The Significance of Provincial Elections in Iraq

Results of the provincial elections in Iraq, announced on Thursday by the Supreme Election Committee, reveal the new configuration of political actors and groups in Iraq and changes in their level of popularity and power:

1.      overall victory of religious Shiites and Islamist parties:

Notwithstanding a drop in Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) votes and the unpromising debut of National Reform Movement led by Ebrahim Ja’fari, the overall vote of moderate Shiites makes them the victorious bloc in Baghdad and the nine southern provinces. They have achieved near-absolute majority in Baghdad and absolute majority in southern provinces.

Religious groups including Maleki’s State of Law coalition, Sadr movement, Al-Mihrab Martyr List affiliated with SIIC, Ebrahim Ja’fari’s National Reform Movement and Fadila Party managed to gain 58% of the seats in Baghdad’s provincial council. Meanwhile, Sunni groups obtained 17.5 percent of votes in Baghdad, while Iraqi seculars’ list (Ayad Allawi) got 8 percent and Communists one percent of votes in the Iraqi capital. The results show that Shiite groups are in a better position before the 2009 parliamentary elections.

2.      Dawa Party’s rise due to Maleki’s popularity (Iraqis’ vote to stability and security):

Maleki’s list has secured the top rank in Baghdad and 9 other Shiite-dominated southern provinces. The State of Law coalition led by Maleki which included seven other parties gained 38 percent of votes in Baghdad and 37 percent of the votes in Basra.

Maleki’s Dawa Party was overshadowed by SIIC and Sadr movement prior to the elections. However, Maleki’s authoritative performance and his restoration of stability and security in Baghdad, Basra and some other Iraqi cities attracted votes, especially from Shiites. In fact, Maleki revived resurrected Dawa Party single-handedly and turned it from a moribund party into the leading political group in the elections.

3.      SIIC, significant drop in votes

The provincial election showed that SIIC, once the most important Shiite group, is now less welcomed by Iraqis. The party didn’t top the list in either in Baghdad or any of the nine Shiite-dominated southern provinces; not even in Najaf, hometown of the Hakims and their traditional powerbase.

Al-Mihrab Martyr list of Abdul-Aziz Hakim stood in the second position in five provinces and in the third position in two other. The smear campaign run by Arab media of the region and Abdul-Aziz Hakim’s ailment enervated the party. Although we can’t generalize the result of these elections to the upcoming parliamentary elections, SIIC should analyze the cause of its popularity loss in order to prevent a further plunge.

4.      Sadrists, the shelter for the poor and the anti-American:

Although the Sadr movement didn’t directly participate in the elections, its leaders endorsed two lists including the al-Ahrar bloc. These lists were among the top three in most Shiite regions and bolstered their position.

Habitually the Sadr movement obtained its votes from poor masses of Sadr City in Baghdad and impoverished provinces of south and once again introduced itself as the most radical anti-American Shiite group that asks for immediate withdrawal of American troops, though it has decreased emphasis on armed resistance.

5.      Ja’fari’s unpromising debut:

In spite of pre-election forecast, the National Reform movement lead by former PM Ebrahim Ja’fari was not the election surprise. Even though Ja’fari is a veteran politician known well among the Iraqi political elite, he hasn’t succeeded yet in running a powerful, organized movement that isn’t overshadowed by himself. During the elections, he had focused more on his own personality and background. Meanwhile, the Iraqi voters had experienced turmoil and insecurity during his premiership and despite his reputation in political circles, his efficiency is doubted.

6.      Overall weakness of seculars (including Allawi’s Iraqi National List)

Just like to two previous elections (first councils elections and parliamentary elections), this election showed that secular groups such as the Iraqi National List and communists lack a solid base among the Iraqi. It’s been a long while since the communists won an election in a country, but Americans and some Arab countries have invested hopes on secular Allawi since the fall of Saddam Hussein.

A former Baath member, Allawi is a symbol of secular Iraqis and was the first prime minister of Iraq appointed by Americans. However, elections in Iraq have shown the Americans attempt to marginalize religious Shiites is fruitless.

7.      a crack in al-Tawafuq Front’s solidarity and the return of pro-Baaths in al-Anbar:

The Sunni al-Tawafuq Front ranked first in Diyala and Salahuddin province gaining %21 and %14 of votes respectively. But it lost the result to its new rivals in two major Sunni-dominated provinces, i.e. Mosul and al-Anbar. Tariq al-Hashemi Islamic Party, the major party of al-Tawafuq Front held the third position in Mosul and obtained only %7.6 of votes in this province. It was also defeated by the pro-Baath group of Saleh al-Mutlaq in al-Anbar. The results show that while being the major political group among Sunnis, it has to anticipate new rivals. These are either the tribes who do not favor the Islamic Party and their vote is mainly based on tribal relations, or the reorganized Baathis who have entered mainstream politics under the label of Saleh Mutlaq’s National Dialogue Front. The latter ranked first in al-Anbar, signaling that Baathis have gained power in this region.

8.      Kurds relinquishing share with Sunnis’ increasing participation:

As predicted, with increased Sunni participation in elections of Nineveh, Salahuddin and Diyala, Kurds lost some seats in provincial councils. Sunnis had boycotted previous elections in these provinces whose population is a mixture of Kurds and Sunnis (and Shiites in provinces such as Diyala). Sunni parties gained majority in these provinces, the most important of all in Mosul province which had a Kurd-dominated council after the previous election.

With Sunnis participating in this election, the al-Hudba List led by radical anti-Kurd Atheel al-Nujaifi obtained %48 of votes against Kurds’ 25 percent and topped the election. With Sunnis increasing participation it is expected that Kurds lose a part of their share in power. However, Kurds will be the absolute majority in Kurd-dominated provinces of Dahuk, Arbil, Sulaymaniyyah and Kirkuk.