The Opportunity Hollande and Obama Can Give Iran

The one-term presidency of Nicolas Sarkozy was the golden era and a “honeymoon” in US-France relations. Now, and after 17 years, the Socialists have come to power under the leadership of Francois Hollande, a man with no official executive experience. The Socialists’ achievement of a majority in the parliament will pave the way for the next 5 years of Hollande’s presidency. US-France relations during Hollande’s tenure are of special importance for the US. Under present circumstances, relations between these two countries is an important element to remove US concerns over the economic crisis in Europe and the US, the NATO defensive strategy, cooperation between Europe and the US in foreign policy matters, and in Obama’s presidential campaign.
The US is interested in continuing Sarkozy’s path

Contrary to the curiosity of the US media during France’s 2007 elections, this time, the Americans showed little interest in the presidential race in this country. But the Obama administration showed a strong tendency to retain Sarkozy, and perhaps the same open tendency led to a certain ignorance in realizing the realities of the election scene in France and Sarkozy’s weak position in that country. 

Elements of linkage between Hollande and Obama

Hollande’s appeal to Obama on economic issues and the former’s efforts to prevent friction over US foreign policy are the two major axes of their linkage. The following elements are important in this regard:

-Francois Hollande’s appeal to Obama is primarily due to his belief in a policy of economic growth opposed to a policy of austerity measures and budget discipline.

-Hollande immediately sent two envoys to Washington to assure Obama of France’s cooperation with the US on the issues of Iran and Syria, and also NATO. Hollande is committed to France’s military commitments and will not greatly reduce the country’s defense budget.

-Instead of rejecting or refusing to discuss Sarkozy’s views on foreign policy, Hollande emphasizes the policies he will put forward. He has called Sarkozy’s policies unpredictable and without proper coordination with Washington in most cases, therefore, he has promised that French policies during his presidency will be clear and predictable.

- Two positions taken by Hollande, one, the withdrawal of French troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2012, and two, regarding the anti-missile defense in Europe, could have created friction between Obama and himself. With good timing, Hollande assured Obama that he did not intend to cause any trouble for him during the NATO Summit in Chicago on the 20th and 21st of May 2012, and this was of great importance for Obama for his US presidential campaign.

- In order to relieve Socialist discontent, Obama, who had shown support for Sarkozy until the very last moment, was the first person to congratulate Hollande by phone as soon as he was elected to the presidency.

-The White House’s most important concern is the Euro crisis, which is due to the fact that Greece’s monetary and financial situation is unclear. Therefore, as it had been predicted before, Obama’s position leaned toward European consensus in support of growth.

An opportunity for the Islamic Republic of Iran

France’s domestic and foreign challenges, including economic and social crises; the unprecedented and fundamental rift and difference of opinion between France’s elite, the Muslim immigration crisis, the priority of domestic issues--especially the economy-- over foreign affairs for Hollande; the fact that Hollande clearly pays less attention to foreign policy issues than Sarkozy; rarely seen differences of opinion between France, Britain, and Germany; Hollande’s non-alignment with Obama over the issues of Afghanistan, Iraq, and NATO, and France’s apparent weakness in its former colonies and the non-existence of a clear or even logical policy on this issue are only a few of the opportunities countries such as Iran have to make diplomatic efforts and play an important political role.