Geneva talks: a mountain to climb
From his hotel room in Geneva, Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had a good view of Mont Blanc. The sight did not calm him after the failure to reach an interim deal in Geneva on Sunday – it only reminded him that he faces, as the saying in Iran goes, a mountain of challenges. Everyone talks about a ticking clock to the Iranian uranium enrichment programme. But there is a political clock for Mr Zarif and his president, Hassan Rouhani, too, both of whom are moderates on the political spectrum at home. Each time they fail to bring home a deal, which for Iran means some alleviation of the sanctions, the pressure from hawks builds. The capacity to build a bomb, which Iran has always denied, is for the hawks the ultimate insurance policy against regime change. They take the lesson from Libya. Colonel Gaddafi became vulnerable only after he handed over his WMD.
The failure to sign an interim deal must seem doubly puzzling to Mr Zarif. Much of the atmospherics were good. Iranian and US diplomats spent more time talking to each other in 72 hours in Geneva than they had in the previous three decades. They were the most extensive talks the two countries had had with each other since the Islamic revolution in 1979. As if to confirm that a bridge had been crossed, Mr Zarif and Catherine Ashton, the EU foreign policy chief, appeared together for the first time to deliver the final statement. Both America and Iran seemed comfortable with the draft text of an agreement, which still remains secret. Yesterday, William Hague said that a deal was "on the table" and that the differences were narrow.
What few expected was the behaviour of France in these negotiations. As a former prime minister, Laurent Fabius cannot be considered a parvenu on the international stage. Nor would one expect Mr Fabius, as a minister of François Hollande's government, to feel bound by the foreign policy of Nicolas Sarkozy. And yet from the moment he arrived, Mr Fabius saw his role as the plug-puller in chief. His first act was to reveal details of negotiations that were meant to have been kept secret. His second was to tell France Inter radio that Paris would not accept a "fool's game"; and his third was to declare the results of the talks before Lady Ashton and Mr Zarif could do so jointly.
The French are worried about Iran's heavy-water reactor at Arak, which will produce plutonium as a byproduct in its spent fuel, and presents a proliferation risk. Arak, however, is at least one year away from starting, and the purpose of the Geneva framework agreement is to buy time for further negotiations to take place, in which Arak would feature large. Obviously, these are complex negotiations and the failure to come to an interim agreement is not just about the role played by one participant. But Mr Fabius is a reminder that the challenge facing Washington as it attempts to close the book on a decade of failed intervention comes from allies as well as from its foes. Barack Obama is losing trust and credibility. He needs to push back, particularly against his friends.
Binyamin Netanyahu launched a furious tirade against a possible deal before the US secretary of state, John Kerry, had departed for Geneva. Israel considers a bad deal with Iran to be worse than no deal at all. "Bad" would be any deal which leaves the Iranian capacity for making enriched uranium intact – Israel wants Iran to surrender the centrifuges it has created to enrich uranium. "Good" would be anything that sets the enrichment clock back. Mr Netanyahu is frightened that once an interim deal is signed, it will become harder for Israel to define and act on its own red lines with Iran.
Geneva must not be the end of the story. Ending up with no deal would be a disaster for everyone living in the region, including Israel. It would almost certainly push Saudi Arabia to acquire a bomb from Pakistan, and other Gulf states would follow. Any conceivable deal would involve the presence of more international inspectors, and build more trust. For those reasons alone, it must be pursued.