Fallacious and volatile, hardliner Ahmadinejad is back as presidential hopeful

Against all odds, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad signed up to run in Iran’s presidential elections, to be held in less than 40 days. In an obvious reference to Ahmadinejad, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei publicly said in September that he had advised a ‘pious brother’ against a potential presidential campaign, as it would polarize the election. Ahmadinejad had vowed compliance in the aftermath of the public call by the Supreme Leader. In February, Ahmadinejad said in a statement he would not back any candidate or party in the upcoming election, calling it his absolute and unalterable posture. One month passed and he was supporting with his former aide Hamid Baghaei, who had launch a bid. Here on Wednesday, Ahmadinejad went to the Interior Ministry alongside his controversial aides Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei and Hamid Baghaei, in what most observers believe to be a gesture in support of Baghaei. However, he took almost everyone by surprise when he signed up separately as a candidate. When asked by reporters if he considered candidacy against the Supreme Leader’s advice, he said he has just come to back Baghaei. However, his media advisor Ali Akbar Javanfekr has told reporters today that Ahmadinejad will not withdraw and “remains in the race until the very end”.

When Ahmadinejad held a presser last week after four years of blackout, intended to address a plethora of financial accusations against his administration, none of the major Principlist media outlets bothered to attend or provide coverage of any sort. Asked if he had any solution in the very likely case of Baghaei’s disqualification, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said he would pursue the issue in ways he could not reveal. Moreover, he explained at length that the Supreme Leader’s recommendation did not concern his participation as a citizen or a situation in which the election is already polarized.

Apart from the volatile rational Ahmadinejad has used to justify his rapid shifts, his candidacy may well stir up the political scene in Iran. Once enjoying full-fledged support from the establishment, the ex-president was estranged almost two years into his second presidential term over accusations that he resisted a Supreme Leader decree to retain the then Intelligence Minister Heydar Moslehi. Criticisms against Ahmadinejad over his aide and confidante Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, dubbed the leader of a deviationist circle, remained a touchy topic for Principlists and Reformists for the remaining two years. Ahmadinejad planned to back Mashaei’s presidential bid in 2013 in what many saw as a Putin-Medvedev scenario, where the Guardian Council intervened, barring Mashaei alongside the late Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani from the election. Today, some of few remaining supporters in the establishment renounced any alliance with him over what they saw as his disobedience of the Supreme Leader. Principlist observers are coming out with conspiracy theories that Ahmadinejad’s candidacy is meant to boost President Rouhani’s chances of reelection.

The Reformists and moderates in Iran, who will continue to back Hassan Rouhani, have no better view of Ahmadinejad, either. Critics of his domestic and foreign policies, they joined forces in the 2009 presidential race to block his reelection. They failed to do so after a disputed election, with two pro-reform candidates still under house arrest after they protested an alleged vote rigging in favor of Ahmadinejad. While many pro-reform analysts, including outspoken university professor Sadegh Zibakalam, are desperate to see the establishment punish Ahmadinejad, one of the main theorists and masterminds of the front, Saeed Hajarian has welcomed Ahmadinejad’s candidacy. In an interview with state-run Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA), Hajarian endorsed the ex-president’s justification that his decision to run is not against the Supreme Leader’s wish, as Hujjat al-Islam Ebrahim Raeisi’s campaign has already polarized the race. As many reform-minded individuals have noted, he should be free to run, which makes it sweeter for Reform advocates to see his defeat.

Judging by character, Ahmadinejad certainly loves the buzz of analyses and the outcries for and against his upset decision, but his surprise move puts the Guardian Council in a dilemma. The message conveyed by Ahmadinejad is that at least one of them, him or Baghaei, must be allowed to run. That is, should the Guardian Council opt to disqualify Baghaei, remains an ex-president once hailed for his revolutionary policies, whose disqualification would lead to the off-hand generalization that everyone with a presidential portfolio represent a bad choice for the establishment. On the other hand, there is no guarantee that Ahmadinejad withdraws if the Council endorses Baghaei’s competence. What if Ahmadinejad really remains in the battle up until the end? How should the Council interpret the Supreme Leader’s last year advice? We should all stay tuned for the many future updates, but one thing is for sure: Ahmadinejad is risking his political future.