington reconcile. Wouldn’t that be paradoxical?

That’s an erroneous message they’ve sent. With Iran-U.S. rapprochement Washington will change its regional strategies. You saw that after 9/11 Americans left their bases in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia due to their support for terrorism and moved to Bahrain. Even some believed that Iraq was occupied to replace Emirates. So I believe that if Iran and United States get closer Arabs will definitely sustain a loss. Arabs are trying to receive guarantees to preclude this. Arabs basic demand is that Americans force Iran to stop interfering in their internal affairs. Egypt put that forward some while ago, since for Arabs ethnic identity is far more important than religious identity.

Arabs’ pressure on Iran and Iran-U.S. negotiations are more serious than ever. How should the next Iranian president tackle these two issues?

Ahmadinejad’s visit to Syria signals that Bashar Assad is transferring United States’ latest message to the Iranian president. Turkey was going to perform this role earlier, but Syria’s warm relations with Iran and their initiative to resume relations with the United States and Israel has made them a better candidate.

Ahmadinejad’s visit to Syria is an important one, and it seems that the Iranian president is trying to cover up his weakness in domestic scene by paving the way for establishing ties with America. United States knows that agreement with Ahmadinejad will turn him into a superstar. But there’s the question for Americans that isn’t any other Iranian statesman able to reestablish ties considering Iran’s domestic political circumstances?

I think that’s the dilemma Americans are facing, but my prediction is that they will reach an agreement with Ahmadinejad within the few months remained from his presidency.

Obama reiterated that he is ready to start unconditional talks with Iran a few days ago. So this means that they’ve understood Ahmadinejad is the man for this job. I guess that during the upcoming days –and even during Ahmadinejad’s visit to Syria- Iran and United States will set off negotiations. And don’t forget that Iranian and American delegations have had talks in Qatar recently.