Give Iran a limited right to enrich

Can Iran and the west reach a deal that constrains the country’s nuclear programme while also lifting international sanctions on Tehran? For the first time in many years, the question is one that Iran watchers ask more in hope than fear. Last month, Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s new president, raised expectations of a breakthrough on his visit to the UN in New York. Last week, there was further progress in Geneva when top diplomats from Iran and six world powers held their most detailed discussions ever on the issue.

Details of what was discussed in Geneva between Iran and the US, UK, France, Germany, China and Russia have been kept confidential. That in itself is a good sign that serious negotiations are beginning. The decision to reconvene the parties next month is another good sign.

There is one other important indication of progress. In recent years, talks between Iran and the six have been aimed largely at a quick confidence-building agreement. In past negotiations, the US demanded that some Iranian nuclear facilities should be closed in exchange for a modest reversal of sanctions. But this dialogue failed, partly because it was never made clear to Iran what kind of nuclear programme it would retain in the long run.

In Geneva last week, there was a new approach. Iran and the west for the first time began discussing what the “end state” of the Iranian nuclear programme should be as well as exploring early confidence- building steps. This is important because Iran will start constraining its nuclear programme only if it knows that it will ultimately preserve some right to enrich uranium for domestic nuclear energy.

Any deal that leaves Iran with a right to continue enriching uranium will be deeply opposed by US Republicans and by the Israeli government. Their fear is that this will leave Iran in a position to build a nuclear bomb covertly at a later stage.

However, two things must be said. First, Iran is not going to sign a deal without a limited right to enrich, something that would at the very least allow it to save face. John Kerry, US secretary of state, conceded that point as a senator in 2009, telling the Financial Times that any insistence that Iran gives up completely on enrichment would be “ridiculous.”

Second, a deal can be done that gives Iran a permanent right to enrich but also allays international concerns. Iran would have to allow international bodies to conduct intrusive expectations of the programme at any time. It would also have to set a strict limit to the production of low-enriched uranium for nuclear energy.

Securing such a deal will be tough. But sceptics – whether they are the republicans in Congress or the government of Israel – must give the Geneva negotiators the time and space to arrive at a workable formula. Congress, in particular, would make a big mistake if it pressed ahead with yet more sanctions on Iran before the Geneva talks have had a chance to breathe.