Elections Managed by the Army
What has been the main accusation made against Pervez Musharraf in Pakistan and on what accusation was the last verdict issued against him based on?
Pervez Musharraf has different legal cases in different provinces. In the Sindh province, he has a case with regard to the killing of Benazir Bhutto; in the province of Balochistan, he is accused of killing Akbar Khan Bugti, the nationalist Baloch leader, and he has some other cases in other provinces as well. But his most important case is the issue of the dismissal of 8 judges who have returned to power and now lead the country’s High Court. They have opened a case against Musharraf, accusing him of treason due to the military coup he was in charge of and which removed the government of Nawaz Sharif. In fact, the most important case against Musharraf, which can create serious problems for him, is the coup which he led against Nawaz Sharif, and then the dismissal of the judges of the High Court. But in response to the question of whether any of these cases could lead to any positive results or not, it must be said that it seems that this issue depends on the challenges which exist between Pakistan’s political and military sectors. It means that Musharraf is the first General who has ever been put on trial and this is not good for the Pakistani army and they are certainly resisting behind the scenes. The verdict which was issued for Musharraf in Peshawar is that he is convicted and cannot hold any government positions as he did in the past. This means that they have prevented him from participating in the elections and this is the first measure which the judiciary has taken against Musharraf.
These days, the issue of election campaigns in Pakistan is also very significant. Could you talk a bit about the parties which are competing to gain victory in this election?
The issue of elections has always been a complicated issue in Pakistan. It seems that, under the present conditions, it has found expanded dimensions. There are two major parties which compete to gain power, and if free elections are held, one of these two parties will certainly win the election. There are also other parties:
1. The People’s Party, which was founded by Zulfaghar Ali Bhutto.
2. The Muslim League Party, which at the present time is divided into the Nawaz branch (supporters of Nawaz Sharif) and the Quaid-e-Azam branch (the ruling party that supports Pervez Musharraf), which enjoys a high status in the province of Punjab.
3. Smaller local parties which are related to the People’s Party or the Muslim League Party. This means that they form a coalition in the provinces of Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Sindh.
4. But under the present circumstances, there are also other parties which are religious. There are three main parties: A. The Jamaat-e-Islami Party, B. The Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, the branch led by Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman C. The Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, the branch led by Maulana Sami ul Haq. These three parties negotiate with the People’s Party and the Muslim League Party so that they can enter parliament through a coalition with them. Based on the latest reports, the People’s Party and the Muslim League Party have not been able to meet all their demands, hence, they are trying to introduce an independent candidate or form a coalition with the smaller parties.
There is a problem at this stage and that is that the smaller parties cannot create a serious challenge for the two main parties without the support of the army. Therefore, it seems that there are behind-the-scenes attempts by the army to unite the smaller parties and link the Islamic parties to them in order to create a third front, thus, establish a serious challenge against the two main parties. If this does take place, and it might already be taking shape, this election will have three fronts: the smaller parties which support the army and their connection with the Islamic parties, the Muslim League (the Nawaz Branch), and the Pakistan People’s Party. But, at this juncture, future events cannot be predicted and if the elections are held freely and without the intervention of the military, the People’s Party and the Muslim League will most probably win.
The issue of security in this election is an issue upon which different parties, particularly the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, have stressed and they have even stated that this election will not be held without tensions. What are these concerns about and how is the security situation of this country at the current time?
To date, the Taliban have targeted all party gatherings in the regions which had been victorious against the Islamic movements or had intended to win. Therefore, today a more serious issue is proposed and that is that the government and the security forces have not been able to maintain security, therefore, they want the army to intervene and safeguard the security of the elections. It seems that this trend is in line with what the army is doing behind the scenes, with which conditions would be provided wherein the parties would demand that the army intervene in the election. Therefore, the ground would be prepared for the defeat of the People’s Party and the Muslim League and they would be able to direct the movement towards the third faction which was previously mentioned (for example, the Tehreek-e-Insaf party of Imran Khan, whose cooperation with the army is clear to everyone). It seems from this angle that 20 to 30 parties participated in the meeting that was held in Karachi, among whom were representatives of the People’s Party and the Muslim League, but the fact of the matter is that 17 small parties have asked the army to intervene.
What measures will the Taliban take to create disorder and disrupt security in the election?
The Taliban disrupted nationalist party gatherings which were held in the Pakhtunkhwa province. It seems that they have behind-the-scenes ties with the religious parties. Their main goal is for religious groups to gain power in Waziristan and Pakhtunkhwa. Therefore, there is a covert plan about which no accurate information is available. But the evidence shows that the army plans to reach a compromise by provoking the Taliban, thus, it is necessary for the religious parties in the Pakhtunkhwa province to gain power. This means that when the religious parties gain power, they can reach an agreement with the Taliban and encourage them to stop their fight against the army, or for the Taliban to be placed on the path that the army wants, and that is fighting on the path of Afghanistan or India.