Chávez: return at last?

More than six weeks have now gone by since Hugo Chávez left for Cuba for his latest cancer surgery, and still very little is really known about how he is.

On Tuesday, information minister Ernesto Villegas announced an “encouraging” report, saying Venezuela’s president was in “good spirits” but that still no date has been fixed for his return.

This appeared to counter the latest rumours that Chávez is set to return in the coming days – one theory, advanced by analysts at Barclays in a note to clients, holds that the government is considering transferring Chávez back to Caracas soon, even though he is still supposed to be in a very delicate condition.

Such theories gathered pace with a statement to the Associated Press by Chávez’s younger brother, Argenis, who said that the president was expected back in the “coming days” – although he later retracted his comments, admitting that it was not his place to give out this kind of information, but instead the job of the vice-president, Nicolás Maduro, as well as Villegas.

Also, just hours before Villegas’ announcement, President Evo Morales told Bolivia’s congress that Chávez was doing physiotherapy in preparation for his homecoming.

Barclays argues that the purpose of an imminent return would be to swear Chávez in and confirm Maduro as vice-president, thus removing any doubt about the legality of the government. “After that, Chávez would resign, allowing Maduro to assume the presidency officially and run as incumbent in a new election that is supposed to be called within 30 days after that,” said Barclays.

Barclays continues:

This would be the best-case scenario for the government; besides Maduro’s enjoying the advantage of being the incumbent, this would lead to a presidential election in the very short term (likely March), affording him the sympathy effect created by Chávez’s health problems, and would still find the opposition in a weak position after the two defeats they suffered last year.

The conclusion drawn by Barclays is that any significant economic adjustments in the short term, such as a devaluation, are unlikely.

The reasoning is sound, although that is of course merely the best-case scenario. It remains perfectly possible that elections, if indeed they are to be held, will not come as soon as March, and that economic problems will continue to mount.

Shortages, for example, are becoming increasingly sensitive, and could be damaging for Maduro in an election campaign. Beyondbrics recently found that stores in fishing villages on Venezuela’s Caribbean coast, where the vast majority support Chávez, were selling two-week old fish as fisherman were not able to get hold of motor oil to keep their outboard motors working.

Of course, Maduro can always play the old card that “hoarders and speculators” are to blame for such shortages, but that will only get him so far.