As Iran’s Presidential Election Approaches, Conservatives Are Thinking If They Should Groom A Candidate

(Picture: Rouhani and Ghalibaf at the backstage of 2013 televised electoral debates.)

Last week, pro-reform website Entekhab published a series of interviews on the status quo in the Principlist camp and their plans for the upcoming presidential election.

Abolghassem Raoufian, member of the Principlist Istadegi (=resistance) Front, affiliated with former IRGC commander-in-chief and moderate Principlist Mohsen Rezaei, explains at length the camp’s strategy of unity and integrity, that is to say arriving at a single candidate, for the 2017 presidential race. However, the diversity of opinions within the camp has already cost them defeats in previous elections, presidential or parliamentary.

“If every Principlist faction agrees on the leadership of the Combatant Clergy Association, nobody can set conditions,” Entekhab quotes Raoufian as saying. Combatant Clergy Association is the de facto patron of conservative political groups in Iran, which still holds a degree of influence and consensus-building power over diverse groups calling themself Principlist. Raoufian uttered that remark in reference to rumors that Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf and the conservative Islamic Coalition Party demanded a general consensus on themselves in order to compete in 2017 presidential election. On the other hand, he also admits that some of the Principlist groups are inclined to work with the sitting president Hassan Rouhani. “I believe Rouhani could be a serious option [for the Combatant Clergy Association] to consider alongside others,” he said, expressing hope that in the remainder of his first term as the president, Rouhani could make positive measures to expand his vote base including resistance economy, Supreme Leader's model for Iran's economy. He further anticipates that ultraconservative cleric Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi’s bloc will back former chief nuclear negotiator and 2013 presidential candidate Saeed Jalili. However, it should come to terms with and accede to the wider coalition if the 2013 defeat is ever to be avoided Raoufian says.

Moderate Principlists led by Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani would try to collect votes for Rouhani to reelect, he says.

Hossein Kan’ani Moghaddam, member of the central council of Istadegi Front, also insists that the Principlists will try to reach a consensus on a single candidate. “Bitter past experiences have made the Principlists to arrive at the conclusion that they can demand a share of the cabinet [only] when they back a single candidate,” he tells Entekhab. He also raps naysayers, saying such groups should not identify themselves as Principlists. In remarks similar to those of Raoufian’s, Kan’ani Moghaddam says Larijani would independently support Rouhani. “The very fact that Larijani does not run is an advantage he has given to Rouhani,” he adds.

In response to a question about the likelihood of a Qalibaf campaign, Kan’ani Moghaddam implies that he cannot come out the victor if he continues his ‘outdated’ mottos. “Today, we cannot attract votes and guarantee victory through a movement led by a party or group. Victory in the elections requires the emergence of a new discourse that can attract grey [undecided] votes. Qalibaf cannot win good ballots merely using the Principlist discourse. He should put forward one that could also attract supporters of Rouhani”.

A Reformist politician, Ali Tajernia, tells Entekhab in a separate interview that the Principlists used to converge on what they did not want and diverge over what they wanted. “In this election and with Rouhani in the scene, they are having differences even on the thing they do not want to happen,” Tejernia adds. He goes on saying that the camp will decline to propose a candidate they know would not win, trying not to get into conflict with President Rouhani.

However, Tajenia says Principlists will try to sell this reluctance to introduce a promising candidate in order to Rouhani through political deals. “They cannot seek shares in the administration but expect the president to take their demands into account, too,” he adds.

Commenting on Ayatollah Mebah Yazdi’s faction, the former MP says they will try to find young new faces. “If such candidates fail to win ballots, it will not be considered as a defeat for the Principlists, and if they do, the group will be able to boast its potential to compete,” Tejernia explains.

He deems it a mistake on the Principlists part if they put forward a candidate in 2017 in order to groom him for the next election in 2021, because it is very unlikely for a person who has failed to gain enough votes to win in future elections. The same argument applies to Ghalibaf, he implies.