Ashraf Ghani Seeks Path to Stability
It seems that Mr. Ashraf Ghani is more inclined towards Pakistan than Mr. Karzai’s inclination towards India. What is the basis and strategy of turning from India to Pakistan?
Mr. Ashraf Ghani believes that Karzai’s inclination towards India was one of the main reasons behind the continuation of Taliban fighting, especially by the Haqqanis and the Hekmatyar Islamic Party which are supported by the Pakistani army. Therefore, through transactions with Pakistan, the possibility of balancing their policies would increase and Pakistani officials would be able to enter the Taliban and the Haqqani network into serious peace negotiations. This is the assessment of Ashraf Ghani from the developments of the region, thus, he attempts to move closer to Pakistan. Different viewpoints are proposed inside the National Unity Government including those by Abdullah Abdullah and his supporters. They have problems with Pakistan and used to cooperate with India, Iran and Russia. That is why the National Unity Government is faced with problems in pursuing this objective. Pakistan is aware of this matter and plays a complicated game with Afghanistan in order to, on one hand, intensify the tension between Abdullah and Ghani or, in other words, the northern team and the Pashtuns, and, on the other hand, prevent India’s influence in Afghanistan. Hence, it does not seem that Ashraf Ghani would be able to reach his objectives due to Pakistan’s complexities and force Pakistan to stop its support of its strategic Taliban tool to impact Afghanistan. It seems that Ashraf Ghani will gradually pursue Karzai’s policies. He attempts to reconcile with Pakistan but when he realizes that Pakistan will not change its policy in this regard, he might review his policies and turn to Abdullah’s policies.
A secret letter was sent by Ashraf Ghani to Islamabad. What was the objective behind sending this letter which was disclosed in the media?
This letter was sent after the pressures which were exerted after the signing of an understanding between General Raheel and Nawaz Sharif based on which the security apparatus was to be influenced by Pakistan. This measure was seriously criticized by the media and the public opinion and Abdullah and his supporters. Therefore, Ashraf Ghani, who considered himself the loser of this understanding, entered a game by sending this letter in order to compensate for this security letter of understanding. In fact, through sending this secret letter and then its disclosure in the media, Ashraf Ghani intends to show that he has not succumbed to Pakistan. This letter was a response to internal criticisms.
On the other hand, there seems to be a change in the Taliban’s approach. The presence of a delegation from Taliban in Iran and then their meetings with Chinese officials indicate a change in this group’s approach with regard to its policies in Afghanistan. Why has the Taliban pursued such a strategy?
The Taliban’s willingness to negotiate depends on the general policies of Central Asia and South Asia, particularly China. China’s investments in Pakistan are at 48 billion dollars. This investment will succeed when there is peace and security in the region. That is why the Taliban delegation, led by Tayyab Agha, first came to Iran and then to China. At the same time, the other faction intensifies its operations to the extent that Pakistan warns the Taliban to stop these operations. The Taliban’s prediction is that, after the gradual exit of the US from Afghanistan, new equations will be formed in the region. Therefore, they attempt to get close to countries with which they have problems in order to make a decision or operationalize General Petraeus’ plan wherein they will both share the power and have local powers in the 11 Pashtun-habited regions. Thus, Afghanistan will become a federal system. Furthermore, the Taliban knows that it can no longer destroy the government of Afghanistan through military measures and the government has also reached the conclusion that it cannot eliminate the Taliban from the scene through military methods. Despite the exit of the US forces, 5 military bases will remain in Afghanistan, hence, the Taliban cannot hope to capture Kabul by force. Thus, instead of the policy of using war to gain complete control of Afghanistan, they are satisfied with parts of the power. Pakistan attempts to reach an understanding with Ashraf Ghani. The trend pursued by Afghanistan is the solution proposed by General Petraeus wherein Pashtun-habited areas and some ministries will be in the hands of the Taliban so that they will leave war and be politically active. Of course, this is not easy at all.
Another Afghan challenge is the presence of ISIS and the Taliban’s positions regarding this group. How would you assess the political future of this country considering the presence of ISIS?
The presence of ISIS in Pakistan and Afghanistan is not a new issue. The new issue is the matters which were disclosed following the statements made by Putin. It is said that the Chechens, Uzbeks, and the Tajiks have come to the Badakhshan region in order to fight against Russia, China and Central Asia in the future. This is a serious threat for the governments of Pakistan, Afghanistan and also the Taliban. At the same time, fights have broken out between the Taliban and ISIS at two points. The reason was the recruitment of some high-ranking commanders of the Taliban by ISIS. ISIS has asked the Taliban commanders to join them in the establishment of the Islamic State. This has concerned the Taliban. The Taliban feels threatened by the presence of ISIS. The Taliban may weaken in the future and ISIS may increase its power by attracting Taliban commanders. There have been clashes between these two groups at some points. ISIS seeks to establish an Islamic State from Great Khorasan including Central Asia and parts of Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. It is not that ISIS has come from the Middle East to Afghanistan. They pursue the same objective in Iraq and Syria. ISIS believes that, based on scripture, the Apocalypse will start in this region. Of course, the Russians believe that the US and Europe may use ISIS against them in Central Asia, Chechnya, and …