Syria; from Inside and Outside
Iranian Diplomacy held its twelfth forum on regional developments on Tuesday 27th of December 2011 in Tehran. The speakers presented their views on the current crisis in Syria. The summary of their statements follows:
Hossein Ala’i, former IRGC commander and strategic affairs analyst: Iran and Preparing for the Future of Syria
A regime’s survival depends on certain factors and we should check if they exist in the present regime in Syria:
a. The regime’s structure: the Syrian regime suffers from two problems: first, its outdated structure and second, the governance framework left over from the Cold War era in which all structures were determined by the two superpowers, the US and the Soviet Union, the latter a proponent of single party regimes for the Eastern Bloc members, with heavy reliance on military and security tools.
b. The citizens: the Syrian citizens do not support the current ruling system, and demand a democratic regime -which even the dictators try to show they favor and pursue. Bashar al-Assad has accepted that reforms are necessary. The very acceptance of the necessity of reform reveals the unfavorable status, as the people are clamoring for more economic liberty, welfare, etc. despite the crackdown in the large Syrian cities.
c. Foreign relations: this is a play ground becoming increasingly smaller for Syria, as both the Western governments and the Arab League, except Iraq, are against Assad’s government. Even Russia and China, which did not welcome the resolutions approved by the Security Council, do not support Assad, but they try to take advantage of this situation, while Iran may be the only remaining supporter of Damascus.
d. Economy: 400K oil barrels exported per day have so far saved the government. Due to the economic sanctions, Syria is losing the oil card and will face economic challenges. Limited economic relations with Iran cannot substitute the 2.8 billion dollar market of Turkey.
In sum, the future is not at all bright for the Syrian government. Bashar al-Assad’s options are:
a. Acceptance of calls from inside and outside to agree with reforms via elections, which means Assad’s surrender of power.
b. Suppression: that may be effective if limited, with minimum casualties and having a quick impact. When the number of casualties increases and the protestors react strongly, what follows is foreign intervention which could overthrow the government. Syria may be moving in this path.
c. Reconciliation: in the current situation, Iran should not put all of its eggs in Assad’s basket. Tehran should oppose any dictatorship or injustice in the Muslim World and stand up against the massacre of Sunnis. Iran can use this favorable situation to push for controlled reforms in Syria to prevent potential likely slaughter of religious and ethnic minorities and to support democratic movements in the region.
Mohammad-Ali Mohtadi, Middle East affairs analyst: The Future of the Region in Case of Assad’s Fall/Survival
The protests in Syria have a dual face: while they are part of the ‘awakening wave’ roaming across the Middle East and they have targeted the dictatorial system, they have also seen pre-meditated foreign involvement. Now the movement has actually turned into a sectarian struggle to divide Sunnis and Alawites to prevent the dominance of Iran and Hezbollah in the region. The Syrian crisis will deeply affect the future of the region, not only the future of the Resistance Movement [i.e. Hezbollah]. Any developments in Syria will have far-reaching regional and international repercussions. Middle East is now divided between two groups: the pro-Resistance countries which are against the domination of the US and Israel, and the so-called moderate countries in line with the interests of the US and Israel.
Washington views the Middle East developments as a threat to its interests and those of Israel, and tries to accelerate the fall of Assad, as the fall would cause the disintegration of Syria or could bring to power a regime aligned with Saudi Arabia. In the status quo, where the US has withdrawn from the region, if the Damascus’ regime remains in power and persists in being an active member of the Resistance Axis, in Arab countries which have undergone regime change, there may come elements to power who support the Palestinian cause; which means Saudi Arabia’s and other US’ allies’ isolation. But with the fall of Assad, chaos breaks out, the country implodes or a government comes into power alien to the Resistance. In that scenario, an attack by Israel on Lebanon to destroy Hezbollah will be certain, an action that paves the way for an attack on Iran. Therefore the crisis in Syria will be decisive for the future of the region and Iran.
Mohammad Irani, Iran's former ambassador to Lebanon: The Syrian Crisis and Its Ramifications for Regional Actors
Unlike the events in countries such as Yemen, the prolonged crisis in Syria has impelled many of the regional actors to engage with the issue. These actors include the states (such as France, Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia) and also regional and international institutions (such as the UN Human Rights Council, the Arab League, the EU and the Muslim Brotherhood). The Syrian crisis has created a new line-up in the region, with Russia, Lebanon, Iraq and Iran on the one hand and Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the Muslim Brotherhood on the other. In the latter, Turkey and Qatar used to have good relations with Syria and their position shift on an old friend surprised many political observers. The complication of Syria’s case has caused the actors involved to wander, as there are many discrepancies among them.
Iran stance in this struggle is worth a close study: Tehran is not certain about how to deal with the Syrian minority and majority, and up to when should it support the Resistance patron which has made some unacceptable moves. Hamas also faces a paradox regarding the country. There is even some rift inside the Muslim Brotherhood because of those who tend to support the Resistance. The French, acting carelessly in the beginning, should consider the Christian minorities’ interests. Saudi Arabia has some problems with Turkey and Qatar, as its rivals, the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council has troubles with Turkey, and the Arab League experiences struggle among its members. Any change in Syria significantly influences regional dynamics.
Hossein Jaber-Ansari, former ambassador to Libya: Assad Will Not Go Down, But Neither Will the Crisis
Syria's case can be interpreted from three viewpoints: domestic, regional and international. In Syria, the totalitarian Syrian government is led by Assad and the Baath Party at the top. The ethnic composition in Syria includes 73 percent Sunnis, 12-13 percent Alawites, a small minority of Twelver Shi’as, 10 percent Christians, and three percent Druzes. This very composition has always encouraged of the minorities to enter the military to join the Baath Party and gain power. As a minority, Alawites stand atop in the power hierarchy, while Sunnis also play a significant role in the government. So far, the protests are still organized mostly in smaller cities while the major cities have been left untouched. The Syrian business sector has not lent itself to the events and prefers to by a bystander, despite the fact that many of them are Sunnis. The opposition has failed to give out a united voice so far, while the government continues massacres and suppression. These complicated factors make the prediction of the future very hard, while some scenarios lie ahead: the suppression could finally lead to the favorable result for the government; the regime becomes weaker; the government will fall, which I believe is not too strong a possibility; while the massacres continues, foreign interventions occurs and we will witness another Libya, though geopolitical considerations reduces the chances of this scenario; or in the most likely case, the crisis will end following a compromise between Assad and the opposition.
Hassan Sheikh-ol-Eslam, diplomatic advisor to Majles’ Speaker Ali Larijani: Iran Should Mediate in the Syrian Crisis