Rouhani to Scramble Cabinet?

A recent speculative article published on Sunday by Arman daily, affiliated with Hashemi Rafsanjani, suggests that Rouhani is, or should be, considering changes in his cabinet. Amid rumors that Rafsanjani is pressing Rouhani to withdraw from his chances of reelection in the upcoming presidential race, Motahareh Sharifi’s article can be a read as a manifesto of the former president.

“Now, three years have passed since the eleventh administration’s tenure began and the one year left is a golden year which means the administration’s engine should work more powerfully in order for what is offered as the achievements of the eleventh administration to be in line with what was pledged on the first day. To do so, the efficacy of the ministers proposed in 2013 should be reviewed so that other individuals, discerned to be able to realize the administration’s declared goals in a better and quicker way, can take over the ministries in question. This does not mean the sitting ministers are inefficient but signifies a shift for the administration’s success and agility, which will make public opinions content as plans materialize. If these cabinet changes and modifications are applied, there will be hope for the economy to go forward more smoothly and for good investments to take place in the country. Furthermore, a better political spirit will be established, the results of which will show up in the 2017 presidential election. The President should not be pressed to change the cabinet so that the changes can occur in peace, after further consultation with experts, in order to benefit all social strata.”         

A more aligned parliament, which takes over in a matter of days, has given rise to speculations and or expectations of the kind but the truth is there is not much time left for the Rouhani administration. However, reformist politician Abdollah Nasseri stresses the necessity of changes in Rouhani’s cabinet and tells Arman the society seeks acceleration in executive affairs to see a series of fundamental changes and that is the least Mr. Rouhani can do. “Not all the cabinet members were optimal for the President and Rouhani had no choice on certain individuals because of the considerations caused by votes of confidence,” he added. The article urges the administration to pluck up courage in the face of potential rumors and attacks and put aside standing on ceremony.

After dropping such free bits of advice, the article suddenly comes up with a ready-made list of “likely changes”, including four ministers, a vice president, a bureau chief and director of an organization. The article goes further and pays the names: vice president for executive affairs Mohammad Shariatmadari, Labor Minister Ali Rabiei, Industry Minister Mohammadreza Ne’matzadeh, Sport Minister Mahmoud Goudarzi, Education Minister Aliasghar Fani, and the Civil Servants Pension Organization’s director Mahmoud Eslamian. A passing reference is also made to “governors who failed to live up to the administration’s expectations”. But the article goes even further and offers an Ahmadinejad-esque recipe: “… it should be noted that some of the administration’s ministers and directors know the way to escape replacement and the President should make precise use of an element of surprise,” in dismissing them, just as Ahmadinejad did to get rid of his Foreign Affairs Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, back in 2010.

The article makes a U-turn, here. It criticizes Rabiei for his alleged appeasement with the preceding administration whose many financial abuses have been covered up or at least not unearthed as much as they should. In yet another surprising turn, all of a sudden, Arman becomes an advocate of the tenth parliament dominated by the principlists when it quotes from the MPs who criticized Rabiei for his failure to create jobs.

The minister of industry is also handed his own share by the article as it suggests that a petrochemical products black market has been formed as the result of the ministry’s negligence. Ne’matzadeh is also lambasted for his remarks labeling a campaign to halt purchases of cars manufactured domestically as a bold treachery to national interests, a sin, or a crime masterminded by the enemies of the Revolution. His potential successors? Mohammad Shariatmadari, Rouhani’s chief advisor Akbar Torkan and Deputy Vice President for Coordination and Supervision, Reza Viseh.

The article also strokes the hot seat of the Sports Minister for its neutrality and inaction. Mohammad Dadkan and Eslamian are named as the candidates to substitute Goudarzi. Education Minister Fani is also blamed for his failure to inure educational justice and for his alleged collusion and lobbying with the critics, including the Majlis.

According to the article, Shariatmadari and Eslamian remain in the cabinet but will assume new positions. Here on Monday, Arman daily featured a brief interview with Mohammad Hashemi, Rafsanjani’s brother and bureau chief at the Expediency Council, in which he said changes in the cabinet will not meet success unless there is an immediate necessity.

What is for sure, June, known in Iran to be the season for political phenomena, will have a lot to offer for a better understanding of the political atmosphere in Iran and the fate of the Rouhani administration.