Reality of Russia-Turkey Confrontation

There are speculations that the recent air incident between Russia and Turkey would further complicate the situation in Syria, but it will not lead to military confrontation between Moscow and Ankara because this confrontation is not to the benefit of either country.

In fact, by targeting the Russian jetfighter, Turkey was pursuing the attraction of NATO’s support to change the situation in Syria. The reason is that the Turkish officials were concerned about the closeness of the positions of the western officials, particularly France and the US, to Russia’s positions with regard to Syria. The western bloc, especially the US, has agreed on three points with Russia: Assad remaining in power, the establishment of a coalition government with Assad’s presence and moderate opposition of Damascus aimed at maintaining the power structure and cooperation to destroy ISIS. But the possible agreements and conditions are not desirable for Turkey.

On the other hand, Russia’s repeated attacks against ISIS’ positions in Syria have disrupted the trend of this group’s oil exports to Turkey, therefore, Ankara has lost its economic benefits as well. This is while it provided its oil needs through its deals with ISIS with very cheap prices. Hence, Turkish officials have taken the risk of attacking Russian jetfighters in order to disrupt the present equations. But they will not succeed in this regard because not only has Russia not reduced its attacks against ISIS positions after this air incident, but is continuing this path more decisively than before. In addition, NATO, on which Turkey had placed its hope, is not prepared to confront Russia and has asked both parties to refrain from taking escalating measures. But it seems that the crisis between Moscow and Ankara is temporary and Moscow officials will only punish Turkey politically and in security aspects. Russia might support Turkish opposition groups or reduce its diplomatic relations, but considering the economic conditions of Russia after the Ukraine crisis, the possibility of Russia using gas sanctions against Turkey and entering an economic war with this country is very weak.

Of course this point must not be ignored that the downing of the Russian jetfighter could impact the path of the resolution of the Syrian crisis. It seems that after the new developments, the trend of situations would further complicate the conditions and, at least, no clear prospect is seen in the cooperation of this country within the next two or three years. In order to have an accurate analysis of the future of the relations between the two countries, we must wait for the success of plans in holding free elections in Syria which necessitates the establishment of stability and security and destruction of the terrorist groups.