Obama; Ahmadinejad’s last chance

Barack Obama’s victory in the US presidential election can be interpreted from different aspects. The common point in most of these interpretations is that this change in the US highest level of power is a turning point in the world and should be seen from different angles.

One of the most important international problems is undoubtedly Iran-US relations. Iran’s nuclear case has been a justification for UN Security Council to issue four resolutions against Iran. In the same way, US relations with Iran have been defined with other global powers’ cooperation, and shadowed by the nuclear case.

But the truth is that the resolution of crisis between Iran and the west (especially the US) is not an easy task. If it was, it would not have lasted three decades.

With the election of Barack Obama as US president, the resolution of this crisis seems easier. Obama’s statements pointing to the necessity of negotiation with leaders of the so-called US enemies (and his emphasis on Iran) have given way to a wave of optimism in resolving the problems on the two countries’ relations.

Obviously, Iran’s political groups look at the recent changes in the White House from different angles to survey the probable potentials and possibilities.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, had an understanding of the importance of Obama’s presence in the White House. So he made a very rare decision in the Islamic Republic’s political history and sent a congratulation letter to the new US president, which would be interpreted as a signal of willingness to negotiate. With ten weeks remaining to Obama’s inauguration to office, the democrats should think of the probable road map to deal and negotiate with Iran. When the winter comes, Obama’s salute to the office would not be far away from Ahmadinejad’s goodbye.

Do the democrats prefer to wait for the results of Iranian presidential election to activate their project of interactions with Iran? Or do they prefer to exploit the opportunity and make the maximum use of the Iranian bold president?

Obama and his team would soon answer these questions but it requires patience from Iran’s part. One point should not be forgotten here, and this is the impact of Obama’s interactions with Ahmadinejad’s government on the result of Iran’s presidential election.

Due to "Kordangate", Ahmadinejad is weak in the polls now. At the same time, the increased rates of inflation and unemployment have become very challenging because tackling these problems are exactly the promises Ahmadineajd made to the nation but now, he faces harsh criticisms and questions on his policies, even from the conservatives’ side.

In case of someone like Mohammad Khatami’s setting foot on the presidential race, the future would be dim for Ahmadinejad. Even the presence of some current and former Iranian officials like Qolamali Hadad Adel, Ali Akbar Velayati and Ali Larijani can be serious warnings for Ahmadinejad, because their positions seem more suitable for interacting with the White House and Obama. The Iranian conservatives would also support them.

In such circumstances, Ahmadineajd and his team have no other choice but to hope for an active response from Obama to ensure their continued presence at power.

With opening a window of negotiation, the new tenant of the White House can guarantee Ahmadinejad staying at power. As the economic, social and political evidences show, any other situation rather than negotiations with the US would lead to Ahmadinejad and his team failing to stay in power.

In such a way, Obama would be Ahmadinejad’s last chance for the next Iranian presidential election. Ahmadinejad knows this, and it was the main reason why he did not hesitate sending a congratulation letter to the US president-elect, and facing the criticism of his own men.