Turkey’s Risks and Options in Syria as It Competes with Russia

In an exclusive op-ed for Iranian Diplomacy, Mohammad-Ali Dastmali, a Mideast analyst, calls direct ground entry into Syria as potentially the most harmful mistake Erdoğan and Davutoğlu can make.

The Geneva III negotiations bore no fruit and nothing new was proposed in the Munich Security Conference to be bailed out of the Syrian crisis. Based on the recent occurrences, one could say that the game in Syria is gradually approaching its end. That perhaps explains why each player, and its direct and indirect affiliates, have accelerated their measures. Meanwhile, and on two opposing fronts, two players are on their toes to gain more: Russia and Turkey.

In the first front, the Syrian establishment and army, presided and commanded by Bashar al-Assad and backed by Iran, Hezbollah and Russia, have achieved several victories over the past few weeks, obviously challenging the necessity of a ceasefire. They believe they can continue their advances. In the front, Russia is so more avaricious than others that one could say Russia is involving its military and defense reputation to change the equilibrium, with the hope that, perhaps for the first time, ‘intervention’ and proxy measures will not end in favor of the US and instead become a guarantor of Moscow’s visions. Even though Iran and Hezbollah spare no efforts in backing Assad and Syria, judging from the atmosphere, it seems that for so many reasons, diplomatic and media victories would be collected by Russia.

What is going on in the other front? The United States has done no evidently effective air operation against ISIL in recent weeks and the Sunni coalition has achieved no specific victory in practice but utilized all its diplomatic and media power to escape defeat and change the results. In the front, Turkey is more in a rush than others. In the past few days, we have seen twice that the country has bombed sites belonging to the armed Kurds affiliated with PKK in parts of Aleppo. Erdoğan and Davutoğlu have done a lot more. These include Erdoğan’s constant phone contacts with the Saudi King, visit to the Qatari Emir, invitation of Mansour Hadi to Turkey, and pledge to dispatch two warships to the Gulf of Aden. Further come Davutoğlu’s harsh threats against Syrian Kurds, the announcement that Ankara will not let Azaz fall, propaganda pressure on Washington, the naming of the Democratic Union Party of Syria as terrorists, and constant emphasis on the bombing of civilian sites by Russian airplanes.

Why Turkey is sensing danger

Those who are fairly acquainted with Ahmet Davutoğlu’s personality know that the incumbent Turkish Prime Minister and the leader of the Justice and Development Party cannot be easily perturbed, but we have seen him raging again and again recently. In threatening remarks, Ahmet Davutoğlu repeatedly warned the Kurds affiliated with the PKK to cease their advances and leave the west of the Euphrates. It is because the recent victories of the joint Syria-Hezbollah-Iran front backed by constant bombings by the Russian air force have changed the equilibrium in the Aleppo battlefield. If the Kurds accomplish some missions in the Jarabulus and Azaz as a prepared ground arm, an arched wall will form between Kobani and Afrin, with three simultaneous adverse functions for Turkey:

First: It disconnects most Syrian opposition forces backed by Turkey including Jaysh al-Islam, the Free Army and other minor Turkmen groups and those close to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Second: It connects three segmented Kurd-dwelling areas in northern Syria and helps form a de facto region affiliated with the PKK on the Syrian-Turkish border.

Three: It counters the joint US-Turkey plans and the buffer zone scenario. Furthermore, in the complementary phase of these scenarios, between 300 and 500 thousand Syrian refugees may move to Turkey, adding up to the present burden. However, what makes Turkey even more furious is the crushing defeat of pivotal Syrian opposition forces. These are the forces invested upon by the government arising from the Justice and Development Party in the past four or five years, with hopes to bring an important part of them to power in the future.

Turkey’s options

To maintain its interests and reduce the future costs and damages, Turkey is facing huge obstacles particularly since Russia has started to saber rattle in the battlefield, making it more difficult and complicated for Erdoğan and Davutoğlu.

Insecure within and on borders with the Kurdistan region from constant PKK assaults, amid economic issues and media attacks from domestic opponents while there is little hope for open effective support from NATO, Turkey cannot get directly involved with Russia. In the meantime, Turkey is having serious tensions and differences with Iran and is now afraid to lose all its hopes in the Syria game. Thus, under such difficult circumstances, not only has it no choice but to retreat and hesitate, it is also expected, considering the theoretical and practical background of the Justice and Development Party and Erdoğan himself, to further increase pressure on the US and NATO, to convince Washington in order to change the game. Although many think the US is not considering anything but the election for the time being, in reality, it is nothing easy to give up on significant allies such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others. Washington has to interact with Europe and the anti-ISIL coalition, not so much as to pin down Russia but at other levels such as controlling the Kurds and trying to support Turkmen and Syrian opposition backed by Ankara, to change the game largely in favor of Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Turkey’s next option is to maintain the current coalition formed with the Saudis and others and take some serious measures in fighting ISIL. Nevertheless, the option for direct ground entry into Syria can be one of the most dangerous and counterproductive mistakes on the part of Erdoğan and Davutoğlu. It is unlikely that Ankara does so while the Russians are seeking revenge over the Sukhoi episode.

Meanwhile, there are other important issues including the next round of talks between Syria and the opposition, Germany’s support for a no-fly zone and the threat to refer Turkey’s case. However, of utmost importance is gaining power over real estate and influence over latest equilibriums. One should wait to see what card the US, Turkey and others will play in the coming days and weeks to be bailed out of the present situation and what tactics they will use against Russia’s measures.