Riyadh Looking to Make Up for Past Mistakes
Saudi Arabia and Iraq have decided to open their respective embassies. Prior to the coming to power of the new administration, Noori al-Maleki had accused Saudi Arabia of supporting ISIS. What will the consequences of the opening of the embassies be?
It seems that Saudi Arabia is now assured that it has made mistakes in its relations with Iraq during the past few years. Saudi Arabia was not willing to reestablish its relations with Iraq due to al-Maleki’s viewpoints, positions and his religious sect; although all of these were just excuses. In my talks with one of the Saudi officials, he clearly stated that they cannot tolerate the closeness of relations between Iraq and the Islamic Republic of Iran. This was a heavy issue for them. That is why I assume that Saudi Arabia has realized its mistakes. The illness of the Saudi King may also be another reason. There is this possibility that after King Abdullah, Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy will go through certain changes. In fact, the past policies may not be pursued.
Has this Saudi decision been impacted by the domestic issues particularly the issue of King Abdullah’s successor? Is Saudi Arabia attempting to define its relations with some countries before the demise of King Abdullah?
The countries of the region and the Persian Gulf, particularly Saudi Arabia, are witnessing a big development in the region and that is the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1. These countries predict that reaching an agreement is certain. Therefore, they consider it as a phenomenon whose effects would be reflected in all countries of the region. That is why these countries, and Saudi Arabia in particular, are taking measures so that they could gain maximum benefits from the consequences of Iran’s nuclear agreement with the western countries. The closeness of Saudi Arabia with Iraq, the reopening of the Syrian embassy in Kuwait, relations between the UAE and Iraq and even the UAE’s positions against Syria are all introductory measures to reduce the negative effects of a nuclear agreement on these countries. Saudi Arabia also seeks to reduce the negative impacts of this agreement.
The opening of the embassies will lead to the closeness of relations between Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Considering the fact that Iraq is attempting to act as a mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia, how could this issue prepare the ground for the improvement of relations between these two countries?
Since the coming to power of the 11th administration in Iran, Saudi Arabia has shown interest in the improvement of its relations with Iran. But the events in Syria and Iraq prevented this matter. Saudi Arabia knows that there must be a balance in the region in order to improve its relations with Iran. But despite its assumption, the power of the Islamic Republic of Iran has increased during the past year and events are turning to Iran’s benefit and this prevents the establishment of relations. On one hand, Saudi Arabia had assumed that with the entrance of ISIS, a kind of balance would be created in Iran’s interests in Iraq and Syria. But the capture of considerable parts of Iraq by ISIS has had opposite results against what the Saudi had wished for. Now there are two big events that are going to happen; first Iran’s nuclear issue and second the physical health of King Abdullah. His health has greatly deteriorated and this issue will cause changes in the foreign policy of Saudi Arabia. In other words, these changes will be made regarding Iran, Syria and Iraq.
Could the opening of embassies and closeness of relations between Baghdad and Riyadh help resolve the issue of ISIS in Iraq? This is while Saudi Arabia is one of the main countries which are accused of supporting ISIS.
Since the beginning of ISIS’ entrance into Iraq, there have been speculations about Saudi Arabia and Qatar. It was stated that ISIS has been able to capture parts of Iraq with the financial support of Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Thus, Saudi Arabia attempted to take certain measures to refute these accusations. By opening its embassy in Iraq, Saudi Arabia intends to show that it is cooperating with the government and not ISIS and the al-Nusra Front. Of course, Saudi Arabia has no other choice. I believe that it would be impossible for Saudi Arabia to take considerable measures in Iraq over the next year.
Considering Iraq’s positions with regard to Syria and also its relations with Iran, is there any guarantee that now that the embassies have opened, the grounds would not be prepared for a period of cold relations?
Right now, this issue has become clear for Riyadh that its past policies were mistakes. Saudi Arabia’s distance from Iraq caused this country to become close to Iraq. Saudi Arabia considers this matter to its disadvantage. Therefore, it would seem impossible that the past bitter experience would be repeated. Thus, the present Saudi government will not return to its previous policies and will attempt to establish better relations with the government of Iraq, particularly the Shiites because they do not have any problem with the Kurds and the Sunnis. The present problem is related to the government and the Shiites. That is why they attempt to get close to the government and the Shiites in order to make up for their past policies.