Israel is not the victorious side yet
Has Israel really decided to adopt a unilateral truce?
Israel hasn’t used the technical term ’truce’. It announced the stop of military operation but stated that tanks will remain in Gaza to respond to any likely rocket attack. So we must wait 24 hours after Israel stops its military operation. It is not yet clear if stopping the operation is due to the security deal between Rice and Livni on blocking arms smuggling into Gaza or a real truce is going to be established, or it is because of Israel’s inability to quench Hamas, for which there are many evidence. So we have to wait until the truce between Israel and Hamas is truly settled.
How do you see the anti-smuggling deal between Israel and United States?
I think it’s a dangerous pact. And according to an Arabic proverb it’s selling bear’s skin before catching it. Israel is trying to receive a guarantee from U.S. about keeping up pressure on Iran and Russia in future in order to put Barack Obama in a pre-determined situation.
Based on the agreement NATO navies will patrol the Gulf of Aden, Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea and east African coast which equals to creating an air of insecurity in international waters. We should wait and see if the pact will have a broader scope. Nothing is clear yet and every thing depends on the developments in Gaza.
Britain, France and Germany have announced that they’re ready to cooperate with Israel and United States in blocking arms struggling to Gaza. What are the outcomes?
It’s a question how they can control international waters when they can’t control Somalian pirates. But it seems when it comes to Israel everything becomes necessary and anything can be done. But when it comes to [Middle East] regional security things change, there is no potential, no budget and so on.
This indicates United States’ dual policy. Israel has ended the war failed and worn-out. They wanted to achieve a symbolic victory –as Olmert mentioned- in Bush’s final days and before the start of Obama’s presidency on the one hand, and before Knesset elections on the other hand. The security pact could be one of those symbolic victories that Mrs. Livni announces to Israeli citizens. However, the overall prospect of conflict is not clear yet.
Which side was the true winner of the war? Or Hamas and Israel are in the same situation?
Theoretically, if the attacking side doesn’t achieve its intended goals it is defeated and if the party under attack doesn’t raise the white flag it has achieved victory. So if we focus on the war, and not the casualties and destructions, Israel is not the winner yet. Israel is in a predicament for sure but for a better analysis we should wait more.
Where is Egypt located in the security pact between Israel and United States?
Egypt feels that despite all its contributions, it has been ignored. Neither for starting the war nor for ending it were Egyptian leaders consulted. Livni even declared war against Hamas in Cairo. And decision for ending the war was made in Washington. Egypt was humiliated in this story.
Because of this Mubarak gradually took a more radical stance and tried to get closer to other Arab countries and even Palestine. Egypt asked for stopping the aggression, reopening the border crossings and Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza. This Saturday, Ahmed Aboul Ghaith, the Egyptian FM, addressed Israel in an unprecedentedly critical way and said that the country ’is drunk with power and violence’.
Israel humiliated Egypt once more when it said it would accept the truce after Mubarak’s demand. If they really respected Egypt’s words they could have done it at first. What Israelis said implicitly meant that Egypt supported attack on Gaza and turned against it only in the 23rd day. All these made Egypt more radical.