Russia’s New Game with S300s
-The report published in an Israeli journal stating that Russia has taken Israel’s advice in refusing to send S300 missiles to Iran is false.
-Two reasons are mentioned in Russian media with regard to the delay in sending these missiles to Iran; the first one is that Iran has not yet paid the cost of these missiles to Russia. Of course it is not clear whether this claim is true or not, but following Iran’s refusal to file a complaint against Russia, it has signed a complementary agreement for the implementation of this agreement about which the Russian media claim Iran has not paid its due.
-Russian media claim that in the new contract Iran has demanded new concessions including localization of this system and its production inside Iran.
-Although the price of the second contract is higher than the first one, considering the above-mentioned conditions, Iran will not suffer from this agreement.
-The second reason which is stated is the issue of US pressures on Russia on the basis that implementation of this agreement is in violation of Resolution 2231 of the UN Security Council.
-I believe that Russia is analyzing whether this issue would cause Russia to enter the post-sanctions era with the West or not. In other words, Russia intends to make western countries realize that many regional issues including the crisis in Syria will not be resolved without Russia’s presence.
-Therefore, Russia intends to use the issue of the S300 missiles as a parameter in arranging its relations with the West. It means that, although all the problems between Russia and the West will not be resolved with this issue, Russia is making efforts to abolish all sanctions against this country.
-Russia is finally bound to deliver S300 missiles to Iran because it is legally committed and Putin is also interested in resolving this matter. But, as I mentioned before, they intend to use this atmosphere.
-Russia seeks to establish strategic relations with Iran and we can count on these claims.
-Hence, it cannot be said that these statements are baseless but I believe that these missiles will, sooner or later, be delivered to Iran but at the present time they are playing games.
-Similar to the nuclear issue wherein Iran negotiated with Hungary, it could begin new negotiations with China and France which have similar systems to those of the S300 so that the Russians would feel that Iran is in need of their system.
-Therefore, Iran must make Russia understand that the conditions have changed and after the nuclear agreement, Iran has the potential to negotiate with other countries and can substitute another country for Russia.