Sanctions Supporting Negotiations: the Future of Iran-U.S. Relations
Following come the remarks by Hosein Ala’i, university professor and international affairs’ analyst
In his interview with ABC Channel, Barack Obama, the U.S. President-elect stated that he will follow a new approach in dealing with Iran.
Following come the remarks by Hosein Ala’i, university professor and international affairs’ analyst:
Apparently, Obama repeated what U.S. officials have already mentioned and he will have nothing new to say. What United States has expected from Iran up to now has been behaving in a way that pleases the superpower. United States has also attempted to define and develop an Israel-centered security arrangement in Middle East.
Therefore, U.S. tries to undo all the factors that undermine Israel’s security and debilitate all anti-Israel groups. United States doesn’t want Iran to oppose its plans in the region. It believes Iran is the culprit for U.S. failure in solving problems of Hezbollah, Hamas and other groups which resist Israel’s hegemony over the region.
Therefore, at first, United States wants Iran not to challenge its Middle East plans and allow for U.S. to advance them. United States regards Iran as the reason why the Annapolis conference and other plans for peace between Arabs and Israel have failed.
Influence of the Zionist lobby on Democrats and the future of Obama-Iran relations Against Iran Obama will be different only in tactics.
Bush and neo-conservatives were expected to be tougher; however, the Democrats are seeking changes as Obama has claimed. Diplomacy will probably have a more significant role. In fact, talks with Iran that were proposed by Obama will be the new agenda aimed to increase pressures on Iran. obama’s United States seeks negotiations with Iran. If that fails they will use it as a new leverage against Iran. Sanctions will be another tool that will back the negotiations. Hence, the [current] sanctions may continue and even cover a broader range in comparison with what Bush imposed.
However, in Obama’s term chances of a military attack against Iran will decrease, at least in short-term. The U.S. government may avoid using the rhetoric applied by Bush. Meanwhile, the macro-policies of Obama concerning Iran will not change meaningfully.
obama has been repeating Bush’s remarks about Tehran during both his nomination campaign inside the Democrat Party and the presidential elections. For example, a few days ago he stated that Iran is still United States’ biggest challenge.
But as it was said, there may be shifts in tactics in Obama’s administration that if meaningful and serious, can provide an opportunity for Washington to put its out-dated policies aside and get to know realities of the region. However, if Obama wants to use the shift only as a new way of exerting pressure on and controlling Iran, the story won’t change.
All these hypotheses depend on developments in Middle East. the United States can’t directly step into a new challenge in short-term since it is engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan (Obama is even thinking of sending more troops to Afghanistan) and there’s still the financial crisis inside the country.
The new administration has to prioritize domestic and financial problems. Hence, foreign policy and Middle East crises will become second priorities. In such a situation, even if Obama wasn’t elected and Republicans still held power, the possibility of change would be low, unless significant changes happened in Middle East. War in Gaza gains importance here. If Israel fails to win the war and Gaza remains in hands of the Islamic resistance, United States will face more challenges. But we have to wait and see what happens in Gaza at last.
Following come the remarks by Hosein Ala’i, university professor and international affairs’ analyst:
Apparently, Obama repeated what U.S. officials have already mentioned and he will have nothing new to say. What United States has expected from Iran up to now has been behaving in a way that pleases the superpower. United States has also attempted to define and develop an Israel-centered security arrangement in Middle East.
Therefore, U.S. tries to undo all the factors that undermine Israel’s security and debilitate all anti-Israel groups. United States doesn’t want Iran to oppose its plans in the region. It believes Iran is the culprit for U.S. failure in solving problems of Hezbollah, Hamas and other groups which resist Israel’s hegemony over the region.
Therefore, at first, United States wants Iran not to challenge its Middle East plans and allow for U.S. to advance them. United States regards Iran as the reason why the Annapolis conference and other plans for peace between Arabs and Israel have failed.
Influence of the Zionist lobby on Democrats and the future of Obama-Iran relations Against Iran Obama will be different only in tactics.
Bush and neo-conservatives were expected to be tougher; however, the Democrats are seeking changes as Obama has claimed. Diplomacy will probably have a more significant role. In fact, talks with Iran that were proposed by Obama will be the new agenda aimed to increase pressures on Iran. obama’s United States seeks negotiations with Iran. If that fails they will use it as a new leverage against Iran. Sanctions will be another tool that will back the negotiations. Hence, the [current] sanctions may continue and even cover a broader range in comparison with what Bush imposed.
However, in Obama’s term chances of a military attack against Iran will decrease, at least in short-term. The U.S. government may avoid using the rhetoric applied by Bush. Meanwhile, the macro-policies of Obama concerning Iran will not change meaningfully.
obama has been repeating Bush’s remarks about Tehran during both his nomination campaign inside the Democrat Party and the presidential elections. For example, a few days ago he stated that Iran is still United States’ biggest challenge.
But as it was said, there may be shifts in tactics in Obama’s administration that if meaningful and serious, can provide an opportunity for Washington to put its out-dated policies aside and get to know realities of the region. However, if Obama wants to use the shift only as a new way of exerting pressure on and controlling Iran, the story won’t change.
All these hypotheses depend on developments in Middle East. the United States can’t directly step into a new challenge in short-term since it is engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan (Obama is even thinking of sending more troops to Afghanistan) and there’s still the financial crisis inside the country.
The new administration has to prioritize domestic and financial problems. Hence, foreign policy and Middle East crises will become second priorities. In such a situation, even if Obama wasn’t elected and Republicans still held power, the possibility of change would be low, unless significant changes happened in Middle East. War in Gaza gains importance here. If Israel fails to win the war and Gaza remains in hands of the Islamic resistance, United States will face more challenges. But we have to wait and see what happens in Gaza at last.