What is going on in Lebanon?

- Lebanon’s political scene has always been highly sensitive and, as a result of developments in the region, the security situation inside the country changes rapidly.

- Today, the Syrian crisis is among the elements challenging the security situation in Lebanon while, more than ever before, making the intensification of tribal conflicts in this country probable.

- It seems that recent events in Saida and those we had seen many times before in Tripoli have been calculated. In particular, taking into account Syria’s developments and the escalation of tribal conflicts in this country and to some degree in its surrounding areas, the possibility that these measures have been taken in a calculated manner has strengthened.

- While Lebanon’s political atmosphere was moving towards tranquility following Wissam Hassan’s assassination, the recent events in Saida, if not controlled, can once again unsettle the political and security situation in Lebanon.

- In Saida, a number of people were killed and injured, adding to the sensitivity of the issue, particularly when taking into consideration Saida’s special condition.

- (In response to the question of whether the killing of a number of Hezbollah opponents in Saida is related to what happened in Tripoli, where a Hezbollah and Bashar Assad supporter was killed) Instead of raising issues of partisan and tribal revenge, we should pay attention to Lebanon’s security situation which may be disturbed under the present situation.

- Therefore, in my opinion, this event is related to general Lebanese developments which are affected by Syria’s developments.

- One can probably not completely reject the possibility of revenge in these events, however; Lebanon’s political scene is very complicated and it is possible to see this situation accelerating.

- The important point is that passionate parties in Lebanon do not seek to damage security inside this country.

- This means that, due to their knowledge of extra-Lebanon developments and regional objectives, there is hope that the major active forces in the Lebanese scene, particularly in the southern part of this country (the Resistance Movement and Hezbollah), will not demand mutual accountability; rather, they seek to correct matters, especially what has happened in Saida, by cooperating with national institutions like the army and intelligent party movements.

- In response to the question of which movement or country benefits from the unrest in Lebanon, a few assumptions must be considered. Firstly, there is no discussion about the issue that Lebanon is affected by the developments in Syria.

- This means that this situation has existed from the past, that is to say that both stability in Syria and unrest in this country impact the scene in Lebanon. Also, at the present time, traces of Syria's influence can be seen in Lebanon.

- But it seems that under the present circumstances, although it is possible that Syria, for a short period of time and only to send a message to the regional or international powers, might benefit from exporting the crisis to Lebanon, I believe that the enemy of the people of Lebanon, particularly the enemy of the Resistance, will benefit the most because it tries to keep Hezbollah, which has stood against Israeli aggression, occupied with the internal scene in Lebanon.

- Therefore, in my opinion, the Zionist regime benefits the most from the unrest in Lebanon, and under these conditions, the situation in Saida, which is very peculiar, helps this issue.

- Some groups, without comprehending by which movements the scene in Lebanon is impacted, are affected by these rumors and developments.

- Stirring the Lebanese scene is one part of the problem, but returning calm to it certainly needs great efforts. In my opinion, today, the government, the president, and several internal political groups attempt to maintain the stability of this country.